OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm feeling about 3-6" for BUF at this time. Kinda crazy how everything transitioned from a classic les event too a synoptic "storm." I'll take it though for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 differential. the "d" is often not used anymore. Tippy is old school. LOL. I'm more old school. I like DCVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm more old school. I like DCVA. lol...the more cosmopolitan term. differential is more correct anyway...technically by qg theory you PVA to increase with height to get vertical motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I definitely think this is the best looking situation I've seen to date this winter in terms of a Berkshire, southern Greens upslope snow event. We probably start briefly as rain showers early Friday morning before the front comes through and then flip over to snow as the temperatures crash. This could pave the way for a nasty flash freeze event along with moderate to heavy upslope snow showers. I wouldn't be at all surprised if someone around here picks up several inches of new snow by Saturday morning in these parts. Hopefully, it'll pan out this time as these events are tough to forecast locally. It depends a lot on things such as low-level moisture, lapse rates, wind speed, wind direction, and overall synoptic features such as vorticity advection and frontogenesis. Hey Mitch, what are you thinking currently? Sure would be nice to put down a couple of inches of fluff on this nice base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 lol...the more cosmopolitan term. differential is more correct anyway...technically by qg theory you PVA to increase with height to get vertical motion. Yeah you're right... looking at a 500mb chart can only tell you so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Euro is more amped up..gives BUF 0.50" of qpf and ROC 0.6"-0.7"...could be a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Does anyone else have any input on the southern greens for tomorrow? Rain til when? How much snow approximately after for the Mt Snow area? Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think areas in the southern Greens and Berkshires have a good chance of getting a few inches of snow with both the FROPA and subsequent upslope tomorrow night. While most of the snow associated with the surface low rides northward to the west, the FROPA should produce some decent snow shower and squall activity as it passes through the area. Lower elevations will start as a rain/snow mix, but quickly flip to snow as the cold rushes in, yielding a coating to an inch. However, at and above 2K this could put down a quick 1-2". The FROPA could result in some flash freeze conditions for some during the morning and early afternoon hours. After the frontal passage, I think S VT and the Berks will dryslot for a while since the WSW flow behind the front is not too favorable for upslope. However, given that there's quite a bit of low-level moisture hanging back and the winds turn more W and NW tomorrow night, I think the S VT and the Berks should get a few inches of powder tomorrow night and Saturday morning as the upslope builds down the spine of the Greens. The dendrite growth zone should lower considerably during the day tomorrow, so any "garbage" snow that occurs during the FROPA should get better with the upslope tomorrow night. These upslope events are often tough to forecast for S VT and points S, but I think someone in the favored areas (primarily above 2K) of S VT and northern Berks could get several inches (2-4", 4-6"?) of powder tomorrow night after whatever occurs from the FROPA. Elsewhere across S VT and the Berkshires a general 1-3" seems like a decent possibility. Of course, there's always that chance that this doesn't materialize as planned and it doesn't give anyone much more than an inch or two. However, I've seen these things over-perform too and someone gets a solid 6"+ event. The Greens from Killington on north look good for a sizeable upslope event, especially tomorrow night into early Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think areas in the southern Greens and Berkshires have a good chance of getting a few inches of snow with both the FROPA and subsequent upslope tomorrow night. While most of the snow associated with the surface low rides northward to the west, the FROPA should produce some decent snow shower and squall activity as it passes through the area. Lower elevations will start as a rain/snow mix, but quickly flip to snow as the cold rushes in, yielding a coating to an inch. However, at and above 2K this could put down a quick 1-2". The FROPA could result in some flash freeze conditions for some during the morning and early afternoon hours. After the frontal passage, I think S VT and the Berks will dryslot for a while since the WSW flow behind the front is not too favorable for upslope. However, given that there's quite a bit of low-level moisture hanging back and the winds turn more W and NW tomorrow night, I think the S VT and the Berks should get a few inches of powder tomorrow night and Saturday morning as the upslope builds down the spine of the Greens. The dendrite growth zone should lower considerably during the day tomorrow, so any "garbage" snow that occurs during the FROPA should get better with the upslope tomorrow night. These upslope events are often tough to forecast for S VT and points S, but I think someone in the favored areas (primarily above 2K) of S VT and northern Berks could get several inches (2-4", 4-6"?) of powder tomorrow night after whatever occurs from the FROPA. Elsewhere across S VT and the Berkshires a general 1-3" seems like a decent possibility. Of course, there's always that chance that this doesn't materialize as planned and it doesn't give anyone much more than an inch or two. However, I've seen these things over-perform too and someone gets a solid 6"+ event. The Greens from Killington on north look good for a sizeable upslope event, especially tomorrow night into early Saturday. what elevation are you at in Lenox? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 what elevation are you at in Lenox? I'm at about 1,150'. The town ranges from 950' near the Housatonic River to near 2,150' on top of the ridgeline that runs just west of town. There really aren't any inhabited areas much above 1,350' though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Could see winds stronger tomorrow than we do with t'storms...0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Not sure which thread to put this in, but in advance of the excitement of a frontal passage, we have another 2-hour delay this morning. I guess once we dropped into the 20's at noon yesterday, things never rebounded. So, a fair amount of zr-/fog have us on pretty trecherous roads. Mine's still snow-covered. As is my driveway now that I think of it. I'll have to do something about that this mroning. 29.4/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 HAIL IN WESTERN CT!!!!! gilsimmons (Gil Simmons NEWS8 CT) Low topped convective showers dropping hail Western CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 That batch is moving towards me too!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Not sure which thread to put this in, but in advance of the excitement of a frontal passage, we have another 2-hour delay this morning. I guess once we dropped into the 20's at noon yesterday, things never rebounded. So, a fair amount of zr-/fog have us on pretty trecherous roads. Mine's still snow-covered. As is my driveway now that I think of it. I'll have to do something about that this mroning. 29.4/29 The ski shuttle is about to leave for N.VT. I walked down to the main road and it's totally glazed with snow and ice. Just got the 2 hr delay call here as well. Fortunately at 85mph on I-91N the tires will barely touch the ice so it will be hard to lose traction. Hoping to return home to some fresh fluff. We set tracks on all the x-c trails last night and thigs have set up nicely. A few inches of fluff will be nice frosting on the cake. Stout base building snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 HAIL IN WESTERN CT!!!!! gilsimmons (Gil Simmons NEWS8 CT) Low topped convective showers dropping hail Western CT cool. Just noticed that BOX is calling for up to an inch here today. Regardless, the winds should keep things lively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 That batch is fizzling out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Freezing rain advisory posted for the GYX region. Also a bit of snow on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Where are the HWW? Expect them to be upgraded regionwide today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 30.1F here Darned icy out Looks to be a fun commute then skiing in a hurricane tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Pretty crazy temp/pressure gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Where are the HWW? Expect them to be upgraded regionwide today Based on the AFD, it seems that south of the Pike would be the stronger candidate for any such thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Based on the AFD, it seems that south of the Pike would be the stronger candidate for any such thing. "south of the Pike"??? I HATE that phrase!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Pretty crazy temp/pressure gradient That bulge westward of the warmer temps through upstate NY is interesting. What's the cause for that? I'd have though a straighter progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 "south of the Pike"??? I HATE that phrase!!! I was going to say it's a south of the Pike wind-event, but I didn't want to cause a ruckus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 That bulge westward of the warmer temps through upstate NY is interesting. What's the cause for that? I'd have though a straighter progression. Good question... perhaps it's b/c the llvl flow is quite strong there...look where the 0C line is...on the colder side the flow is much lighter while on the warmer side they are much stronger. or may topography has something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Good question... perhaps it's b/c the llvl flow is quite strong there...look where the 0C line is...on the colder side the flow is much lighter while on the warmer side they are much stronger. or may topography has something to do with it. I think optino 1 might be more on target (or at least it sounds good) as I can't figure how topography of the area would make that so. Regardless, it is a little interesting to see--and disappointing because that has me further from the cold. lol Is the batch of precip coming through NY (which also has that bulge in it btw) post-frontal or ana-frontal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think optino 1 might be more on target (or at least it sounds good) as I can't figure how topography of the area would make that so. Regardless, it is a little interesting to see--and disappointing because that has me further from the cold. lol Is the batch of precip coming through NY (which also has that bulge in it btw) post-frontal or ana-frontal? might be ana-frontal... associated with the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Actually it might be right along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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