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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Per Uncle W I found this..

86 3/29/1945

86 3/31/1998.

85 3/13/1990.

84 3/21/1921

84 3/28/1945.........

83 3/20/1945.........

82 3/16/1990.........

82 3/28/1921.........

82 3/30/1998

82 3/29/1985.........

So that is 144 March's...31 days per month...4464 days (approx)...and 10 days with a temp over 82 F...putting the odds at about 446:1 of an 82 F or better day in March at CPK.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

I wish there was stats for highs over 80 degrees.

Seems it never snows in Northern Massapequa

Seems I've often heard that kind of talk before

It never snows in Massapequa

But girl, don't they warn ya

It pours man it pours

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

Possible temperature bust for tomorrow? Just as quickly as the NAM trended warmer last night to show nearly 70 degrees, it's retreating just as quickly to once again keep highs stuck in the 50s...

6z NAM hour 39:

Is it just me or did it also get cooler for St. Patrick's day as well?

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

You remember anything from the ice age?

...and snow still always changed to rain at JM's house in Long Beach.

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

I guess the BDCF will be staying for some time.

And the one day where I wanted it ti be warm is going to be cold now. Just my luck.

:lol:

Although the NAM doesn't go beyond hour 84, its last frame for what it's worth already looks more like the GFS than the previous NAM runs with even less warmth spreading into the region and a less favorable high pressure, perhaps signaling that if it was to be extended, it could also perhaps support the lower temperature potential for next week.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

Although the NAM doesn't go beyond hour 84, its last frame for what it's worth already looks more like the GFS than the previous NAM runs with even less warmth spreading into the region and a less favorable high pressure, perhaps signaling that if it was to be extended, it could also perhaps support the lower temperature potential for next week.

So I guess it has a similar look to what the 18z GFS had with the placement of the vort to the south and east of us.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

The cooler highs for tomorrow make sense; the backdoor front is currently making decent headway SW into the mid atlantic. Temps have fallen into the upper 40s as far SW as northeastern MD and southern DE. Generally backdoors overstay their welcome from my experience, with a slower than progged retreat.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

00z ECMWF says the warm spell will be gone at hour 240... taking the model verbatim, but it looks temporary. It will probably change during the next model run.

If there is a cold shot, next weekend, it will probably short-lived. The latest MJO forecasts have it weakening in phase 7, after next week. Also the GFS and Euro ensembles are bring another trough over the West coast next weekend and pumping up another rolling ridge into Central and Eastern US:

ic2tky.jpg

sm59up.jpg

2a9qrut.jpg

20ithm8.jpg

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

If there is a cold shot, next weekend, it will probably short-lived. The latest MJO forecasts have it weakening in phase 7, after next week. Also the GFS and Euro ensembles are bring another trough over the West coast next weekend and pumping up another rolling ridge into Central and Eastern US:

ic2tky.jpg

sm59up.jpg

2a9qrut.jpg

20ithm8.jpg

I'd rather see the ridge axis over or east of us than west of us. In that position, a high can easily nudge in and backdoor us again. I'd rather have a deep SWerly flow aloft to sfc.

NAM looks pretty brutal for those living near the coast throughout the weekend into early next week. S and SE winds this time of year won't get anyone near the shore much above 50. We really need the SW winds back.

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