Jefflaw77 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Even with the Clouds- it's so nice out for March 21... And it may warm up again next week! wow.. Just wow... Maybe we'll be swimming by Mid April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Even with the Clouds- it's so nice out for March 21... And it may warm up again next week! wow.. Just wow... Maybe we'll be swimming by Mid April! This is like late May/early June type stuff with the overcast and temps still touching 70 in midtown. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 still pretty cloudy over here, but temp still managed to climb up to 67.. Even a half hour to an hour of late afternoon sun should push me up a good 5 degrees or so... all in all, can't complain... feels nice out there today. Cloudy all day here as well. Feels very muggy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Even with the Clouds- it's so nice out for March 21... And it may warm up again next week! wow.. Just wow... Maybe we'll be swimming by Mid April! In mid April, we might be wishing it was mid March again. These extremes do even themselves out in the long term even though we are clearly experiencing a global warming regime. It's very possible that April completely switches and it actually colder than March given how warm it's been this month. And warm up next week will not be sustained, it'll be more typical with a day or two or warmth and then back to normal because the ridge will be broken down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Back into the 70s by the middle of next week after the weekend "cool down" For one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 For one day. Right. Go long torch, surprised people haven't learned this by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I don't know about you guys, but even if it only gets into the "70's" one day next week, if it's from 55-62 for the foreseeable future... I'm fine w/ that... Let me know when below normal temps are possible.. low to mid 40's and rain will be miserable if that comes to fruition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 In mid April, we might be wishing it was mid March again. These extremes do even themselves out in the long term even though we are clearly experiencing a global warming regime. It's very possible that April completely switches and it actually colder than March given how warm it's been this month. And warm up next week will not be sustained, it'll be more typical with a day or two or warmth and then back to normal because the ridge will be broken down. I don't really see anything but transient cool downs in an overall warmer than normal pattern. NYC has a shot at continuing it's above normal month streak right through the summer. Check out how little cold air there has been over North America since last fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I don't really see anything but transient cool downs in an overall warmer than normal pattern. NYC has a shot at continuing it's above normal month streak right through the summer. Check out how little cold air there has been over North America since last fall. Verbatim, the GFS has had a couple warmer days followed by cooler periods. I'd be fine with that as I'm not ready for summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 sun coming out in midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Verbatim, the GFS has had a couple warmer days followed by cooler periods. I'd be fine with that as I'm not ready for summer. Count on the cooler periods under performing and the warmer ones over performing in this type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Count on the cooler periods under performing and the warmer ones over performing in this type of pattern. Sooner or later we could see a change. I don't think we can count on what you said. Just hope it's not too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 21, 2012 Author Share Posted March 21, 2012 Count on the cooler periods under performing and the warmer ones over performing in this type of pattern. yep.. that's been the story of the winter.. quick, underperforming shots of cold air. That is pretty much what the new Euro run is suggesting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Yep, love the folks who have been saying, enjoy this, it's gonna get cold! And where exactly is the cold air going to come from????? while we won't be +20-+30, we'll still be +5-+15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Not much luck for NAM's cloud cover forecast today... the E-wall maps showed the cloud cover mostly burning off by 18z, but it's still stuck in place, with temperatures near 70 degrees, below the forecast high. It'll be interesting to see if tomorrow ends up following the forecasts or ending up cloudier than expected again; the NAM has near 80 degrees in NE NJ, with cloud cover burning off by 14z (10 AM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 SOI values continue to run on the positive side, with dailies in the the 10-12 range, and the latest monthly still above 0. After a major downturn last month, atmospheric angular momentum has become less negative and is actually a bit on the positive side now (which indicates a weakening of the La Nina atmospheric state). However, with SOI still solidly positive and SSTA showing no signs of rapidly warming just yet, the La Nina base state overall should persist IMO for at least the next month. That in conjunction with the fairly stable northern annular mode and NAO (both of which show no signs of tanking) could allow the above normal temp regime to continue. With that being said, tropical forcing moves out of the "torch phases" and into the cooler phases over the next couple weeks, so there's no doubt in my mind we'll see some chillier air back into the Northeats for early April. The thing is, it'll feel arctic compared to our current weather, but still normal to above on the whole (generally 50s for highs). I'm going to write up a longer post soon on the pattern going into spring, but for now, I see nothing pointing towards a colder than normal April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Looks like about a 10 degree temp bust for many parts of the region due to the low level moisture in the lower boundary layer hanging tough. KBML is at 61F with a fcst high in the low 70s today. Tomorrow could be cloudy along the coastal mid atlantic but I think our area should clear out fine. Sfc flow is fairly light though, so sea breezes are likely and locations within 10 miles of the ocean probably won't break 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Yep, love the folks who have been saying, enjoy this, it's gonna get cold! And where exactly is the cold air going to come from????? while we won't be +20-+30, we'll still be +5-+15. I really don't think this warmth lasts, and we'll probably see average periods. The models are advertising cold fronts, which is very feasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Cloudy and cool day. Stuck in the upper 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Mid to upper 50s the first week of April is normal. It's not like we have to drop into the 30s or 40s for highs to achieve this. I really don't think this warmth lasts, and we'll probably see average periods. The models are advertising cold fronts, which is very feasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Nice day today, much better than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Yep, love the folks who have been saying, enjoy this, it's gonna get cold! And where exactly is the cold air going to come from????? while we won't be +20-+30, we'll still be +5-+15. The only place on earth thats been warm has been the USA... the rest of the planet is colder then normal for March...so wheres the heat gonna come from? http://policlimate.c...sr_t2m_anom.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 The only place on earth thats been warm has been the USA... the rest of the planet is colder then normal for March...so wheres the heat gonna come from? http://policlimate.c...sr_t2m_anom.png That's the same pattern that has been locked in for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Looks like the overall warmer than normal pattern should linger. The warmth wont be as strong as the last week/10 days but there could be some strong warmth for a day or two followed by closer to normal to round out overall warm the next week to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 NAM's back to 80 now http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_18z/temp26.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Belmar NJ is currently the coolest location on the east coast at 55F per my quick glance, save for Cape Cod. Temps even in Bar Harbor/downeast Maine are slightly warmer than coastal NJ -- that shows you that type of pattern we're in. Far reaching torch, and the normal S-N temp gradient is out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 serious fog tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Very foggy out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Socked in with the thickest fog I've seen in a while here in NE NJ. Visibility is definitely <1/8 mile. KEWR reporting 0.0 visibility as of 11PM. Hopefully it clears out quick tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Socked in with the thickest fog I've seen in a while here in NE NJ. Visibility is definitely <1/8 mile. KEWR reporting 0.0 visibility as of 11PM. Hopefully it clears out quick tomorrow morning. Same here on the south shore of Long Islsnd, I have never seen fog this thick. Looks like the fog I saw in Ireland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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