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18-20 March 2012 severe prospects


tornadotony

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Got a garage for the cars? At the least you may get some very large hail.

Nope, we live in an apartment complex. In fact, the best area to go to is a wide open room in the middle of our apartment (bordered by another unit) in an interior corner. Nothing better than that, unfortunately. Bathroom and closets all border exterior walls.

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That first left split (that is now exiting Bandera County) has the most impressive updraft going on visible satellite. Huge overshooting top casting a shadow on the anvil.

Also if you loop a hi-res visible satellite, you can see the TOR warned supercell has an updraft that builds south and east with time. You expect to see the right turn with radar images, but it's impressive to see it on satellite.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0632 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86...

VALID 192332Z - 200030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86

CONTINUES.

BASED ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...ERN OK INTO NWRN AR PORTION OF

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO

WATCH.

SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE DEVELOPING OVER ERN OK WHERE BOUNDARY

LAYER WARMING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. HODOGRAPHS ARE

VERY LARGE IN THIS REGION ALONG LLJ AXIS AND SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL

MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. GIVEN

THE DISCRETE MODE WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LINE AND SIZE

OF HODOGRAPHS...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH AN

ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.

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