Feb 23 Disorganized Mess

[TheBudMan]

Where is the 10 days of cold Jb just promised

I swear Ji posts about JB and he responds instantly...it's like a secret signal gets sent and he knows Ji has p@wned him

For the record, weatherbell winter forecast said this winter was not going to be as bad as the last 2.But it has been warmer than I thought

I am hearing alot of people attacking me, cause I guess I am the biggest target. They should go check their ideas earlier, colder than I

Not excusing my errors, just say some of these folks ought to look in the mirror instead of out the window.I guess that is the world today

[HoarfrostHubb]

Love it... December was cutter central

Jan and most of Feb was all south

Now back to cutters.... lol

[Damage In Tolland]

A bit late, but Tim Kelly echoes Sam and Will's thoughts a bit - thunder and wind?

The Friday low goes back to the track of earlier this winter, up through New York. That means we get the south wind, warmer air and a rain snow line possibly as far north as the Canadian Boarder. temperatures may be near 60 in southern New England Friday with rain and thunder. Though the European weather model keeps the door ope for a slightly more eastern track, that model also deepens the low to 964 millibars, lower Barometric Pressure than Hurricane Bob. If that verifies, then we may have some colder air, enough for snow in Vermont, but we also get 60-80 mph gusts Friday Night and Saturday.

LOL...60-80 mph gusts

[HoarfrostHubb]

LOL...60-80 mph gusts

Maybe he means at the summit of Stowe, where he and pf dance nude in the dendrites?

You hate wind, dontcha?

[dendrite]

All wind fails here. I'll enjoy my 13mph sustained gusting to 28.

[Cold Miser]

A bit late, but Tim Kelly echoes Sam and Will's thoughts a bit - thunder and wind?

The Friday low goes back to the track of earlier this winter, up through New York. That means we get the south wind, warmer air and a rain snow line possibly as far north as the Canadian Boarder. temperatures may be near 60 in southern New England Friday with rain and thunder. Though the European weather model keeps the door ope for a slightly more eastern track, that model also deepens the low to 964 millibars, lower Barometric Pressure than Hurricane Bob. If that verifies, then we may have some colder air, enough for snow in Vermont, but we also get 60-80 mph gusts Friday Night and Saturday.

Welcome to Spring in February.

Wiz is chomping at the bit for those thunderstorms, and 60-80mph gusts.

Congrats on the official end of non-winter in SNE.

[CoastalWx]

Those gusts will be in the mountains probably, I think that's what he means.

[Mr Torchey]

Friday looks fun, and donny baseball is king. What an epic performance, he never waivered.

[CoastalWx]

Friday looks fun, and donny baseball is king. What an epic performance, he never waivered.

He's done a lot of it through analogs and pattern recognition, which most energy guys have done as well. The only person who hasn't done well is JB.

[Mr Torchey]

This week should get Steve's attention, need to check out tides and moon for the south coast.

[Mr Torchey]

He's done a lot of it through analogs and pattern recognition, which most energy guys have done as well. The only person who hasn't done well is JB.

Is Don a professional forecaster?

[CoastalWx]

Is Don a professional forecaster?

I don't think so. I think he's just a good amateur forecaster. I might be wrong though. This winter isn't a tough one to forecast. +AO combined with a Nina and unfavorable MJO phases equals bad. Yes we have had some favorable set ups, but some bad luck also helped fook us too. And even during the more favorable pattern, I think lingering fast flow near 60 N really prevented some amplification in our neck of the woods. We did have the AO go negative, but guess what..sh*t luck and the cold got dumped into Europe. That easily could have happened here and late January into early February would have been a lot different looking. I think you can also trace some of that, to the PVs up north and by Kamchatka. Sort of like the anti last winter where you just knew every storm would hit us. Now, every storm screws us. The overall pattern is locked.

[dryslot]

And futility will continue, Friday looks like a disaster

[Mr Torchey]

I don't think so. I think he's just a good amateur forecaster. I might be wrong though. This winter isn't a tough one to forecast. +AO combined with a Nina and unfavorable MJO phases equals bad. Yes we have had some favorable set ups, but some bad luck also helped fook us too. And even during the more favorable pattern, I think lingering fast flow near 60 N really prevented some amplification in our neck of the woods. We did have the AO go negative, but guess what..sh*t luck and the cold got dumped into Europe. That easily could have happened here and late January into early February would have been a lot different looking. I think you can also trace some of that, to the PVs up north and by Kamchatka. Sort of like the anti last winter where you just knew every storm would hit us. Now, every storm screws us. The overall pattern is locked.

The pattern seems like its been pretty stable for the better part of a year now. What are you're thoughts as we head deeper into March then into spring? To me things look pretty warm, at least the first half of spring, hopefully it will be a seemless transition without any mud season to speak of, warmer sst's and fairly dry soil conditions..perhaps one of those rare springs where eastern mass is actually halfway decent.

[Damage In Tolland]

This weeks storm should wipe out most of the snowcover that remains from Southern VT south

[CoastalWx]

The pattern seems like its been pretty stable for the better part of a year now. What are you're thoughts as we head deeper into March then into spring? To me things look pretty warm, at least the first half of spring, hopefully it will be a seemless transition without any mud season to speak of, warmer sst's and fairly dry soil conditions..perhaps one of those rare springs where eastern mass is actually halfway decent.

Well dry soils may have some say, but that can easily change as you know. I think a month from now, we can see where we are in that dept. I think March is above normal and maybe even April. I hear some question marks about May though. We better get some precip soon, because you don't want to go into Spring, dry. Last year was wet, but the effects of that are gone. I think in general, of you have a -PNA out west, it will tend to be warmer in the east. However, wavelengths shorten and you begin to have those trough-ridge-trough setups which opens the door for cutoffs.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well dry soils may have some say, but that can easily change as you know. I think a month from now, we can see where we are in that dept. I think March is above normal and maybe even April. I hear some question marks about May though. We better get some precip soon, because you don't want to go into Spring, dry. Last year was wet, but the effects of that are gone. I think in general, of you have a -PNA out west, it will tend to be warmer in the east. However, wavelengths shorten and you begin to have those trough-ridge-trough setups which opens the door for cutoffs.

i can see more red flag warnings issued this spring.. than we had snowflakes

[powderfreak]

Maybe he means at the summit of Stowe, where he and pf dance nude in the dendrites?

You hate wind, dontcha?

LOL... maybe if we can get into a good H85 jet. Last year we hit 102mph out of the south with a strong cutter.

There will be no dendrites up here unless its on the backside NW flow upslope... though I did see Tim tossing me a bone there by saying maybe snow in VT. Highly doubt it though.

[Mr Torchey]

Well dry soils may have some say, but that can easily change as you know. I think a month from now, we can see where we are in that dept. I think March is above normal and maybe even April. I hear some question marks about May though. We better get some precip soon, because you don't want to go into Spring, dry. Last year was wet, but the effects of that are gone. I think in general, of you have a -PNA out west, it will tend to be warmer in the east. However, wavelengths shorten and you begin to have those trough-ridge-trough setups which opens the door for cutoffs.

We are very dry, couple warm days in late march early april with a strong west wind and it gets ugly fast.

[powderfreak]

This weeks storm should wipe out most of the snowcover that remains from Southern VT south

It may wipe out some of the interior valleys in northern VT, too. Not like we have strong arctic air that'll hold in the valleys up this way and keep us from torching away snow. Also strong flow aloft always mixes it up a bit better than some weak SW flow.

We've been still solid snow cover but its getting very "fragile" from all the warm afternoons lately, as well as the stronger sun. South facing lawns are opening up. A half inch of rain and 40F+ would take care of anything below 1,000ft up here I think... or at least non-north facing aspects. I'm sure Pete will say snow cover will be fine, but it doesn't look good.

[Cold Miser]

Those gusts will be in the mountains probably, I think that's what he means.

Yeah, but I can still see Paul getting excited about the readings that come in.

[CoastalWx]

We are very dry, couple warm days in late march early april with a strong west wind and it gets ugly fast.

I think the next two weeks will feature some decent QPF. The battle ground is practically overhead.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, but I can still see Paul getting excited about the readings that come in.

He'll be nude just wearing his Red Sox sweatshirt on the ham radio.

[dryslot]

He'll be nude just wearing his Red Sox sweatshirt on the ham radio.

lol

[Mr Torchey]

I think the next two weeks will feature some decent QPF. The battle ground is practically overhead.

I hope we get some water. However, could be a catch 22, if we get the warmth with it could mean some very early growth which would leave any tender vegitation open to almost certain freezes, will be interesting to see it all play out. Almost anything can and will happen once these wavelengths shorten up.

Soil temps are well above normal here, and most of sne.

[dendrite]

I hope we get some water. However, could be a catch 22, if we get the warmth with it could mean some very early growth which would leave any tender vegitation open to almost certain freezes, will be interesting to see it all play out. Almost anything can and will happen once these wavelengths shorten up.

Soil temps are well above normal here, and most of sne.

My 6" soil is near to below normal due to minimal snowpack.

[Damage In Tolland]

Torch, rain,torch, rain.cold, torch

[Typhoon Tip]

It makes sense that the Euro ejected the southern stream out much faster on this run; but the model also has significant continuity breakdown with the intensity of that feature in order to do so.

The previous discussion later last night on page 2 was a comparative between the GFS and Euro, outlining their differences and what it could mean to the stream interactions further east over the U.S. That's still the issue, actually... The weaker (now) depiction of the Euro actually causes the fast ejection, because if/when the southern stream S/W(s) are stronger, they would cause/induce the northern stream to interact with them as they scoot by to the south - that imposes a meridional component to the flow overall when that happens, leading to slower overall translation speeds. That said, even so, the balance of power between the persistent SE ridge -vs- native progressivity to the flow would have meant threading the needle as a whopper of an understatement.

Can't even thread needles with this Euro solution. The problem here is that the ECM butt banged us over with this continuity shift ... and doing so INSIDE its wheel-house at just 24-36 hours from the time the impulse first comes off the Pacific over land. That's a bit of a frustration for me - the model is unflappable 90% of the time inside of 36 hours and it chooses to f* up now ... ? get bent!

Well...I must admit, I was rooting for the Euro solution. Why? Purely for compassion/empathy's sake. I think it may just be (barring some renegade "bowling" season anomaly....), the last gasp of hope to get anything out of this season. But, it is what it is.. The Euro fumbling around with the intensity of what actually gets relayed off the Pac, then assembling a stream interaction accordingly down wind is all a continuity breakdown, and one that crashes its solution toward the GFS...

I am not sure why - btw - there is this collective need to bash the GFS? It's done this several times this laughable non-existent cold season, where it was stubborn and the Euro decided at some point to go with it inside of 96 hours - Phil and I discussed this well over a month ago. ...But i digress...

The Euro is a big fat ugly azzhole of a douche bag for what it just did.

Okay okay. Got that out of my system - HAHAHA.

I am loving the extended Euro ( nyuk nyuk )... Why? Because it is a wonderfully concerted painting (finally, a model run that looks an iota like the teleconnector spreads) of what the overnight GEFs -derived teleconnectors argue for. And, when it's cross-guidance model types in agreement from the GFS/ECM, that usually forces hand. It's also nice to see correlations return to the party quite frankly. Early spring - I know a few may not want to hear that...

I mentioned this a couple of times in posts last week, that whatever we get, we would need to get by D10 because the overall landscape of what the teleconnectors were pointing toward back then - and has become even more prevalent since - is a complete abandonment of any cold potential (continentally below 50N) heading into March. Not only that, but during a year that has been completely abandoned (seasonal trend) to begin with...? That should pretty much put the final nail in this coffin, inside of which is this corpse of a winter together with a thermo-nuclear resentment bomb, lower it all into the ground, bury it under 6.5' of cement, and detonate said bomb.

I don't know what all that means either, but sufficed it is to say, there is nothing about any of the large scale indicators that suggests it will snow before next autumn at this time. Sorry. You're only hope is, if we can pass through 3-4 weeks of favorable indicators and cough up a 0 fur-ball, perhaps we can cash-in when there are no favorable indicators for the same paradoxic shame. I dunno about you, but that pretty f* thin!

Anyway, the PNA is steadily declining, landing on -2 SD (or more negative) by D10. The NAO has been in a positive coma all season long and now nurse Rachet is scheduling it for a lobotomy, ...so no help there. The AO has gone positive - not that it mattered; the entire negative event spanning the last month dumped 100% of the resulting middle latitude cold flux into Eurasion. We got ZIPPO from that 3 week span of propagating SSW driven negative AO (and it did turn out to propagate by the way...). Verdict: Bad luck I suppose. I was discussing this with Will the other night; when the AO did tank, the EPO and the NAO acted more like blockers to delivering cold, due to their respective phase states. Meanwhile ( ) the MJO passed through 7-8-1 about as powerful as it has been over recent years worth of monitoring and correlated 0.0 on N/A circulation. How in the hell the atmosphere defied physics in getting that to happen is an utterly intriguing science to me... Actually, now that I think about it, hearkens back to my own point I hammered last autumn about how the MJO's effects seem be trumped if the surrounding medium is out of phase with it ... yet another form of this year's incredible deconstructive wave interference propensity... Doesn't seem to matter what scale we observe, big or small, or what mass field one compares, they are all unilaterally inharmonic.

The point of all that rant is really this simple: winter is dead. ..not that it was ever born; but any chance of a late delivery is a ship that set sail, now, too.

How extreme the warmth gets may in ironically become the headlines. Heh, part of me almost is inclined to think that the muting of anything extreme as also being a season torture, might somehow attack that, as well. But, creepiness aside ... if these PNA/NAO/AO/ teleconnectors are fully realized, that polar boundary placement up near the Canadian border with a quasi-Bermuda ridge extension that evolves between D6-10 as is depicted in the 00z operational Euro may actually be underdone if anything. -PNA/+NAO couplet with MJO passing into Phase 3 or 4, with 0 help from the AO is a killer in March.. Even with the wave lengths beginning to shrink, that is just too much broadcasted indicators for warmth to overcome.

Also, this type of pattern has a big tornado/severe weather risk for the TV and lower OV area. But that is an issue for those American sub-form sectors. .. I'm sure they are all over it already.

So now the 12z GFS tries to bring cold waves in ... yeah, I guess that makes sense too

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I need someone to translate what Tip just wrote.

[CoastalWx]

The models do hint at some overrunning day 8 and on. You can thank that -EPO ridge that tries to set up. Now whether it happens is another story, but they'll be building cold in Canada.