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Jan 20th snow event part 2


Thundersnow12

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ILN not impressed....for Franklin county they are saying 1" of snow tonight, an inch or less tomorrow and a tenth of an inch of ice. Your graph above would be a full fledge icestorm

There are definitely indications we could still get a warm layer aloft, and for once, I'm not sure that the NAM is overdoing QPF. WIth as cold as surface temperatures (roads, trees, etc) are, if we do get ice, we're in trouble, and obviously there won't be much lead time.

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Nice. Make due with what we got. Good flake size...maybe a half inch before it moves out. Bonus to my earlier thinking/fears.

12z Euro tacked on a few tenths. Gun to my head if I was forced into a 1 inch range I would go 2-3". We're gonna have to watch where that banding sets up later though.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

1157 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

.UPDATE...

WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BECOMING APPARENT...HAVE EXTENDED

WINTER STORM WARNING FURTHER SOUTH...TO REACH FROM CID ACROSS THE

NORTHERN QUAD CITIES METRO...EAST INTO WHITESIDE COUNTY IL.

STRONG ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS HAS SET UP

IN A W-NW TO E-SE AXIS FROM NW IA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL IA INTO W

CENTRAL IL. RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODELS CONFIRM A WAVE RIPPLING

ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN

IA...AND ANOTHER FURTHER UPSTREAM OVER NW OR N CENTRAL IA. HEAVY

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM DBQ W TO

INDEPENDENCE WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW SOUTH TO

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE WHAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY DELINEATION OF

SNOW TO LITTLE OR NO SNOW. THIS IS  ROUGHLY FROM VINTON SE ACROSS

NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY...SOUTHERN CEDAR COUNTY...AND NORTHERN

SCOTT IN IA...AND PORT BYRON TO PRINCETON IN IL.

CONSIDERING THE RATE AT WHICH SNOW IS FALLING AND THE UPPER LEVEL

FORCING CONTINUING WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD 6 TO 8

INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY OVER THE WARNING AREA

FROM THIS MORNING...AND ROUGHLY A ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER

SOUTH WHERE THE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED...BASED ON THE ABOVE

MENTIONED TRENDS. BASED ON CURRENT SNOWFALL RATES AND

TRENDS...TOTALS WELL OVER 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE

HIGHWAY 20 AND HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDORS.

Nice. These good FGEN events seem to overperform in spots.

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12z Euro tacked on a few tenths. Gun to my head if I was forced into a 1 inch range I would go 2-3". We're gonna have to watch where that banding sets up later though.

That's good. Granted we'll have a break this afternoon, but I do like seeing those developing returns in southern/southeasttern IA.

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ILN not impressed....for Franklin county they are saying 1" of snow tonight, an inch or less tomorrow and a tenth of an inch of ice. Your graph above would be a full fledge icestorm

While the NAM is probably overdoing it, the 850mb WAA charts on the Mesoanalysis page is showing quite a bit of WAA heading this way. I think ILN's Ice Storm Warning standard is 0.25 inches of ice. We may end up getting close to it. Thank goodness it's going to happen overnight going into a Saturday and not a weekday.

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Majority of the local mets around calling for a general 1-3 inches. I think the dry air is going to really play a monster roll in this system.

For sure for northeast siders in macomb and st.clair cty where they will struggle to get to 2". West siders should overcome the dry air a lot easier hense totals should be between 2-4"

Your boy at wjbk is going with a 2-5" call

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Majority of the local mets around calling for a general 1-3 inches. I think the dry air is going to really play a monster roll in this system.

Well if we could just ___ oh forget it :whistle:

I hope I somehow the EURO is correct. With high ratios I should be able to get 3".

Dry air. Being this far north that has always been my concern. I think thats why the EURO keep slowly dropping its total on the north side.

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border line +SN here now.

+SN at RFD and DPA too...

KDPA 201808Z 07004KT 1/4SM R02L/3000FT +SN VV013 M10/M13 A3009 RMK AO2 P0001 $

KRFD 201812Z 05007KT 1/4SM R01/1600V1800FT +SN VV005 M13/M16 A3012

really healthy looking on radar right now, should rip like that for a couple hours at least

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The increase in reflectivity over the past half hour in Madison is corresponding to a significant improvement in dendrite structure. Seems like we'll be on the edge of this good snow for duration of the storm, but the band firing up near the WI/IL/IA border looks promising and we may see some even heavier snow.

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border line +SN here now.

+SN at RFD and DPA too...

KDPA 201808Z 07004KT 1/4SM R02L/3000FT +SN VV013 M10/M13 A3009 RMK AO2 P0001 $

KRFD 201812Z 05007KT 1/4SM R01/1600V1800FT +SN VV005 M13/M16 A3012

add ORD to the +SN list...

KORD 201831Z VRB04KT 1/4SM R14R/2400V3000FT +SN VV009 M08/M11 A3009

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