D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

[SnowGoose69]

Met job are hard to come by right now because of the process and the volume...its absolutely PATHETIC how many bad mets I keep seeing get hired by the NWS because of their rigid rules.

I can't even get on the committee for NWS BOX right now probably because I don't have a high enough GPA (my GPA was 2.8 at Cornell)...despite the fact that I (I'm trying to toot my own horn here) probably know 100x more about SNE weather than any "prospect" would know who is applying to NWS BOX for their opening.

I'm out of NWS anyway right now...I am trying to expand my own business, but I was just using that as an example of how effing bad the process is. Their process will eliminate me on the first cut easily and easily pass a college grad from Texas A&M who knows absolute sh** about SNE weather...that's the massive flaw in the system.

This basically sums it up well.

[MaineJayhawk]

Well, those 0z models were a kick to the nether regions. I like that the Euro is struggling with it and have no confidence that its latest output is the way to go. Much interest in its 12z run ... the most important run of our lives!!!

[MaineJayhawk]

It's encouraging to come down in the morning and see 13 pages of new posts in the model thread. When 4 of the pages are discussing the met job market.....not so encouraging. lol

lol ... yeah, I had high hopes too. My typical morning routine is to avoid all other wx sites until after I read the overnight discussions here. The ebb and flow of emotions is a blast. But this morning I checked out my point forecast first and saw that the forecast for next weekend had been downgraded to snow showers. So I knew that the models barfed on themselves overnight.

[WeatherX]

6Z GEFS moved back to the west with alot of uncertainty on the spaghetti plots to the west.....improvement

[skierinvermont]

I've been looking at the models more closely and I am pretty sure the problem with the Euro (and its ensembles) is that the NM s/w ejects long before the MT/Idaho s/w does and these two feature don't interact at all. The 00z GFS and the 06z NAM and GFS all eject the MT/Idaho s/w right behind NM s/w and that's why they are much closer. They held firm through 06z and so that is a positive sign.

[ski MRG]

Ok, to sum it up, the models are still bouncing around with no consensus. Could happen, could not happen. LOL, at the 20 to near 30yo talking about how old they are and grieving about their lost youth. Priceless, really priceless.

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice to see the Euro make another slight shift west overnight..GFS well east as we thought..though that is it's usual bias..to show a hit then showa few runs that are way east and then bring it back west again in the days leadin up to the storm.

I feel better about snow for this weekend this morning than I did yesterday. Also some norlun hints this weekend

[Damage In Tolland]

Yea, I figured you referring to Meg.....

I had a GF back then....I've gone backwards lol.

J\K.....I'm 3x times the person I was then, single or not.

I want get my sh** in order with respect to a career before I event entertain the notion of a LTR...if I fall into it, so be it, but not going out of my way to seek it out because I don't have much going on right now.

Now you have a boyfriend??

[MaineJayhawk]

I keep dwelling on how much time I've wasted....valuable time. I enjoy talking to you all but I like my family members even more....

I hate weather.

Jerry played Russian Roulette with 6 bullets last night. lol

[skierinvermont]

Now you have a boyfriend??

he was really hoping to tickle Josh's fanny with a vortmax too

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't care about my backyard, I just want that 1080 to verify in Greenland and recreate that scene on Mars in Total Recall

[moneypitmike]

Nice to see the Euro make another slight shift west overnight..GFS well east as we thought..though that is it's usual bias..to show a hit then showa few runs that are way east and then bring it back west again in the days leadin up to the storm.

I feel better about snow for this weekend this morning than I did yesterday. Also some norlun hints this weekend

As do I. I think what we saw last night--particularly with the EC's reversal on the northern/southern streams-- has us kind of going back to square one. The end result from a sensible weather standpoint may be the same (at least in God's country, perhaps not in central/eastern areas), but I think it opens the door for some interesting things. We'll see in about 5-7 hours what goods/bads may be reaped.

[Damage In Tolland]

Another good sign as we get closer is Will and Jerry's Nogaps still so far west

[ski MRG]

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE

TRACK OF THE STORM. IF THE UPPER TROF AXIS DIGS A BIT FARTHER WEST

THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THIS WOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO BEND BACK

TO THE WEST. STILL FOURS DAYS AWAY...WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IN THE

SOUTHERN STREAM STILL SOMEWHERE OVER THE PACIFIC...SO PLENTY OF TIME

TO SORT OUT.

ALB's AFD sums it up succinctly.

[moneypitmike]

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE

TRACK OF THE STORM. IF THE UPPER TROF AXIS DIGS A BIT FARTHER WEST

THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THIS WOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO BEND BACK

TO THE WEST. STILL FOURS DAYS AWAY...WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IN THE

SOUTHERN STREAM STILL SOMEWHERE OVER THE PACIFIC...SO PLENTY OF TIME

TO SORT OUT.

ALB's AFD sums it up succinctly.

I thought mine did.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nice to see the Euro make another slight shift west overnight..GFS well east as we thought..though that is it's usual bias..to show a hit then showa few runs that are way east and then bring it back west again in the days leadin up to the storm.

I feel better about snow for this weekend this morning than I did yesterday. Also some norlun hints this weekend

The Euro shifted East Kev. Don't have the 12h increment but you can clearly see the track shifted offshore. We're hanging by the GFS right now.

00z

12z

[Baroclinic Zone]

Another good sign as we get closer is Will and Jerry's Nogaps still so far west

And the 06z Gaps shifted east as well.

You can see all the previous runs here.

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml

[MaineJayhawk]

Euro shifted east, but it came up with a new way of getting there. I'm not nailing down that particular solution yet. 12z will be interesting.

[moneypitmike]

And the 06z Gaps shifted east as well.

You can see all the previous runs here.

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml

Bob--agree on your comments. But, how it gets there is a radical departure from yesterday. Something's amiss when that happens and we'll need another 12-24 hrs to feel secure in what's playing out.

[Damage In Tolland]

The Euro shifted East Kev. Don't have the 12h increment but you can clearly see the track shifted offshore. We're hanging by the GFS right now.

00z

12z

No read Will's posts it came west but did so in a weird manner that was convoluted

[ackwaves]

BOX AFD...

MODEL PREFERENCES...

THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET HAVE BACKED OFF THEIR MOST WESTWARD LOW TRACK

OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. THIS RESULTS IN FAIRLY GOOD MODEL

AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z ECMWF/GEFS/GGEM/UKMET AND GFS ON A STORM

TRACK EAST OF THE 40N/70W. THIS WOULD CONFINE THE THREAT AREA FOR

ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND

SEE IF THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK REAPPEARS IN LATER MODEL RUNS AS

THIS SOLUTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MEAN

LONGWAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY. IN ADDITION THE

FEATURES INVOLVED /POLAR SHORT WAVES/ HERE ARE FROM HIGHER LATITUDES

WHERE DATA INGEST FOR MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE LIMITED. THEREFORE MAY

SEE A DIFFERENT MODEL TREND IN A FEW DAYS ONCE THESE FEATURES

TRAVERSE INTO THE MID LATITUDES.

Verbatum we see about 5-7" it looks like.

[Damage In Tolland]

BOX AFD...

MODEL PREFERENCES...

THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET HAVE BACKED OFF THEIR MOST WESTWARD LOW TRACK

OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. THIS RESULTS IN FAIRLY GOOD MODEL

AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z ECMWF/GEFS/GGEM/UKMET AND GFS ON A STORM

TRACK EAST OF THE 40N/70W. THIS WOULD CONFINE THE THREAT AREA FOR

ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND

SEE IF THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK REAPPEARS IN LATER MODEL RUNS AS

THIS SOLUTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MEAN

LONGWAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY. IN ADDITION THE

FEATURES INVOLVED /POLAR SHORT WAVES/ HERE ARE FROM HIGHER LATITUDES

WHERE DATA INGEST FOR MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE LIMITED. THEREFORE MAY

SEE A DIFFERENT MODEL TREND IN A FEW DAYS ONCE THESE FEATURES

TRAVERSE INTO THE MID LATITUDES.

Verbatum we see about 5-7" it looks like.

Yeah that basically says it's coming west

[moneypitmike]

Yeah that basically says it's coming west

lol. Mr. Optimism.

[weathafella]

The Euro shifted East Kev. Don't have the 12h increment but you can clearly see the track shifted offshore. We're hanging by the GFS right now.

00z

12z

It actually hooked it enough to clip EMA with light snow in a different evolution from 12Z (in that then it only had precip on the cape I believe but the point is well taken. 6z GFS came back west a tick.

Edit: I just compared positions with 12Z at the same time frame...114 vs 126. The evolution and mslp isobaric placement is completely different although not a huge change in sensible wx other than light snow extends into a good portion of MA at some point in the system.

[ackwaves]

Yeah that basically says it's coming west

...so we get rain. lol.

[CapturedNature]

There is a teacher who teaches at the high school I went to, he actually graduated from LSC with a met degree...he also got his masters online from Mississippi state in 2007. This guy is a great forecaster, not sure why he stopped working in the field but he's a high school science teacher. He said he loves teaching so that's what he wanted to do. I've tried to get him to sign up here but with being a school teacher and having two kids he doesn't have much free time.

What was his name? I went to LSC too back in the 80s with a met degree but I never worked in the field (unless you include consulting). I knew a couple of guys that became teachers. One was from NYC and the other was from Mass. I saw your comment and thought...hey, there are other guys out there like me!

Dave

[dryslot]

Nice to see the Euro make another slight shift west overnight..GFS well east as we thought..though that is it's usual bias..to show a hit then showa few runs that are way east and then bring it back west again in the days leadin up to the storm.

I feel better about snow for this weekend this morning than I did yesterday. Also some norlun hints this weekend

I had mentioned before last nights 0z run of the gfs that it was its tome to lose the storm only to have it come back on future runs, As we thought.........

[Tropopause_Fold]

...so we get rain. lol.

i wouldn't worry if i were you.

[Baroclinic Zone]

It actually hooked it enough to clip EMA with light snow in a different evolution from 12Z (in that then it only had precip on the cape I believe but the point is well taken. 6z GFS came back west a tick.

Edit: I just compared positions with 12Z at the same time frame...114 vs 126. The evolution and mslp isobaric placement is completely different although not a huge change in sensible wx other than light snow extends into a good portion of MA at some point in the system.

I'm not worried at this point. I am in a good spot being so fat east. I do agree that the Euro changed things up a bit but the end game was still the same. Seeing the 06z GFS tick west from 00z is promising and I do think there is still a correction to the west with this.

I fell the best spot to be with this system weill be CC and SE MA up into ME as the low swings around and tilts west. I think advisory snows for CC extending back to the I-95 belt are becoming more likely at this time. I thik Phil/ Cweat stand to see the most out of this system right now.

[Ginx snewx]

The Euro shifted East Kev. Don't have the 12h increment but you can clearly see the track shifted offshore. We're hanging by the GFS right now.

00z

12z

Not that it matters Bob but these are apples and oranges charts, just look at the 5H changes, Euro made a huge change but ended up with the same result but really can not compare the two runs for LP placement.