Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z NAM isn't delivering the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 For what it is worth ... the 12z NAM is now trended stronger with the southern stream at 48 hours compared to the same period off the 00z and 06z runs. We'll see what this relays into down stream... By the way, for moderation/Will etc, did I log in I am being redirected to a 404 error, can not load page type screen, but the indication at the top is tha that the log in was successful nonetheless. Just fyi - The southern stream could go nuclear, and it still wouldn't do a thing as long as the PV is sitting over us. There is strong UL over the entire eastern US. Not exactly favorable for cyclogenesis One of my personal favorites: we can inject HGH into the southern stream...it's not going to make a world of difference if we have that giant gyre spinning near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Me thinks this is out to sea off of south carolina.. the dagger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z NAM isn't delivering the goods. Nams in clown range anyways...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wonder how many storms that do not trend northwest it's going to take for you to realize that this is not a normal La Nina year, and this is not one of the SWFE we saw in 07-08 and 08-09 Normally you're pretty good..but you're really struggling to understand what is going in this particular setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The southern stream could go nuclear, and it still wouldn't do a thing as long as the PV is sitting over us. There is strong UL over the entire eastern US. Not exactly favorable for cyclogenesis One of my personal favorites: We'll see, but this run is not as bad as some have opined. It is about 4-6 hours slower in longitude It has slightly stronger embedded wind maxima There is subtle but important interaction with the western end of the SPV over the last two cycles That feature N of us would be stretched and less consequential should the western end of the PV subsume more readily; that would be outside the 84 hour period of this run These are all positives that can be taken away from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I will say that that the sw looks pretty strong on this run though....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 For what it is worth ... the 12z NAM is now trended stronger with the southern stream at 48 hours compared to the same period off the 00z and 06z runs. We'll see what this relays into down stream... By the way, for moderation/Will etc, did I log in I am being redirected to a 404 error, can not load page type screen, but the indication at the top is tha that the log in was successful nonetheless. Just fyi - John, it looks as though it's developing it later, so hence my comment about non-delivery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Me thinks this is out to sea off of south carolina.. the dagger Based on? You guys go take a look at Feb 96 when the confluence over our heads just 48 hours prior was insane , just saying trying to extrapolate the NAM is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I hate doing this, but I don't think the NAM would be all that bad, beyond 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I hate doing this, but I don't think the NAM would be all that bad, beyond 84 hrs. I'll defer to yours and John's judgment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I hate doing this, but I don't think the NAM would be all that bad, beyond 84 hrs. I'm not mad at this run, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'll defer to yours and John's judgment. Very conducive flow to get something up the coast ..vortex moving away NE..what is bad about that panel you posted? That map screams of snow breaking out 12-24 hrs later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 We'll see, but this run is not as bad as some have opined. It is about 4-6 hours slower in longitude It has slightly stronger embedded wind maxima There is subtle but important interaction with the western end of the SPV over the last two cycles That feature N of us would be stretched and less consequential should the western end of the PV subsume more readily; that would be outside the 84 hour period of this run These are all positives that can be taken away from this. Yeah agreed. The 12z NAM has some notable improvements. The slower trough allows the PV to get out of the way a bit more, allowing more amplified ridging over the east coast. However, most of the positives I see are showing up beyond hr60, which isn't exactly in the NAM's wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I hate doing this, but I don't think the NAM would be all that bad, beyond 84 hrs. Agreed. And if you put any stock in model trends this run trended slower with the surface reflection and better with phasing at 500. At 84hr the 500 low instead of sitting just north of Maine is now somewhat split with some nrg heading east and someheading back west. The upper low sitting to the north of lake Superior looks like it wants to deepen and help raise heights on the coast. Of course its probably just the NAM stringing us along, raising false hopes etc.. I'll need to see the euro make some changes before getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Another thing I thought about (this probably is more of a minor force) is that, the lack of a big cold high may help focus the baroclinic zone closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Agreed. And if you put any stock in model trends this run trended slower with the surface reflection and better with phasing at 500. At 84hr the 500 low instead of sitting just north of Maine is now somewhat split with some nrg heading east and someheading back west. The upper low sitting to the north of lake Superior looks like it wants to deepen and help raise heights on the coast. Of course its probably just the NAM stringing us along, raising false hopes etc.. I'll need to see the euro make some changes before getting excited. Are you a met by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I hate doing this, but I don't think the NAM would be all that bad, beyond 84 hrs. It is slower and has the precip field further south, 06z looks like it was developing a low off the carolinas at 84hr and the 12z has not........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think what we want to see is a slower evolution. if this thing can hold off until Sunday night/Monday we might be in good shape. That seems to be the concensus last night and so far on the NAM is to slow the evolution down. Yesterday it was being modelled as Saturday night into Sunday which would force things farther south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Very conducive flow to get something up the coast ..vortex moving away NE..what is bad about that panel you posted? That map screams of snow breaking out 12-24 hrs later I'm going to sit back and defer to those with more experience. I'll agree, I may have spoken too soon but it is also the NAM at 84h. It has also sniffed out threats in it's clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It is slower and has the precip field further south, 06z looks like it was developing a low off the carolinas at 84hr and the 12z has not........... I think the 500 pattern is better on this run, as compared to 06z. Take a look at the h 78 panel and compare it to hr 84 on the 06z run. It has less confluence to the north, and a stronger s/w across AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 re: the confluence, the PV.... this pattern doenst look anything like the obtrusive patterns of last year i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I started a new topic since the last one was over 1400 replies. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/3583-1219-1220-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 "You are seeing today an all out attempt to marshal the forces of the extrapolated NAM, using not merely the trolls, or their fellow travelers-the deluded weenies, the eggheads, and some of my good friends in both the amateur and meteorologist Parties who can become heros over night in the eyes of the weenies if they will just join with the jackal pack" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 "You are seeing today an all out attempt to marshal the forces of the extrapolated NAM, using not merely the trolls, or their fellow travelers-the deluded weenies, the eggheads, and some of my good friends in both the amateur and meteorologist Parties who can become heros over night in the eyes of the weenies if they will just join with the jackal pack" Have you started doing drugs now that you're in college? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think the 500 pattern is better on this run, as compared to 06z. Take a look at the h 78 panel and compare it to hr 84 on the 06z run. It has less confluence to the north, and a stronger s/w across AR. Your correct, The confluence is further NW and sw is stronger down south, I would think that would give it some room to amplify more north and west........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I was pretty encouraged by the 12Z NAM. two streams seem to be moving into phase somewhat and the axis still back near IL at 84 hours. Lets just say it is a marked improvement over 0Z whether or not it quite gets there yet... Very conducive flow to get something up the coast ..vortex moving away NE..what is bad about that panel you posted? That map screams of snow breaking out 12-24 hrs later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Have you started doing drugs now that you're in college? no. Maybe after a few more months without snow though. The reference was to last night by the way. I had mentioned how extrapolating the NAM had become such a frowned upon unmentionable practice. The 12z NAM looks like it would turn out very good for New England ... if I were to extrapolate, which I would of course never do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 no. Maybe after a few more months without snow though. The reference was to last night by the way. I had mentioned how extrapolating the NAM had become such a frowned upon unmentionable practice. The 12z NAM looks like it would turn out very good for New England ... if I were to extrapolate, which I would of course never do... LOL. We will still do it anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't think I'd ever base a forecast on the NAM overall, but it has it's uses. Sometimes it will fire a first shot such as out around 72 hours plus ...then watch it lose it on the next run and stink for the next 36 hours. It's main use is mesocale stuff such as where lake effect bands will set up, low level cold air etc. no. Maybe after a few more months without snow though. The reference was to last night by the way. I had mentioned how extrapolating the NAM had become such a frowned upon unmentionable practice. The 12z NAM looks like it would turn out very good for New England ... if I were to extrapolate, which I would of course never do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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