Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 7 of the 12 00z GFS members agree with the 12z operational ECM for explosive MA-NE cyclogenesis centered around 108 hours +. There is some difference on timing, but the 7 members agree with one another, and then cross-guidance type is also intriguing for interaction of SW opening closed low with transient albeit well timed northern stream trough passage. The whole thing phases in as a then powerful open wave that has a big bomb going off overhead. Of the other 5 ...saying they don't agree is a stretch; they do carry variation on the theme of the 7. At this point ...regardless of boundary layer being totally wrong thickness wise, getting ANYTHING to happen is of paramount important first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 BOX /Euro allowing for a Tip scenario THERE IS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES HAVE A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS ACTUALLY WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW/ICE TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR FOR A TIME THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI...WITH THE TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. BUT ITS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH IF THE MODELS TREND TO A CHILLIER/MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE LOW THU NIGHT/FRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 BOX /Euro allowing for a Tip scenario THERE IS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES HAVE A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS ACTUALLY WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW/ICE TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR FOR A TIME THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI...WITH THE TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. BUT ITS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH IF THE MODELS TREND TO A CHILLIER/MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE LOW THU NIGHT/FRI. Bomb... big, big snows CNE/NNE and maybe the Berkshires. This would redeem this winter a bit and maybe shows the GFS's idea of a storm developing further south along the front is right. As opposed to a St Lawrence River Valley cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Euro ensembles are kind of mild, but may allow far interior snow or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Euro ensembles are kind of mild, but may allow far interior snow or ice. Any chance for areas around here. As happy as I am for N VT- N NH- NW ME, I'd like to see something around here too. 2 suppressed deals followed by a cutter makes sense though in the wonter of '11-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Any chance for areas around here. As happy as I am for N VT- N NH- NW ME, I'd like to see something around here too. Personally I don't expect much here. Unless, somehow the low develops far offshore, but I think this at least hugs the coast and moves overhead. We'll have to wait until after next weekend, but even that might be NNE. However, there will be a colder airmass in place, so it could be a snow to icy mix for the interior.....at least to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Any chance for areas around here. As happy as I am for N VT- N NH- NW ME, I'd like to see something around here too. 2 suppressed deals followed by a cutter makes sense though in the wonter of '11-12. Don't worry, it'll find a way to rain up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 At least we may have the chance of a strong low this week. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 EDIT: Friday looks warmer than Thursday. Mid 50s. Another great week of spring upcoming. Highs Mon-Fri --- 40, 44, 53, 52, 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 At least we may have the chance of a strong low this week. LOL. This will also find a way to end up as three strung out 1001mb "lows" with light rain showers moving across New England. lol. At this point a strong low would be nice with some wind or something interesting... maybe strong pressure falls/rises, you know, rapidly changing weather. Anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This will also find a way to end up as three strung out 1001mb "lows" with light rain showers moving across New England. lol. At this point a strong low would be nice with some wind or something interesting... maybe strong pressure falls/rises, you know, rapidly changing weather. Anything. For your sake, I hope the euro is right. GFS would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This will also find a way to end up as three strung out 1001mb "lows" with light rain showers moving across New England. lol. At this point a strong low would be nice with some wind or something interesting... maybe strong pressure falls/rises, you know, rapidly changing weather. Anything. You got your 968mb bombing low. Caveat is that it's just SE of Hudson Bay on the GFS. 60s for Fairfield - CC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 For your sake, I hope the euro is right. GFS would be bad. February Madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Personally I don't expect much here. Unless, somehow the low develops far offshore, but I think this at least hugs the coast and moves overhead. We'll have to wait until after next weekend, but even that might be NNE. However, there will be a colder airmass in place, so it could be a snow to icy mix for the interior.....at least to start. Expect a stern lecture from Will about giving up on Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 February Madness. GFS would get Joe arrested for being nude on Friday. 60s for parts of the area if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Expect a stern lecture from Will about giving up on Feb. I mean for the storm later in the week. I think him and I agree on the rest of Feb and March. It could suck, but at least for the interior..it's not really worth giving up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Expect a stern lecture from Will about giving up on Feb. Feb is lost here IMO. Looking less and less likely that we get anything more than balmy showers late week. I think normal climo for MAR would be 12" or so here. That would double my sf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Feb is definitely in danger if sucking in SNE. No question. That storm on day 8 could easily cut west. But for those in the far interior..it still could be a snow to ice kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I mean for the storm later in the week. I think him and I agree on the rest of Feb and March. It could suck, but at least for the interior..it's not really worth giving up. You're right.....I'll remain optimistic because HubbDave and Pete may do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 GFS would get Joe arrested for being nude on Friday. 60s for parts of the area if that happened. Yeah... I have absolutely no interest in actually trying to figure this out or get excited/down about any solution at this point. I do like the weenie ECM run just because this winter has been so bad we haven't even had many fake modeled storms that look good, much less ones that actually pan out. Its fun to dream but this winter I'm pretty much set up for the worst case scenario, so anything else would be a bonus. The expectations are about as low as they can go, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Hey, guess what.....do I hear futility inside of futility lol Feb 1984 with 1" is my worst Feb on record....I'm beating it by.......(checks sig)....1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 You're right.....I'll remain optimistic because HubbDave and Pete may do well. Giving up in March at 1000' probably isn't a good idea even in the crappiest of winters. Obviously further east and lower we need a colder airmass, but there is a reason why a good chunk of ern mass averages 8-13" in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This could be two out of three met winter months snowless imby....not even '79-'80 pulled that off. Nothing has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Giving up in March at 1000' probably isn't a good idea even in the crappiest of winters. Obviously further east and lower we need a colder airmass, but there is a reason why a good chunk of ern mass averages 8-13" in March. Well, I'm just giving up on the rest of Feb, though I suspect March blows and I have a real shot at the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This could be two out of three met winter months snowless imby....not even '79-'80 pulled that off. Nothing has. That's impressive.... this February is going down as something special up here, too. I think we are on pace for 15% of normal up at the ski resort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 That's impressive.... this February is going down as something special up here, too. I think we are on pace for 15% of normal up at the ski resort. I'm sorry, but the magnitude of this suckage is impressive....I just have to appreciate it. Would I ever wish for it again in my life or my children's (if) lives, no.....but I am trying to make the best of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Bomb... big, big snows CNE/NNE and maybe the Berkshires. This would redeem this winter a bit and maybe shows the GFS's idea of a storm developing further south along the front is right. As opposed to a St Lawrence River Valley cutter. I took a look at the WunderMap 12Z ECMWF output when I got in this afternoon, and wasn’t too surprised when I saw that this thread had picked up a bit. That 12Z run basically has three potential systems coming through starting on Wednesday, with that third one really showing some big snow potential. It was quite a change from what the 00z run showed, so I guess we’ll have to see if this is a real trend/change. BTV talks about the three systems in their long term discussion from this afternoon. While there may be some warmth, this is certainly a more active weather pattern than the past couple of weeks: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ACTIVE BUT MILD. PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CANADA. OUR REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH ECMWF HAVING A SLOWER SOLUTION. THEREFORE...HAVE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MENTIONED FROM ABOUT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FROM USING A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 That's impressive.... this February is going down as something special up here, too. I think we are on pace for 15% of normal up at the ski resort. You'd never know it from your ski posts...seems like the dude in the red jacket is always up to his ears in powder. Ray, never give up. You'll get buried...this is the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I'm pretty confident the 2/23 storm will give us a better chance of a few thunderstorms than it will snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I'm pretty confident the 2/23 storm will give us a better chance of a few thunderstorms than it will snow Some of the ensemble members turn it into an absolute bomb to our west...that wouldat least be exciting for wind potential. Euro ensemble showing a lot more uncertainty though on where it goes or how strong it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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