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Feb. 2-4 Potential Winter Storm


snowlover2

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With a likely close to neutral AO/NAO in the next week, wouldn't that favor the Great Lakes area more at this time of year for being the gradient area between the cold and warm, thus the battleground for the system? It's funny watching the GFS going from super suppressed to super NW.

I would think it would favor the Great Lakes too. Looks like a negative AO for awhile. I would think we could start using the MJO as an pattern indicator, since it looks like it's on the right track to be moving into Phase 7 by the end of the week and then Phase 8 later on.

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I would think it would favor the Great Lakes too. Looks like a negative AO for awhile. I would think we could start using the MJO as an pattern indicator, since it looks like it's on the right track to be moving into Phase 7 by the end of the week and then Phase 8 later on.

Yeah, just saw a moderately negative AO and a near neutral NAO is the consensus for the near future. I know less about the implications of the AO than the NAO.

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EXTREME VOLATILITY CONTS THIS PD W/CERTAIN PATTN CHG IN STORE AND

EXEMPLIFIED BY DIZZING ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS OF NOAM FLW.

FURTHER...12Z MED RANGE GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE LOOKS DEFICIENT IN

DEPTH OF PLAINS HGT FALLS/TROUGH DEPTH LT WEEK ALTHOUGH 12Z GEFS

MEANS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF YDAS 12Z ECMWF/GEM LOOK OF DEEPER SRN

PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS AND THAT RATIONAL REMAINS THE FVRD OPTION

GOING FORWARD. THUS THIS YIELDS NO DETERMINISTIC DETAIL OF NOTE TO

WARRANT SIG SPECIFIC CHGS TO PRIOR GRIDS THIS PD. HOPEFULLY

PLANNED NEPAC RECON FLIGHTS WILL LEAD TO SOME MITIGATION OVER THE

COURSE OF THIS WEEK AS OMINOUS SIGNALS REMAIN W/POTENTIAL SIG FLW

PERTURBATIONS OVR THE CNTRL/ERN US LATE WEEK AS WRN RIDGE/ERN

TROUGH PATTN DVLPS. TELECONNECTIONS WOULD FAVOR DVLPMNT OF SIG

SYNOPTIC WAVE OVR THE SRN PLAINS AND SUBSEQUENT NEWD EJECTION UP

THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.

Should be an interesting week, fun to watch ....

IWX AFD snippet from long term discussion

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What is 5 ppded?

A maximum of 5 posts per day, usually reserved for weather weenies who only post smiley faces,

ridiculous 850/precip maps at 120+ hrs with commentary such as lol, omg, or so close, and generally offer little insight or knowledge to the ongoing discussion.

It's a hint for weenies to read more and learn from others than to constantly post.

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With a minor pattern change, possibly more than minor (time will tell whether it happens or not as models have taken these pattern changes away the closer we got to their projected start), the models will have a lot of trouble settling on a solution until we are much closer to a possible system. While some of the oscillations are looking more favorable for the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, in theory based on past histories, I'm not sure it will come to fruition this Winter. We don't get things to phase properly this season or we lack enough good cold air source region it seems.... if that's the case again with any potential system this could go hard left and hit the Plains as was showing today or we could see a total lack of phasing and this thing just zips along and stays South. Of course the solution most of us would like to see is the phase and a chunk of cold air drop down for this system to feed off of and pull in to produce a good snow somewhere. I have a gut feeling if there is to be a snow storm with this system it will be West of many of us, just call it an educated hunch. Hopefully the aircraft missions will help with the model volatility but I think there will be significant flips probably up until Wednesday or Thursday. Someone could make out very well with this though considering the warmth around right now allowing the atmosphere to hold more juice than if we had seasonal temps.

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