KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 lols at 12z..gfs... Well damn. I guess the torch is back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 lol, beach wear for Super Bowl Sunday in Indy. [heavy sarcasm] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 lol, beach wear for Super Bowl Sunday in Indy. [heavy sarcasm] Would be the weekend to hit the links, no one would be there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Congrats Sioux Falls, SD? You know it's a special kind of winter when the 850 line is running through Duluth, MN in early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Congrats Sioux Falls, SD? You know it's a special kind of winter when the 850 line is running through Duluth, MN in early February. It is one run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The setup on some of the 12z runs/especially GGEM/is quite favorable for significant icing somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 With a likely close to neutral AO/NAO in the next week, wouldn't that favor the Great Lakes area more at this time of year for being the gradient area between the cold and warm, thus the battleground for the system? It's funny watching the GFS going from super suppressed to super NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 ALl models are on Crack, with that said I'll just discontinue all the models until Thursday!. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It is one run... Ya really, with a lot more changes to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It is one run... I It takes only one run to change everything...maybe this is the start of the west trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 With a likely close to neutral AO/NAO in the next week, wouldn't that favor the Great Lakes area more at this time of year for being the gradient area between the cold and warm, thus the battleground for the system? It's funny watching the GFS going from super suppressed to super NW. I would think it would favor the Great Lakes too. Looks like a negative AO for awhile. I would think we could start using the MJO as an pattern indicator, since it looks like it's on the right track to be moving into Phase 7 by the end of the week and then Phase 8 later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I would think it would favor the Great Lakes too. Looks like a negative AO for awhile. I would think we could start using the MJO as an pattern indicator, since it looks like it's on the right track to be moving into Phase 7 by the end of the week and then Phase 8 later on. Yeah, just saw a moderately negative AO and a near neutral NAO is the consensus for the near future. I know less about the implications of the AO than the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Of course models backing off on weekend #snow event 4 #superbowl. They could flip-flop back. Problem is this winter trend is for less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 EXTREME VOLATILITY CONTS THIS PD W/CERTAIN PATTN CHG IN STORE AND EXEMPLIFIED BY DIZZING ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS OF NOAM FLW. FURTHER...12Z MED RANGE GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE LOOKS DEFICIENT IN DEPTH OF PLAINS HGT FALLS/TROUGH DEPTH LT WEEK ALTHOUGH 12Z GEFS MEANS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF YDAS 12Z ECMWF/GEM LOOK OF DEEPER SRN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS AND THAT RATIONAL REMAINS THE FVRD OPTION GOING FORWARD. THUS THIS YIELDS NO DETERMINISTIC DETAIL OF NOTE TO WARRANT SIG SPECIFIC CHGS TO PRIOR GRIDS THIS PD. HOPEFULLY PLANNED NEPAC RECON FLIGHTS WILL LEAD TO SOME MITIGATION OVER THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK AS OMINOUS SIGNALS REMAIN W/POTENTIAL SIG FLW PERTURBATIONS OVR THE CNTRL/ERN US LATE WEEK AS WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTN DVLPS. TELECONNECTIONS WOULD FAVOR DVLPMNT OF SIG SYNOPTIC WAVE OVR THE SRN PLAINS AND SUBSEQUENT NEWD EJECTION UP THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. Should be an interesting week, fun to watch .... IWX AFD snippet from long term discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The 18Z GFS is a laughable mess. Something just isn't right here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If Nic doesn't qualify to be 5 ppded, who does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If Nic doesn't qualify to be 5 ppded, who does? What is 5 ppded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yeah someone please 5 post him. Getting annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 What is 5 ppded? A maximum of 5 posts per day, usually reserved for weather weenies who only post smiley faces, ridiculous 850/precip maps at 120+ hrs with commentary such as lol, omg, or so close, and generally offer little insight or knowledge to the ongoing discussion. It's a hint for weenies to read more and learn from others than to constantly post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 large spread as expected with the 12z GFS ensembles 108hr 120hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 With a minor pattern change, possibly more than minor (time will tell whether it happens or not as models have taken these pattern changes away the closer we got to their projected start), the models will have a lot of trouble settling on a solution until we are much closer to a possible system. While some of the oscillations are looking more favorable for the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, in theory based on past histories, I'm not sure it will come to fruition this Winter. We don't get things to phase properly this season or we lack enough good cold air source region it seems.... if that's the case again with any potential system this could go hard left and hit the Plains as was showing today or we could see a total lack of phasing and this thing just zips along and stays South. Of course the solution most of us would like to see is the phase and a chunk of cold air drop down for this system to feed off of and pull in to produce a good snow somewhere. I have a gut feeling if there is to be a snow storm with this system it will be West of many of us, just call it an educated hunch. Hopefully the aircraft missions will help with the model volatility but I think there will be significant flips probably up until Wednesday or Thursday. Someone could make out very well with this though considering the warmth around right now allowing the atmosphere to hold more juice than if we had seasonal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Looks like the 0Z NAM slowed the energy up a bit. Little bit of a delay in low formation in SE CO. Then it kicks towards OKC. GFS is a cut-off nightmare! NE gets buried though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Data ingested from recon flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Data ingested from recon flight. Here we go baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Here we go baby! Unfortunately, a favorable track like that one won't even matter if this thing weakens east of the Mississippi as the 0z GFS suggests. I'd still gladly take a result like that, though. Not to mention this thing is going to shift several times given we're still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The above GFS graphic would be a great hit for Nebraska and BI. I don't recall much of anything out in Nebraska this season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The above GFS graphic would be a great hit for Nebraska and BI. I don't recall much of anything out in Nebraska this season so far. LBF has 6.7" on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The above GFS graphic would be a great hit for Nebraska and BI. I don't recall much of anything out in Nebraska this season so far. Baro could get a nice dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 LBF has 6.7" on the season. Oh wow. Didn't realize they were so low. Yeah I'd say they're due lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 0z Euro caving to the GFS through 84hr, but quickly weakens as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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