Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I know the focus in the short-term is on tomorrow's threat, so figured it's worth while to break off a thread for Friday's frontal passage. That's a pretty dynamic set-up. Biggest threat may be some extremely strong winds around the area. Soundings show very deep mixing and a strong westerly jet crossing the region. Also fairly unstable for a time so maybe a brief squall with some rain showers flipping to snow showers in some spots? Thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I know the focus in the short-term is on tomorrow's threat, so figured it's worth while to break off a thread for Friday's frontal passage. That's a pretty dynamic set-up. Biggest threat may be some extremely strong winds around the area. Soundings show very deep mixing and a strong westerly jet crossing the region. Also fairly unstable for a time so maybe a brief squall with some rain showers flipping to snow showers in some spots? Thunder? I didn't look at thunder potential, but went holy sh*t when I saw the winds down by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 NAM is pretty unstable across the south coast tomorrow and Friday. Both have LIs below zero. So yeah maybe some thunder each day. Frday could be one of those graupel kind of deals..or even legit pea hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 I didn't look at thunder potential, but went holy sh*t when I saw the winds down by you. the GFS has really strong winds for most of SNE. if you buy the GFS (the NAM has the deep mixing inland too just not quite as powerful with the westerly flow) verbatim it's absolutely howling all over the region Friday. we'll see i guess. sometimes these things are over-modeled but i like the chcs of realizing some good CAA winds in this set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the GFS has really strong winds for most of SNE. if you buy the GFS (the NAM has the deep mixing inland too just not quite as powerful with the westerly flow) verbatim it's absolutely howling all over the region Friday. we'll see i guess. sometimes these things are over-modeled but i like the chcs of realizing some good CAA winds in this set-up. Good thread, interesting setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS is very aggressive Nam to a lessor degree and the Euro is kind of meh. Would really like that 5h to dig more but it still has a ton of vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Typical, we'll get great waves for about 9 seconds before it gets blown out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS not backing down on this. friday would be a fun wx weenie day on that run. all sorts of stuff going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 LOL. sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 CCWeather, care to teach a little about that graph? Where is it and how do you read it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 CCWeather, care to teach a little about that graph? Where is it and how do you read it? sure that's a forecast sounding (vertical look at the atmosphere) basically for Chatham, MA for friday early afternoon. so the point was looking at the low levels - that area from about 1000 mb to 850 mb +/- (marked on the left) which is essentially ground to about 4500' up or so (actually even higher on that sounding) - is really well mixed in this strong cold air advection regime friday afternoon. so in that set-up the lower atmosphere is able to turn over/mix easily and thus winds aloft can be transported downward to the surface at times. on the far right, those wind barbs correspond to the wind at any respective height in the atmosphere. basically it just shows that there's a lot of wind available on friday. we'll see how it goes. sometimes we see these things back off a bit as we get really close to "go time" but most guidance has this general theme right now. the GFS is really bullish and would be 50 to 60 mph winds for a lot of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 CCWeather, care to teach a little about that graph? Where is it and how do you read it? Not to step on his toes, but I might be able to help. It's a SKEW-T or upper air chart for the coords at the top and valid at 18Z or about 1PM on Friday. You can get the map here: http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Click on the map and the SKEW-T will come up. The RED line is the temperature at the given altitude. BLUE is the Wet-bulb temperature and GREEN is the dew point. I hope that helps. There's also a Meteorology 101 forum if you're looking to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Friday night could be one hell of a windy evening. GFS has a mini squall line coming through in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It makes my blood boil to have good wind so close, yet so far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It makes my blood boil to have good wind so close, yet so far away. You take the wind; I'll take the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Friday looks pretty good even the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looking forward to rain and windy with a high of 49 forecasted for friday by okx this evening. It just keeps getting better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looking forward to rain and windy with a high of 49 forecasted for friday by okx this evening. It just keeps getting better Dead nuts wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Dead nuts wrong Morning high will be around 45-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Morning high will be around 45-50. Yeah it will be quite mild everywhere to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Freeze up Saturday morning as temps fall through the 20s overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Morning high will be around 45-50. Yeah it will be quite mild everywhere to start. I read it wrong, thought he wrote Friday evening, my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Dead nuts wrong It will be absolutely torching friday morning steve not sure what guidance you are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I read it wrong, thought he wrote Friday evening, my bad It will be absolutely torching friday morning steve not sure what guidance you are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Man the winds look awesome for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Man the winds look awesome for many. Lets have a nice discussion about whether or not I'm included in the "many" and just how awesome we're talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lets have a nice discussion about whether or not I'm included in the "many" and just how awesome we're talking. This^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 looks like gusts close to 60 here, bring it, thats all I have got this winter.........sitting on 0.0 for the season :axe: :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lets have a nice discussion about whether or not I'm included in the "many" and just how awesome we're talking. Well it's cold air advection and a strong 850 jet, so you will mix down potentially. I'd want some sun to help out, but don't see why you can't get some strong gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I really don't know what is going to happen up here in Central NH. Will it be cold enough for snow when the front comes through? Will it be heavy snow squalls with westerly gale force winds with a quick 1-2" or will the front come through with above freezing temps? I have 1100 feet of elevation in the Plymouth NH area so will be interesting to see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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