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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

Anyone else see the 18z GFS? Surface flow remains southerly for the mid atlantic/NJ coast through late next week w/ SW/WSW flow over New England. If so we may see a situation where eastern NJ/NYC/LI is stuck in the low/mid 60s with 70s/torch in SNE.

I think NJ will be fine..but NYC and LI could struggle in such a setup. The SE winds will really hurt portions of the Mid Atlantic.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_18z/f75.gif

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

I think NJ will be fine..but NYC and LI could struggle in such a setup. The SE winds will really hurt portions of the Mid Atlantic.

http://www.meteo.psu...APA_18z/f75.gif

I could see Manhattan/Bronx and Western Queens/Bkln being 60s/70s while the eastern/southern parts of the city in the 50s. Saw that a lot last Spring when midtown was like 75 and JFK was 55 (hell we've seen that this year already).

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

The chance of a series of days where the departure is +15 to +20 is crazy rare just as the chance of a month with a +8 to +10 departure in this part of the country. The same is true in the negative direction. Eventually climatology (or something close to it) prevails.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

I was in Chicago yesterday when it was in the low 80s. F'ing. Amazing.

Yuk

The Midwest and Great Lakes region is pretty much where all the warmth is located.

This seems very similar to what had happened over the summer where the heat dome was stuck over the Midwest for much of the month of July.

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

Anyone else see the 18z GFS? Surface flow remains southerly for the mid atlantic/NJ coast through late next week w/ SW/WSW flow over New England. If so we may see a situation where eastern NJ/NYC/LI is stuck in the low/mid 60s with 70s/torch in SNE.

It didn't seem to be as cold as the ECM but it was still noticeably colder than its previous runs, taking a step towards adding yet another feature to disrupt the warmth. With the high pressure and ridging not near the ideal location for a torch in NYC, I'm thinking that the slightly cooler solutions make more sense, and at this time I'm going with the idea of the peak of the warmth in the region staying in New England. Areas away from the coast, especially towards NJ, shouldn't be much colder IMO with 70s still likely, and at the very least 1-2 days of 70s in NYC, but the warmest conditions would still end up further north/NE. As you mentioned the high pressure could still change to a more favorable location for some areas to reach 80 degrees, but as we've seen with this week and the weekend where the models started out warm but later on backed away from the intensity, this could perhaps be the start of a similar trend for this week, with maybe 1-2 very warm days but otherwise not as warm.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

This is starting to get really annoying, how many times can you post the same thing?

Ditto for "The Torch"....

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

It didn't seem to be as cold as the ECM but it was still noticeably colder than its previous runs, taking a step towards adding yet another feature to disrupt the warmth. With the high pressure and ridging not near the ideal location for a torch in NYC, I'm thinking that the slightly cooler solutions make more sense, and at this time I'm going with the idea of the peak of the warmth in the region staying in New England. Areas away from the coast, especially towards NJ, shouldn't be much colder IMO with 70s still likely, and at the very least 1-2 days of 70s in NYC, but the warmest conditions would still end up further north/NE. As you mentioned the high pressure could still change to a more favorable location for some areas to reach 80 degrees, but as we've seen with this week and the weekend where the models started out warm but later on backed away from the intensity, this could perhaps be the start of a similar trend for this week, with maybe 1-2 very warm days but otherwise not as warm.

I just do not see NYC hitting 80 degrees in March. It's just too hard to do IMO. But I do see 2-4 days in the low to middle 70's in NYC.

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

I just do not see NYC hitting 80 degrees in March. It's just too hard to do IMO. But I do see 2-4 days in the low to middle 70's in NYC.

For the stations inside the city (KNYC, LGA, JFK), it's definitely happened before, but in this case I don't think the set up is right for such a scenario to likely happen. West of the city though, especially in Newark, if the warmer scenario verifies where the warm air mass is a little further south with WSW/SW winds, I can see how temperatures may reach 80 degrees, but that's still just a possibility and 70s are much more likely at this time. Even if 80 degrees isn't reached, having this much warmth for the region in March is still very impressive as it is not something that happens often.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

For the stations inside the city (KNYC, LGA, JFK), it's definitely happened before, but in this case I don't think the set up is right for such a scenario to likely happen. West of the city though, especially in Newark, if the warmer scenario verifies where the warm air mass is a little further south with WSW/SW winds, I can see how temperatures may reach 80 degrees, but that's still just a possibility and 70s are much more likely at this time. Even if 80 degrees isn't reached, having this much warmth for the region in March is still very impressive as it is not something that happens often.

Newark I can see hitting 80, but that I can see because Newark is a terrible UHI violater

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

How many times? I'm having trouble accessing the data...

Per Uncle W I found this..

86 3/29/1945

86 3/31/1998.

85 3/13/1990.

84 3/21/1921

84 3/28/1945.........

83 3/20/1945.........

82 3/16/1990.........

82 3/28/1921.........

82 3/30/1998

82 3/29/1985.........

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