D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

[SnowGoose69]

I had mentioned before last nights 0z run of the gfs that it was its tome to lose the storm only to have it come back on future runs, As we thought.........

I mentioned the same thing,....it seems there is always a first consensus peak on the models near the 4-5 day mark which lasts maybe 2-3 model cycles and often times this is a false consensus which reverses the other direction very soon after....its not always the case, sometimes they can hold their ground the entire 4-5 day period and not move more than another 50 miles but its unusual....that initial head fake consensus always seems to occur at some point in the medium range.

[dryslot]

I'm not worried at this point. I am in a good spot being so fat east. I do agree that the Euro changed things up a bit but the end game was still the same. Seeing the 06z GFS tick west from 00z is promising and I do think there is still a correction to the west with this.

I fell the best spot to be with this system weill be CC and SE MA up into ME as the low swings around and tilts west. I think advisory snows for CC extending back to the I-95 belt are becoming more likely at this time. I thik Phil/ Cweat stand to see the most out of this system right now.

I think your assesment is pretty much spot on to what is/may be expected with this system, Eastern areas will be the ones that jackpot.......

[snowNH]

Do we take into consideration that the gfs moved sig west last storm around this time?

[Tropopause_Fold]

I mentioned the same thing,....it seems there is always a first consensus peak on the models near the 4-5 day mark which lasts maybe 2-3 model cycles and often times this is a false consensus which reverses the other direction very soon after....its not always the case, sometimes they can hold their ground the entire 4-5 day period and not move more than another 50 miles but its unusual....that initial head fake consensus always seems to occur at some point in the medium range.

it would be nice if the ec ens would stop going east.

[dryslot]

I mentioned the same thing,....it seems there is always a first consensus peak on the models near the 4-5 day mark which lasts maybe 2-3 model cycles and often times this is a false consensus which reverses the other direction very soon after....its not always the case, sometimes they can hold their ground the entire 4-5 day period and not move more than another 50 miles but its unusual....that initial head fake consensus always seems to occur at some point in the medium range.

Yeah, It really seems like it happens a lot especially with the GFS and it always seems to be about this time, Its out past the Nam's realm or it would probably do the same who knows, I think there will be some more westward adjustment in the next day or two, The Euro struggling with this storm is a good indicator that all the options are still open with no real model consensus..

[dryslot]

Do we take into consideration that the gfs moved sig west last storm around this time?

It has to have some merit, And i would not be surprised if 12z it shifts back west given the uncertainty with the strength of the southern stream energy.......

[dryslot]

it would be nice if the ec ens would stop going east.

That is not a good sign at all, Really needs to hold its ground or tick back west..

[TalcottWx]

OT if you guys want to see how much of a screwzone ive been in this year find my location and check out the heavy band of snow parked like 3 mi to my north.

[SnowGoose69]

Yeah, It really seems like it happens a lot especially with the GFS and it always seems to be about this time, Its out past the Nam's realm or it would probably do the same who knows, I think there will be some more westward adjustment in the next day or two, The Euro struggling with this storm is a good indicator that all the options are still open with no real model consensus..

I do not like the Euro the first 3 weeks or so of December which I have posted all over here the last week...its had many incidents of blowing storms until inside the short term during the early portion of the winter...it seems to be strong overall the very end of December through the rest of the winter but the December 03 event as well as the event last year were badly missed outside of 2-3 days...it also butchered the second December 03 event which is even more appalling since that was a SW flow event...something the Euro is usually far superior with compared to the NAM/GFS.

[Baroclinic Zone]

it would be nice if the ec ens would stop going east.

Kevin said the Euro came east.

[dryslot]

OT if you guys want to see how much of a screwzone ive been in this year find my location and check out the heavy band of snow parked like 3 mi to my north.

I'm with you, I am watching that 25dbz strip thats east west orintated pass over my head by about 20 miles north of here or so.........

[Mr Torchey]

I have let this threat go, but to those still following and chasing it, best of luck!

Looking ahead, I really dont see any other threat in the next two weeks:(

[MaineJayhawk]

I have let this threat go, but to those still following and chasing it, best of luck!

Looking ahead, I really dont see any other threat in the next two weeks:(

One or two will pop up, much like the one you're giving up on did.

[Mr Torchey]

One or two will pop up, much like the one you're giving up on did.

Lets hope so, at least xmas looks cold, maybe I can hang on to the 3 tenths of snow I got the other day until xmas?

[dryslot]

I do not like the Euro the first 3 weeks or so of December which I have posted all over here the last week...its had many incidents of blowing storms until inside the short term during the early portion of the winter...it seems to be strong overall the very end of December through the rest of the winter but the December 03 event as well as the event last year were badly missed outside of 2-3 days...it also butchered the second December 03 event which is even more appalling since that was a SW flow event...something the Euro is usually far superior with compared to the NAM/GFS.

Thats a good point, Also it seems more so this year then past ones that all the models seem to be struggling with all these storms even inside of 3-4 days as this pattern has been very hard to figure out with the massive block over greenland and the placement of these ULL's being east or west thats been a feature north of here pretty much the entire season so far..

[dryslot]

I have let this threat go, but to those still following and chasing it, best of luck!

Looking ahead, I really dont see any other threat in the next two weeks:(

Who are you kidding, Your not going anywhere, You will be here at 12z watching.......

[Mr Torchey]

I am still holding out some hope for those of us along the immediate south coast getting a flurry or two later tomorrow

[snowNH]

I have let this threat go, but to those still following and chasing it, best of luck!

Looking ahead, I really dont see any other threat in the next two weeks:(

Haha weenie quote of the year

[Typhoon Tip]

Without being caught up on this thread ... we should not be so certain of this waning of intensity for the late weekend, though admittedly it becomes harder to visualize it coming back in a season bereaved of action. Objectively, we have seen in the past however where a significant system is lost in this way, only to resoundingly return. I'd like to wait 24 hours worth of cycles on this.

[snowNH]

Without being caught up on this thread ... we should not be so certain of this waning of intensity for the late weekend, though admittedly it becomes harder to visualize it coming back in a season bereaved of action. Objectively, we have seen in the past however where a significant system is lost in this way, only to resoundingly return. I'd like to wait 24 hours worth of cycles on this.

So 12z tomorrow either radio show or next storm thread?

[Zeus]

Without being caught up on this thread ... we should not be so certain of this waning of intensity for the late weekend, though admittedly it becomes harder to visualize it coming back in a season bereaved of action. Objectively, we have seen in the past however where a significant system is lost in this way, only to resoundingly return. I'd like to wait 24 hours worth of cycles on this.

Correction vector time?!

[ackwaves]

I thik Phil/ Cweat stand to see the most out of this system right now.

Sooo.... mixing issues here? Seems we stay cold enough even out here in the middle of the Atlantic. No?

[Bostonseminole]

well the 12Z NAM has initialized.. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!

[phishn]

What was his name? I went to LSC too back in the 80s with a met degree but I never worked in the field (unless you include consulting). I knew a couple of guys that became teachers. One was from NYC and the other was from Mass. I saw your comment and thought...hey, there are other guys out there like me!

Dave

Nice to meet you, I too have my degree from LSC, 1995, but never worked in the field, including television broadcasting. I could tell by your name you went to LSC. Two of my other friends I graduated with are in the same boat, all three of us work in the IT industry for careers.

[TalcottWx]

If this storm doesn't show a biggie, its Tobin Time!

[snowNH]

Wouldn't it be nice if this suite shows a huge hit.. cmon SNE is due for a good trend! Everybody start thinking good juju

[Damage In Tolland]

i wouldn't worry if i were you.

Not sure why anyone is worried

[Typhoon Tip]

Correction vector time?!

You do understand that is a virtual vector and not one that exist in the sense of a scalar measurement - ?

All that means is that with a -AO/-NAO exerting equatorialward on the field, storms will tend to correct toward the south - hense, is where it points.

I suspect you are after sarcasm first, however, so take take it for what it is worth. The term correction vector is not even mine; it came originally from AFDs and NCEP.

That said, what we are seeing here is not a correction south, but a loss of intensity - too entirely different aspects.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Sooo.... mixing issues here? Seems we stay cold enough even out here in the middle of the Atlantic. No?

I'd hedge against that but 12z runs today should give some inkling.

[wxsean]

Nice to meet you, I too have my degree from LSC, 1995, but never worked in the field, including television broadcasting. I could tell by your name you went to LSC. Two of my other friends I graduated with are in the same boat, all three of us work in the IT industry for careers.

Nice to see I am not alone.

I graduated from WCSU in '97 and worked in the research field for 4 years before jumping ship and becoming a software engineer. I've been writing software since 2001, but meteorology is still near & dear to my heart, and I do a little consulting on the side.

(sorry for the OT post)