mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I'd hedge more ice there than snow...the mid-levels have been trending warmer. The GFS is an outlier in how it evolved the storm. Its the only model that doesn't phase the southern stream. There should still be some snow at the beginning for NNE, but it doesn't look like a significant snow. Yes that is why I'm confused at their forecast. They say the Nam profiles are colder and they are going with them as the influence of the high will hold on. Also the 2 zones that have "heavy accumulation" in the wording are CON down to Rochester and Dover...pretty far SE. Truth is, I won't get excited until people on here get excited...lol. No disrespect to GYX but I'm betting that Arnold didn't make that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 Looks like a nasty storm up N. Ice, Ice baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yes that is why I'm confused at their forecast. They say the Nam profiles are colder and they are going with them as the influence of the high will hold on. Also the 2 zones that have "heavy accumulation" in the wording are CON down to Rochester and Dover...pretty far SE. Truth is, I won't get excited until people on here get excited...lol. No disrespect to GYX but I'm betting that Arnold didn't make that forecast. I could see areas like IZG getting good snows before ice, but south of there looks pretty darn icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Told everybody at ski school yesterday 3-6". Looking good I think, maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Your in a good spot for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 12z NAM is mainly snow here with about .5" qpf...temps rise at 850 and surface after 18z when the precip shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Nam has shifted SE some on this run up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 All of SNE under 2" it would seem. And snow is limited to places no one cares about like Pete's. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Nam has shifted SE some on this run up here baby steps? we only need a couple of baby steps to get low end warning. was the euro just god-awful? what do you think of GYX's optimism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 <p> All of SNE under 2" it would seem. And snow is limited to places no one cares about like Pete's. Under 2" of rain would be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 baby steps? we only need a couple of baby steps to get low end warning. was the euro just god-awful? what do you think of GYX's optimism? EURO and its ensembles changed even Northern VT over to rain by midday Friday. Its encouraging to see the NAM shift back SE somewhat. Its a tough call. I'd wait for the 12z Euro, and if its still warm, ride it. Its very good inside 60 hours usually, especially compared to the NAM/GFS. But, with that said, even BTV was going with mainly snow/sleet up here, but Friday's p/c high here is 37F so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 All of SNE under 2" it would seem. And snow is limited to places no one cares about like Pete's. Shouldn't you be back at school? How long do they let you kids run wild? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 NAM looks warm for most places outside of far NNE. West slope of the Berks probably starts briefly as snow and sleet before quickly going over to rain. The east slope could see a few hours of freezing rain before warming above freezing in time for the conclusion of the event. CNE and southern NNE probably sees some snow (1-3" or 2-4"?) before changing to sleet and freezing rain. Looks very icy for Friday morning for many east of the Greens in VT and NH. The only places that could see a decent snow event are primarily above 44° N in VT, NH, and ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 12z NAM is mainly snow here with about .5" qpf...temps rise at 850 and surface after 18z when the precip shuts off. Yeah its right on the edge but at least its not flying further NW yet. Canadian was warm but actually had quite a bit of snow before a change over to ZR or RN... then like 1-3" on the backside. GGEM has been doing odd things with this storm. UKMET last night was an absolute torch... yikes. I'm feeling pretty confident in some sort of low-end Advisory event with a couple/few inches of snow then maybe a couple tenths of ZR on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 12z GFS = torch up to CNE/NNE. This winter is remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 SREF's snow prob's give love to the Mahoosucs and points N. Sunday River up to Sugarloaf and Big Squaw look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 12z looks very dynamic and interesting up this way. Seems to be a morning even Friday with potential moderate to heavy snow,sleet,and freezing rain...as mitch said earlier, looks like above 44N looks good for a wintry system at this point, and it won't even be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOOTH Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 45.07°N 70.3°W looks good I gathered from my reading. I'm trying to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 12z looks very dynamic and interesting up this way. Seems to be a morning even Friday with potential moderate to heavy snow,sleet,and freezing rain...as mitch said earlier, looks like above 44N looks good for a wintry system at this point, and it won't even be all snow Based on my brief look at the 12z GFS on EWall... I dont even think we get much snow out of that up here. That's IP/ZR or RN as I have no idea how warm the surface is... but that's pretty ugly at H85 even this north until you get over towards SkierInMaine's location. Its very close and you can see the model is jumping around a bit with that warm layer aloft, so maybe its something like that past event where we were seeing ZR/IP during weaker radar returns and then when the better lift moved in we dynamically cooled the warm layer aloft enough that all of us from here to St. Johnsbury went back over to massive wet aggregates. It's right on that line on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 45.07°N 70.3°W looks good I gathered from my reading. I'm trying to learn. I'd feel pretty good if I were you up at Sugarloaf. This is a western ME mtn special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 45.07°N 70.3°W looks good I gathered from my reading. I'm trying to learn. We'll still have to see how strong the secondary gets to hold off the mid-levels from torching. I think ME will be the best spot to be with this one, and even here it looks pretty ugly for most of the population. Here's the link to the latest snow prob's. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROBNE_9z/probsnwloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Based on my brief look at the 12z GFS on EWall... I dont even think we get much snow out of that up here. That's IP/ZR or RN as I have no idea how warm the surface is... but that's pretty ugly at H85 even this north until you get over towards SkierInMaine's location. Its very close and you can see the model is jumping around a bit with that warm layer aloft, so maybe its something like that past event where we were seeing ZR/IP during weaker radar returns and then when the better lift moved in we dynamically cooled the warm layer aloft enough that all of us from here to St. Johnsbury went back over to massive wet aggregates. It's right on that line on the GFS. Yeah, I did a pretty hefty analysis of the 12z GFS just now, and there is a thick warm layer from 800mb to 900mb at hours 42-45 indicating probably a significant zr event for elevations below 3000ft after maybe 1" of snow. After hr 45 the warm layer lessens to a tongue from 870-900mb which probably flips us to ip/sn for a time. Very dynamic system that will wobble within the next 36 hrs and may surprise even during the event. By surprise, I mean I wouldn't be shocked if western maine had sleet/zr for a time with all this warmth aloft. Happened last year with a SWFE in february where we were progged to get 6-10" and we had thunder zr instead with the dynamics aloft and only racked up 6". Gfs verbatim for all of northern VT outside the champlain valley is 1-2" snow followed by 0.2"-0.4" zr. Dangerous for travellers and awful for ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I guess it is likely GYX will remove the "possible heavy accumulation" from my zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I guess it is likely GYX will remove the "possible heavy accumulation" from my zone... Yes. Where are you in nh? Unless you're north of plymouth it'll be mainly wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yes. Where are you in nh? Unless you're north of plymouth it'll be mainly wet 15 miles nw of CON 25 miles s of Plymouth. 7 or 8 miles wsw of Dendrite near Salisbury NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 15 miles nw of CON 25 miles s of Plymouth. 7 or 8 miles wsw of Dendrite near Salisbury NH Yeah thats a tough spot for this one. Meanwhile, the 12z Euro is rolling out to 12hrs. Will update if its not abysmal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 hr 42 has 1-2" of snow for the North country of VT with the whole column below freezing. hr 48 is ZR event up the ying yang on the Euro. The NE quadrant of VT from PF over into NH is below 32F while the 0c 850 line has pressed into Berlin,NH and .25-.50" precipitation falls in this time frame. hr 54 is straight rain for all of VT and NH with zr up to Jackman,ME. Horrific run. By hr 60 there is 1-2" of wrap around snow in VT and NH. 1.00"-1.25" for NNE on this run! Secondary LP goes from Pittsfield,MA to Portsmouth,NH to Eastport,ME on this run. Game, set, and match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 hr 42 has 1-2" of snow for the North country of VT with the whole column below freezing. hr 48 is ZR event up the ying yang on the Euro. The NE quadrant of VT from PF over into NH is below 32F while the 0c 850 line has pressed into Berlin,NH and .25-.50" precipitation falls in this time frame. hr 54 is straight rain for all of VT and NH with zr up to Jackman,ME. Horrific run. By hr 60 there is 1-2" of wrap around snow in VT and NH. Secondary LP goes from Pittsfield,MA to Portsmouth,NH to Eastport,ME on this run. Game, set, and match. Wow, I thought that I would be okay for a snow to ice event here in the Plymouth NH area but the Euro has the surface temp to 32F up to Jackman ME. Awful. Can't even get enough snow cover this year for snowmobiling. I thought this would be a net gain but it seems to be a definate loss for me and even the White Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Euro is brief snow to ice to rain here with ice even up to vim toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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