March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[SACRUS]

Some more pronounced breaks in the clouds pushing east from C-PA. Perhaps we can finally see some sun by noon.

[bluewave]

I'd rather see the ridge axis over or east of us than west of us. In that position, a high can easily nudge in and backdoor us again. I'd rather have a deep SWerly flow aloft to sfc.

NAM looks pretty brutal for those living near the coast throughout the weekend into early next week. S and SE winds this time of year won't get anyone near the shore much above 50. We really need the SW winds back.

The Euro keeps pushing back the warmth as the high with the huge block keeps the onshore flow going.

The hope is the high eventually gets far enough south to get a SW component to the wind for a day or two.

Another possible fly in the ointment is what eventually happens with the cutoff around 8-10 days out which

is a low confidence forecast this many days away.

?????

[earthlight]

dgex still indicative of 70 F temps all of next week with a few days near 80.

[Weathergun]

I'd rather see the ridge axis over or east of us than west of us. In that position, a high can easily nudge in and backdoor us again. I'd rather have a deep SWerly flow aloft to sfc.

NAM looks pretty brutal for those living near the coast throughout the weekend into early next week. S and SE winds this time of year won't get anyone near the shore much above 50. We really need the SW winds back.

I agree, with ridge ultimately being positioned further east, being ideal for more warmth into our region. But the point, was to show that more above average temps, at least, are down the road.

[Analog96]

dgex still indicative of 70 F temps all of next week with a few days near 80.

I still think EWR is at least 80 on Wed or Thurs of next week, and maybe even at least 85.

[winterwarlock]

It's better than the crapola we had to be tortured mercilessly all day yesterday.

oh yes mid to upper 70s with sunshine is crap. How old are you? You need to start going outside and enjoying life and the world around it

[MJO812]

43 and drizzle here. Disgusting.

[pazzo83]

43 and drizzle here. Disgusting.

Yep. Hopefully it burns off in a few hours.

[Isotherm]

oh yes mid to upper 70s with sunshine is crap. How old are you? You need to start going outside and enjoying life and the world around it

Not everyone enjoys summer weather 12 months of the year like some on here.

[bluewave]

Looking like the warmest St. Patrick's Day on record for many locations.

[SnoSki14]

Yeah it's really nasty today, only mid 40s right now, it was similar yesterday as well along with a chilly east wind. High is forecast to get up to 60 today, but I don't know. The forecast said it would get into the upper 60s yesterday for today.

[ag3]

NAM has a persistent easterly flow right through Monday.

Have to watch for temperature busts to the low side, if the marine influence remains.

[jm1220]

NAM has a persistent easterly flow right through Monday.

Have to watch for temperature busts to the low side, if the marine influence remains.

I doubt anyone makes it to 60 from Newark east if that persists. It would also likely be cloudier/foggier than forecasted now since the marine layer would be solidly in place.

[forkyfork]

The nam has ssw flow starting sunday

[Zir0b]

NAM has a persistent easterly flow right through Monday.

Have to watch for temperature busts to the low side, if the marine influence remains.

Not entirely true. Starting Sunday the wind takes on a more southerly direction. So still not good for LI/most of NYC. But just inland from EWR west should experience warm temperatures

[Analog96]

The nam has ssw flow starting sunday

I think Sunday we break out of it. Tomorrow is probably still chilly, but not quite as chilly as today. Sunday probably makes a run for 70.

[earthlight]

It depends on where you live this weekend and possibly next week too. The SW winds only make it to around NYC. Anywhere east of there and you're going to be in the 50s or colder. Just west of NYC could see 70s for several days in a row starting this weekend.

[ag3]

I meant to write east winds until Sunday. Mistyped Monday.

But even Sunday morning at 8am, the winds are easterly for most of the jersey shore and are just turning southerly for NYC:

[ag3]

And even Sunday at 11am, the winds still have an easterly component and dont fully switch to southerly until the afternoon:

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I still think EWR is at least 80 on Wed or Thurs of next week, and maybe even at least 85.

I know I thought this a few days ago, but the feature that's there now and wasn't back then is the upper low coming out of the southern stream and moving toward the mid-Atlantic. That system has the effect of re-locating the surface high that would have pumped downsloping w-nw winds into our region further north and east making our wind flow more southerly or even s-se-erly for most of next week. This changes the temperature picture (if you believe these maps) entirely to one where we are lucky to get into the lower 70s, at least in NYC and Long Island. It is possible that this UL coming out of the southern stream is overdone and will have less impact. But it is also possible that the latest maps are correct in showing this effect.

WX/PT

[Sundog]

20 degree bust today? LGA is 43 at 1pm.

[TheTrials]

I will break each and every one of AG3's fishing rods if I have this weather playing golf Sunday.

MISERABLE!

[SACRUS]

Clearing almost to Allentown what a miserable couple of days this has been.

If anything allergies have lessened a bit the last 2 days.

[Shades]

20 degree bust today? LGA is 43 at 1pm.

Not only that, but the nearest 60 degree reading is two states away in central PA (even all of NJ is in the 40's/50's)

[SnoSki14]

Most of the country is in spring mode today but were stuck in the marine chill. It's always a dagger in March and April even when were supposed to get major warm ups, nowhere near the forecasted high for today of 60F, two back to back busts so far.

[NYCSuburbs]

The 12z ECM from what I can tell on the free maps looks like it even backs away from the 1-2 days of strong warmth... now it's in line with the CMC with keeping the weak low at H5 stuck over the area, with the GFS not showing it as strong but trending towards a clearer signal of a weak low at H5. If it wasn't for this, temperatures could've easily surged to 80+ degrees... if this trend is correct, NYC would be lucky to reach 70 degrees for over 2 days next week. Although I'm hoping for the warm solution I wouldn't care too much if it doesn't verify; we're still barely in spring, even if NYC misses this one there's still going to be plenty of warm spells later on in the season.

[Snowlover76]

Today was a bust temperature wise.

[tornadojay]

yea, today was kind of a bust... it's getting close to 50 by me though.. it's up to 48 and the temp has been fairly steady on the rise.

[Shades]

Today was a bust temperature wise.

Once a landbreeze establishes later this evening (post-frontal passage), expect temperatures to rise overnight, at least prior to midnight from NYC westward (although the spike, albeit less pronounced, might also be evident further out on the Island as well). Highs today will likely occur after dark, and most likely won't drop much thereafter. 60's are probably out of reach today, but mid-upper 50's are yet still possible.

[Snowlover76]

Once a landbreeze establishes later this evening (post-frontal passage), expect temperatures to rise overnight, at least prior to midnight from NYC westward (although the spike, albeit less pronounced, might also be evident further out on the Island as well). Highs today will likely occur after dark, and most likely won't drop much thereafter. 60's are probably out of reach today, but mid-upper 50's are yet still possible.

I am at 44.7 right now, I doubt I can get up to the middle 50's my midnight.

I think that tomorrow stays below 55 for the island.