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NAM's big storm for Feb 24th ...there's some reason to see why it can be done

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Hey Craig... I remember those days. It seemed like you were constantly buried in deeps snow over there. :)

To Nzucker......I remember when I was doing wxobs in Jaffrey back in the 90's that We had back to back storms there...In 95-96 I had 168" of snow for that season...It was amazing..Taunton and Gray Maine confirmed my totals...It was quite the year..amazing snow...We moved to Hull Mass..It was crappy snowfall wise..of course this was living 400 ft from the beach and then last June we moved to Maine and thinking it was going to be big year for snow and all..Not much at all..We've had like 4 storms in all..significant..no...boring..yes...I have only used a plow operator once! Just one of those crazy lame ass years for snow here in Maine..Last year,my mom's plow operator ran out of places to put the snow...go figure..It is what it is..but I'll tell ya..living in the Monadnocks was something..that elevation..I was at 1080feet and live up past the ball park in Jaffrey carriage hill drive area..those were the years!

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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We looking at the same Euro 12z? It was off a touch on the placement, but it had solid .25"+ 3 hour totals. This is the 24h 12z euro forecast from yesterday. Shift that a few miles north and you've got your .4" LE tickling parts of CT.

hmmmm...good question. i don't know. my products thru 18z today didn't have anyone in SNE nearing a quarter inch.

and BDR it had like .15" thru 12z ... they had .53" that's a massive bust.

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mattb65

mattb65

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We looking at the same Euro 12z? It was off a touch on the placement, but it had solid .25"+ 3 hour totals. This is the 24h 12z euro forecast from yesterday. Shift that a few miles north and you've got your .4" LE tickling parts of CT.

Seems like you and him are agreeing - if you add the 3 hr increments it would add up to about 0.2-0.3" for southern CT. It was a bit too far south on placement and a bit too light on total QPF. Much better than most guidance, but a blend of 60% euro and 40% gfs/nam would probably have been the most accurate forecast since GFS was too far north and also a bit light on qpf at 12z while NAM was better on QPF but still a bit heavy QPF and had it too far north.

Based on bright banding inflating the radar estimates, I'd bet the actual was probably around 0.4-0.5 where the best band set up.

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Logan11

Logan11

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JB really capped off his winter of shame with a post on their website last night. He made a special post after the 18Z NAM saying that his partner Joe D'Aleo (aka former Dr. Dewpoint) would get a lot of snow where he lives in southern NH. Now that's bad to blow a forecast for your own partner inside 12 hours of the event. LOL

His big winter wx event for next week is on life support also....

There will be a stripe of shame across S NH and N MA.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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hmmmm...good question. i don't know. my products thru 18z today didn't have anyone in SNE nearing a quarter inch.

and BDR it had like .15" thru 12z ... they had .53" that's a massive bust.

Weird. I was only loosely relying on the euro....as you know these events are tricky where you have a super intense band that's fading as it comes east. The 0z Euro did pretty well too. Def seems like there's some differences in the model packages that are available in terms of QPF on the euro. Even aside of that although it generally seems to have the placement/theme correct it's often been too light in the heavier areas but it's something that I'd rather have than the NAM being over all the time.

Seems like you and him are agreeing - if you add the 3 hr increments it would add up to about 0.2-0.3" for southern CT. It was a bit too far south on placement and a bit too light on total QPF. Much better than most guidance, but a blend of 60% euro and 40% gfs/nam would probably have been the most accurate forecast since GFS was too far north and also a bit light on qpf at 12z while NAM was better on QPF but still a bit heavy QPF and had it too far north.

Based on bright banding inflating the radar estimates, I'd bet the actual was probably around 0.4-0.5 where the best band set up.

Agreed and I think Matt some of it is just the data packages showing different numbers. That Euro map had .375+ in a few spots but just to the south. Shift that north and it was pretty good overall. Not bad for a 24 hour forecast when the alternative is the NAM/GFS

Not for nothing but man did NWS lay an egg, both OKX and BOX, yikes, it happens but I have to agree with OswegoWX. Why did OKX issue advisories after the fact?

Bad.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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I strongly agree ... not sure why it's received any Kudos... wasn't nearly wet enough down there (and too wet to the north) and far too warm in areas that got snow.

As usual the NAM had a good idea with a band of strong lift in the mesoscale where that LLJ ran up against some potent frontogenesis colocated with good warm advection.

However, the NAM (and most mesoscale models) tend to keep the band of strong lift too wide and in reality it's a smaller and more narrow/localized band. Perfect reason to take the ideas from mesoscale models and incorporate the placement/thoughts of global models in terms of identifying the best forcing.

I'll have to be honest last night I thought a band of 3-6 was possible somewhere if we set up a batch of strong enough mesoscale forcing. Globals insisted it would be over CT and NAM/HRRR/RGEM showed the potential for it to go to town. Unfortunately even a 18 hour forecast can have large swings (75 miles) or relatively localized/narrow features.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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I strongly agree ... not sure why it's received any Kudos... wasn't nearly wet enough down there (and too wet to the north) and far too warm in areas that got snow.

yeah i'm not sure what it is, but on so many events this winter, a lot of products have just kind of sucked on the details inside of 24 hours. i can't really figure it out.

the NCEP products were far far too bullish the further N and E you went, but they did get the good mid-level punch right as it entered SW NE. i don't think .15" QPF would have been able to drop 2-4" of snow in this kind of antecedent environment - so the euro definitely had that wrong.

i think big-picture wise guidance has been pretty good (there have been so few events it's hard to say with much certainty i suppose) this winter. like last week with the non-storm...that was a pretty solid performance for 7 days of NWP.

eh, i don't know. :lol:

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

LOl he said he has plenty, hes at 2500 feet and lots of winter left for them. Hey told ya you would break 20!!

Yeah, I was just looking at Kevin's thread with snow totals. I was getting a good chuckle at yours and mine totals. You've got me by .5" right now, and when I clicked last years totals you had my by .5" at the end of the year as well.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I was just looking at Kevin's thread with snow totals.  I was getting a good chuckle at yours and mine totals.  You've got me by .5" right now, and when I clicked last years totals you had my by .5" at the end of the year as well.

Just proves neither one of us slant stick, that is as close as it gets. Another SWFE coming up?

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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JB really capped off his winter of shame with a post on their website last night. He made a special post after the 18Z NAM saying that his partner Joe D'Aleo (aka former Dr. Dewpoint) would get a lot of snow where he lives in southern NH. Now that's bad to blow a forecast for your own partner inside 12 hours of the event. LOL

His big winter wx event for next week is on life support also....

Yep-that was pretty comical-called for a "mantle of white" in NH...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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As usual the NAM had a good idea with a band of strong lift in the mesoscale where that LLJ ran up against some potent frontogenesis colocated with good warm advection.

However, the NAM (and most mesoscale models) tend to keep the band of strong lift too wide and in reality it's a smaller and more narrow/localized band. Perfect reason to take the ideas from mesoscale models and incorporate the placement/thoughts of global models in terms of identifying the best forcing.

I'll have to be honest last night I thought a band of 3-6 was possible somewhere if we set up a batch of strong enough mesoscale forcing. Globals insisted it would be over CT and NAM/HRRR/RGEM showed the potential for it to go to town. Unfortunately even a 18 hour forecast can have large swings (75 miles) or relatively localized/narrow features.

Yes, solid points being made here...

It's also a bit off putting to see the 00z, then 06z back off on the speed of the 2ndary development because the intesificaiton rate and supplying physics really were going to be paramount for that 2ndary QPF max -

Having underperformed this front end aspect to a greater degree (at least where I am in middle Massachusetts), the prospect of now quite plausibly missing the 2nd action ...eh, I suppose it's par for the course this season. I suppose some now casting is in order.

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