tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Finally getting back to posting more often on here after being swamped with work over the past few days. I decided to browse around on the main winter thread on Accuwx today and came across this from a poster who apparently has access to the Euro weeklies and states: "The Euro Weeklies look AWESOME! Going for a Stormier and Colder Approach for the 2nd Week of February. The +PNA is locked in at that time and the -NAO/-AO is locked in. There's also a Neutral to slightly negative EPO at that time as well. Very Good times ahead." http://forums.accuwe...c=23461&st=6380 Would be nice to get a met's opinion on them. was this a reputable poster? A lot on accuwx are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Would be nice to get a met's opinion on them. was this a reputable poster? A lot on accuwx are not. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-weekly-long-range-model-forect/60522 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Would be nice to get a met's opinion on them. was this a reputable poster? A lot on accuwx are not. I don't visit the forum much so I can't be too sure. I question it as well regarding what was apparently shown on the weeklies but if it that is what was depicted it's something to note, though it can still change quite a bit if this run was just a lucky one for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Finally getting back to posting more often on here after being swamped with work over the past few days. I decided to browse around on the main winter thread on Accuwx today and came across this from a poster who apparently has access to the Euro weeklies and states: "The Euro Weeklies look AWESOME! Going for a Stormier and Colder Approach for the 2nd Week of February. The +PNA is locked in at that time and the -NAO/-AO is locked in. There's also a Neutral to slightly negative EPO at that time as well. Very Good times ahead." http://forums.accuwe...c=23461&st=6380 Signed, Matt in Northern Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Thanks for the link griteater! It was a good read. I always enjoy Wes' thoughts on upcoming patterns. If we can get that pna pattern to pop w/ a -nao we just might can get lucky but the model forecast of the mjo getting stuck in phase 6 is kind of a bummer. I would love for it to move into 7 and 8. Oh well, we'll have to wait and see where we end up. Yeah, add it to the list of fails as it seems like the MJO has been in bad (warm) phases all winter. From what I've read on the main board, the Euro Ens is the much preferred model with MJO forecasts, but it's still tough to forecast out past a week or so as Dacula mentioned. You can get links to the Euro (ECMF/ECMM) plots here - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml. Both of these have it going into unfavorable phase 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 It's kind of funny. Everytime the pattern seems to be changing toward something favorable everything goes bad. The MJO sucks, That AK vortex is going to be there till summer and the PNA is negative and staying there and We might have a slight negative NAO here and there. You just have to laugh sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 It's kind of funny. Everytime the pattern seems to be changing toward something favorable everything goes bad. The MJO sucks, That AK vortex is going to be there till summer and the PNA is negative and staying there and We might have a slight negative NAO here and there. You just have to laugh sometimes. Yeah, it's just been that kind of winter. Maybe we can get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Well the 0z gfs appears to be back to cold in the east w/ a ridge in the west around hr 180. Still looking at it so we'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The trough relaxes in the later panels but appears to be more cold coming down at 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Well the 0z gfs appears to be back to cold in the east w/ a ridge in the west around hr 180. Still looking at it so we'll see where it goes. It has 2 or 3 big eastern Canada vortices , which would be good, and a first this year. The cutoff in Tx. opens up into another good rainmaker for the South later next week, the goes up the East Coast and merges with another Canadian wave to bomb out, so that pulls down the cold. If they don't merge, I don't think we'll get that cold, so we'll see how the Doc. handles it. Those have been so hard to get right even a few days out. If that occurs, I think we'll see a change in the pattern to colder weather, with storminess increasing as we head toward Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The trough relaxes in the later panels but appears to be more cold coming down at 384. That's what I wanna hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yeah, it's just been that kind of winter. Maybe we can get lucky. I hope so. Just one storm. I hope that will not be to much to ask for.Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GFS looks to be cold in its latest run. Hopefully future runs will be consistent with this. ^Location: Charlotte, NC^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 0z gfs weakens the AK vortex considerably late in its run. Though it is a fine run and probably has some merit since previous runs have shown hints of that happening, I will have to see the Euro on board(or at least trying to climb on) before getting too excited. Definitely think we are heading in the right direction FWIW. February could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 How is euro looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 How is euro looking? Terrible, at hr 240, the 500mb 5400 thickness line is around Minnisota/Michigan. Which would be Feb 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I don't see anything good with the Euro. 00z GFS Ens continues to hold a ridge along the west coast in the mid-extended range, so it keeps us cool, but no help in the north atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 To me, this is VERY encouraging. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 305 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012 VALID 12Z THU JAN 26 2012 - 12Z SUN JAN 29 2012 INCREASED RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD ALLOW FOR TROUGHING TO STICK AROUND ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A PORTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS IDEA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE LARGE ISSUES. THE 00Z GFS/00Z GEFS MEAN AGGRESSIVELY KNOCK DOWN THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...WHICH ALLOWS A MUCH QUICKER FRONTAL PROGRESSION IN THE EAST. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MID-CONTINENT FAVORS RIDGING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SO DISCOUNTED THE 00Z GFS/00Z GEFS MEAN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GFS this run looked a lot like last nights run if i was looking at it right. There seems to be in and out cold shots from about hour 168 through the rest of the run. Again at the end of the run there seems to be a big blast of arctic air coming down from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Hey steve what did you take away from the latest GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 LOL! I haven't looked yet.. I'll go look and BRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 LOL! I haven't looked yet.. I'll go look and BRB Lol ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I don't see anything to write home about. No real cold air ever drops this way. We have a few lows track over us but the cold air just isn't in this run. Blocking tries to form over the eastern Pacific but it doesn't seen persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I don't see anything to write home about. No real cold air ever drops this way. We have a few lows track over us but the cold air just isn't in this run. Blocking tries to form over the eastern Pacific but it doesn't seen persistent. Thanks. These runs just are not really showing much lately. Just pretty Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I like his way of thinking here. BethesdaWX has just posted a reply to a topic that you have subscribed to titled "A few pattern thoughts". 00z Euro Ensembles are starting to drift towards the GFS a bit in the 6-10 day period. Personally I think things look better than they ever have for February and March..I think we just need to wait for models to catch onto the changes coming. My opinion, Pattern changes involve a major reshuffling of energy and the processes in how it is handled, drawn, and transferred, there has to be a large scale 'reason' for it..and to do that requires energy initially so it is a feedback process.......ENSO is the system's energy base state, to come out of an ENSO event reqires just as much energy variation from "equilibrium" as it required to go into it. So it is an extended process, very rarely do we see a sudden flip and have it sustain, but rather flips that take between 4-6 weeks have a purpose, to re-establish balance, and in this case we have a BIG one on the way, and it has been going on since around New Years. The heavy global cooling we've seen within the past 2 weeks is a sign of it, less thermal energy on a global scale, more cloudiness over the tropics manifesting in OLR decrease, more kinetic energy which when dominant over thermal energy is a sign of imbalance. This pattern change that began gradually around New Years is still continuing, and IMO will take another ~ 15-20 days to fully complete. But towards the end of the process things should rapidly tumble into the new regime and lock in. February, March, April, and May should all be below average around here, I feel. The Sun is the initiator but the process occurs terrestrially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I like his way of thinking here. BethesdaWX has just posted a reply to a topic that you have subscribed to titled "A few pattern thoughts". 00z Euro Ensembles are starting to drift towards the GFS a bit in the 6-10 day period. Personally I think things look better than they ever have for February and March..I think we just need to wait for models to catch onto the changes coming. My opinion, Pattern changes involve a major reshuffling of energy and the processes in how it is handled, drawn, and transferred, there has to be a large scale 'reason' for it..and to do that requires energy initially so it is a feedback process.......ENSO is the system's energy base state, to come out of an ENSO event reqires just as much energy variation from "equilibrium" as it required to go into it. So it is an extended process, very rarely do we see a sudden flip and have it sustain, but rather flips that take between 4-6 weeks have a purpose, to re-establish balance, and in this case we have a BIG one on the way, and it has been going on since around New Years. The heavy global cooling we've seen within the past 2 weeks is a sign of it, less thermal energy on a global scale, more cloudiness over the tropics manifesting in OLR decrease, more kinetic energy which when dominant over thermal energy is a sign of imbalance. This pattern change that began gradually around New Years is still continuing, and IMO will take another ~ 15-20 days to fully complete. But towards the end of the process things should rapidly tumble into the new regime and lock in. February, March, April, and May should all be below average around here, I feel. The Sun is the initiator but the process occurs terrestrially. Lol ya i just got through reading that. I have read a lot of his stuff and he seems to think that the sun has a lot to do with our weather patterns and stuff. Pretty interesting for what he has been saying. i like it also. I hope he is right, the models seem to be having a very hard time nailing anything down Med-long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Consider the source for life here on Earth is the Sun and you have a highly plausible reason for expecting the Sun to trigger weather events here on earth. I think we tend to look too much at the little details and maybe miss out on the bigger picture. There are forces at work on our planet that we still don't fully understand, even the large scale weather patterns we don't understand yet. To dismiss the sun as one of those forces would be like sticking your head in the sand IMHO. We do know solar cycles play a part in our weather patterns though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Ya Steve i agree 100%. I think the sun plays a big role in our weather every year. There is so much we are still learning a great deal about what drives our weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Things look very snowless the next 14 days, if we don't start seeing changes in the models within the next 10 days then I am afraid we are going to run out of time. We start getting to end of Feb we need things to be even more colder than normal. Mountains can still do OK into March but everyone else we need a once in a lifetime type pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Things look very snowless the next 14 days, if we don't start seeing changes in the models within the next 10 days then I am afraid we are going to run out of time. We start getting to end of Feb we need things to be even more colder than normal. Mountains can still do OK into March but everyone else we need a once in a lifetime type pattern. I was trying to explain that to the guys on Accuweather Chat; that in the South we are a bit more testy concerning Winter Weather because we realize that most years, our chances of seeing any go down with each passing day into February, then it is pretty unusual, here in Middle TN anyway, to get a good Winter Storm in March, there is always the Superstorm of 1993, which primarily missed middle TN but that IMO is an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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