A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 from LOT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE STRONGLY FORCED FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW. SNOW RATIOS WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE FAIRLY HIGH...AROUND 20 TO 1 OR POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME AREAS AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK COLD. BUFFER SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SUGGEST AN INCREDIBLY DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...FROM NEAR THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 550MB. THIS COULD SET UP EFFICIENT SNOWFALL PRODUCTION. Nice, from what i'm seeing, the high ratio talk is much more deserved for the time being than during the previous event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Holy sh*t they weren't kidding! This is off the 0z GFS, 12z run not as favorable for this deep of a DGZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 be interesting to see if the euro keeps it south and dryer.. doubt it but prob a bad idea to doubt it.. just seemed a little fishy of a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GGEM loves eastern IA to northern IL...dropping a bullseye of 0.51" over NW IL from hour 72 to 84. http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html 0z Euro should be thrown aside, as the consensus seems to favor the corridor from I-80 north to MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GGEM looks like the gfs and came in further north from the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Canadian is even wetter. 10mm (0.40") or more for much of Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GGEM loves eastern IA to northern IL...dropping a bullseye of 0.51" over NW IL from hour 72 to 84. http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html 0z Euro should be thrown aside, as the consensus seems to favor the corridor from I-80 north to MKE. good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Added bonus that surface winds should be relatively light with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 good stuff I-94 Special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looks like we might get some snow to replace what we lost over the last day and a half. Synoptic snows are much nicer than LES because everyone gets in on the act, but I won't complain about the LES either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I'm wishing this one north to snow-starved Minnesota as I'll be up there for a hopeful snowmobiling trip this weekend... there's no snow to be found in central MN in mid-January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I'm wishing this one north to snow-starved Minnesota as I'll be up there for a hopeful snowmobiling trip this weekend... there's no snow to be found in central MN in mid-January! Try northern WI (Eagle River area) if you get a chance. I was there this past weekend; they have pretty good trail conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I-94 Special! Most def. Nice solid event event along that corridor. This esspecially true for the DTW crew. I would be a touch nervous if I lived to far north or south on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z Ukie looks like it'll be coming in relatively hot...maps through 72 hours linked below. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 a couple clunkers but relatively good consensus here http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/f84.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Quite a bit of shifting in the past couple runs although not as much with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Much of the precip with this system should be snow but there are some indications of a band of light icing on the southern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looks like the 00z runs last night were a bit of an aberration as the 06/12z runs have all trended back Northward to run along I-80 and North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Hm Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro back north...best area I-80 northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro back north...best area I-80 northward. Still not as wet as the Euro. .25" at DPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 the Euro maintaining a drier event is a cause for concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 the Euro maintaining a drier event is a cause for concern. Of course it can't be easy, this is meteorology after all. Can't have all models lock in .25-.50 with 15 to 20:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Of course it can't be easy, this is meteorology after all. Can't all lock in .25-.50 with 15 to 20:1 ratios. Sure, it just seems locked in on a drier overall solution (not so much talking about IMBY) and it does better overall at QPF without the tendency to inflate like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looks like LAF and OKK will miss this one for the most part. Boo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 What we looking at QPF for the DTW area.. Roughly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro seems to be alright, but then once it hits Michigan it starts weakening..then leaves Michigan starts intensifying.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 What we looking at QPF for the DTW area.. Roughly? .25-all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 2-5" north of I-80 seems like a reasonable call at this stage. Euro remains stingier, but 0.25" could fluff up...if ratios work out of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12zECMWF LSE: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -11.5 -12.0 1023 62 100 0.07 544 526 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -12.1 -10.5 1021 81 96 0.09 545 529 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -11.9 -10.7 1022 82 89 0.01 546 529 MSN: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.4 -11.4 1025 62 100 0.05 545 527 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -11.6 -8.5 1022 83 99 0.16 547 531 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -9.9 -9.0 1020 88 91 0.03 548 532 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -9.9 -8.0 1020 88 43 0.01 550 535 MKE: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -9.8 -12.4 1025 56 100 0.02 545 526 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.6 -9.0 1021 82 99 0.16 547 531 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.6 -8.7 1019 85 97 0.05 548 533 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.9 -7.7 1018 84 53 0.02 550 536 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -2.7 -5.5 1019 75 20 0.01 553 538 SBM: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -10.0 -11.3 1023 79 99 0.08 544 527 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.7 -11.1 1020 81 98 0.02 545 529 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -7.7 -10.6 1020 82 69 0.01 547 532 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -3.7 -7.7 1020 73 32 0.01 550 535 CID: FRI 12Z 20-JAN -12.7 -8.0 1023 50 99 0.01 549 532 FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.0 -6.4 1021 76 92 0.12 551 535 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.6 -5.0 1019 80 89 0.02 551 537 DVN: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -8.7 -6.1 1022 69 91 0.10 552 535 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.2 -3.9 1019 76 92 0.03 552 538 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -6.1 -4.5 1018 80 64 0.01 552 538 PIA: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -4.9 -4.0 1021 45 84 0.03 554 538 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -2.9 -1.7 1018 50 68 0.01 555 541 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.6 -1.1 1017 65 89 0.01 554 541 RFD: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.5 -9.0 1024 69 100 0.09 549 530 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.4 -6.3 1020 85 100 0.15 550 534 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -6.6 -6.7 1019 88 95 0.03 550 535 ORD: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.8 -9.2 1024 68 99 0.04 549 531 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -5.6 -5.8 1020 84 100 0.18 551 535 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.6 -6.1 1019 87 99 0.06 550 536 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -4.7 -4.1 1017 88 28 0.01 552 539 MDW: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.3 -8.7 1023 65 99 0.04 550 531 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -5.4 -5.1 1020 80 95 0.15 551 536 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.4 -5.1 1018 83 99 0.06 551 537 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.3 -3.3 1017 86 30 0.01 553 539 DEC: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -1.2 0.5 1016 46 56 0.01 557 544 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -1.7 1.5 1015 73 91 0.04 556 544 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -3.0 1.7 1015 78 55 0.03 557 545 VPZ: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -5.6 -8.3 1024 53 100 0.01 550 532 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.0 -4.1 1021 76 92 0.11 552 536 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.1 -3.3 1018 82 100 0.06 552 538 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -6.9 -1.9 1017 87 38 0.01 553 540 LAF: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -2.8 -1.1 1019 47 66 0.01 555 540 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -2.3 0.9 1016 72 98 0.05 555 542 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.6 -0.2 1016 82 67 0.06 556 544 IND: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -0.9 3.3 1015 70 88 0.03 557 545 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -1.2 2.3 1015 90 79 0.12 557 546 OKK: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -3.5 -1.9 1020 52 79 0.02 555 539 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -2.7 0.6 1017 70 98 0.04 554 541 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.8 -0.3 1016 83 75 0.09 556 543 FWA: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -5.2 -3.7 1022 65 98 0.07 553 536 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.1 -0.9 1018 76 97 0.06 553 539 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -3.7 -1.6 1017 84 83 0.07 554 541 HAO: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -0.7 4.0 1016 72 85 0.03 558 545 SAT 12Z 21-JAN 0.3 4.2 1014 93 99 0.08 559 548 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 4.0 5.3 1014 83 71 0.03 560 549 DAY: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -2.0 -1.1 1021 46 91 0.01 557 540 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -1.6 2.4 1017 63 88 0.03 556 543 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -1.0 2.9 1015 90 96 0.10 557 545 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 2.7 3.7 1014 83 64 0.07 559 547 CMH: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -1.3 1.0 1018 56 99 0.02 556 541 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -0.6 2.8 1015 92 94 0.15 557 545 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 2.4 3.9 1014 87 79 0.03 559 547 TDZ: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -5.2 -7.6 1024 63 100 0.04 551 532 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.5 -4.2 1020 83 99 0.16 551 536 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.9 -3.4 1018 89 95 0.09 552 538 CLE: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.1 -8.6 1025 57 100 0.01 551 531 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.8 -3.5 1021 80 99 0.12 552 536 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.9 -2.8 1017 88 98 0.14 552 539 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 0.9 -0.4 1016 80 58 0.01 555 542 MKG: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.8 -10.5 1023 82 98 0.10 546 528 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -6.9 -8.2 1021 85 97 0.05 547 531 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -9.3 -7.7 1019 87 62 0.02 549 534 GRR: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.9 -9.9 1023 85 99 0.09 547 529 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.6 -7.5 1021 87 98 0.06 547 531 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -10.4 -6.9 1019 89 67 0.03 549 534 BTL: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.2 -8.2 1023 77 99 0.11 549 531 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.1 -6.1 1020 85 99 0.11 549 533 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -7.0 -5.3 1018 88 65 0.03 551 536 ADG: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.5 -8.0 1024 66 100 0.06 550 531 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.6 -4.8 1020 87 99 0.16 550 535 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.1 -4.4 1018 89 90 0.07 551 537 DTW: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.6 -9.8 1025 66 100 0.03 548 529 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.7 -5.5 1021 85 99 0.14 549 533 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -4.9 -5.4 1019 87 96 0.08 550 536 PHN: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.2 -11.7 1025 65 100 0.01 545 526 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.1 -8.8 1023 80 99 0.06 547 530 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -6.7 -7.3 1020 85 97 0.04 548 533 YKF: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.0 -11.2 1024 61 98 0.01 544 526 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -7.2 -9.3 1021 78 97 0.03 546 529 YYZ: SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.0 -10.4 1021 73 97 0.02 545 528 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -2.1 -7.5 1020 71 79 0.01 547 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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