FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 ensembles from both globals now took away the neg. NAO in late Jan and early Feb. They still have different wavelengths and longwave patterns concerning first the Texas cutoff and how it may or may not develop and merge in the northeast next weekend, and how the western ridge develops. Its not a clean looking flow on any model now. Worst news of all is negative anomalies stay put in Alaska as far as we can see. Its doubtful sustained cold is coming any time soon, esp. in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 ensembles from both globals now took away the neg. NAO in late Jan and early Feb. They still have different wavelengths and longwave patterns concerning first the Texas cutoff and how it may or may not develop and merge in the northeast next weekend, and how the western ridge develops. Its not a clean looking flow on any model now. Worst news of all is negative anomalies stay put in Alaska as far as we can see. Its doubtful sustained cold is coming any time soon, esp. in the Southeast. Well, you know things are really bad when Robert gets depressed about the SE winter-weather chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 ensembles from both globals now took away the neg. NAO in late Jan and early Feb. They still have different wavelengths and longwave patterns concerning first the Texas cutoff and how it may or may not develop and merge in the northeast next weekend, and how the western ridge develops. Its not a clean looking flow on any model now. Worst news of all is negative anomalies stay put in Alaska as far as we can see. Its doubtful sustained cold is coming any time soon, esp. in the Southeast. That is a bummer! Can we still have wintry events with cold shots? Ala 2000? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Well, you know things are really bad when Robert gets depressed about the SE winter-weather chances. That is a bummer! Can we still have wintry events with cold shots? Ala 2000? Thanks I just don't see sustained cold, but we should get some periods of cold air, and GFS and now ECMWF both have next weekends cold shot, but what happens right after is a ?. the op. ecmwf doesn't look bad as it has the flow pushing south, with another couple of s/w taking a low road, but pulls the cold out of here, but it could be handling the western s/w wrong, and probably is. Already its changed it's day 6 and 7 look each run, by a huge margin. I'm not going explicitly by the models but looking at trends on both, and so far its hard to get any consistency from either. The biggest head ache is what happens with the cutoff and if it phases next weekend in the Northeast, just a couple days ago the ecmwf run left it meandering along the Gulf for the whole run, now its similar to GFS but doesnt' phase in Northeast. We'd have to get lucky on timing of a s/w taking the southern track after next weekend when there is a 50./50 in place and cold air plus a decent high over the lakes with cold enough air hanging in here, so far it doesnt' look likely. The biggest disappointment is the loss of the ridging both models had around next weekend north of Hudson Bay and toward Greenland, its barely noticeable now, we definitely could have used that to help depress cold air further south and keep it atleast seasonably cold, but doesn't look likely now. The other negative is how the vortex always seems to stay put around Alaska. At times the models will deepen a storm system there enough to pump up the west coast ridge, which will allow cold to drop into the east, but at other times the that will also help to drop the s/w into a new longwave position in the west coast or Rockies, meaning quick warm up in the east. We could get lucky in that flow, but I wouldn't hang my hat on anything too far out, and certainlynot trust the models or ensembles much past day 5 if they're showing a sustained cold look unless theres real good evidence on all models for it. Last year was much easier to forecast since we had such good agreement, this year has been a head ache, almost no agreement. I'm still hopeful though at some point in Feb or March some areas will finally get a winter storm. There's certainly no shortage of systems coming through th South and east...its just that they're dropping tornadoes and thunderstorms this year, not snow or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I was trying to explain that to the guys on Accuweather Chat; that in the South we are a bit more testy concerning Winter Weather because we realize that most years, our chances of seeing any go down with each passing day into February, then it is pretty unusual, here in Middle TN anyway, to get a good Winter Storm in March, there is always the Superstorm of 1993, which primarily missed middle TN but that IMO is an outlier It's definitely a challenge in the SE, we don't get snow in Dec to often so we really have just Jan and Feb to work with. Even though a sustained Feb cold isn't likely I do think we will get an event in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The other negative is how the vortex always seems to stay put around Alaska. Just what Anchorage needs.....more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Bethesda's theories are just that theories that are not proven. Also you won't find a single scientist who has written anything of the sort. Don S. looked at his idea and ran the number and was not impressed with the very low rate of causation. Bethesda is mocked by a large portion of the board wrt his theories about the sun, so take with a boulder of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Isn't that a major winter storm for northern and western NC on the 12z gfs for this coming friday night/saturday? Looks pretty impressive so far. Probably a bit borderline though. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Isn't that a major winter storm for northern and western NC on the 12z gfs for this coming friday night/saturday? Looks pretty impressive so far. Probably a bit borderline though. TW 850s stay just north of NC but definitly a CAD look. It would depend on coldness/dryness of the source region to the north and of course the strength of the high to feed the air. This may be something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 850s stay just north of NC but definitly a CAD look. It would depend on coldness/dryness of the source region to the north and of course the strength of the high to feed the air. This may be something to track. A few degrees colder than progged here in GSO this morning. Hopefully this will be a trend. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 A few degrees colder than progged here in GSO this morning. Hopefully this will be a trend. TW CAD events always seem to be underplayed on the models. Your right, let's do hope it's a trend. I think it might be our only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 12z GFS doesn't look too bad. Keeps it seasonal in the mid to LR. Out to 288 it looks close with an apps runner but it just stalls in the mid section of the country and by the time it really moves east the warm up is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I officially give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Here's a slight cool down for you guys: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Consider the source for life here on Earth is the Sun and you have a highly plausible reason for expecting the Sun to trigger weather events here on earth. I think we tend to look too much at the little details and maybe miss out on the bigger picture. There are forces at work on our planet that we still don't fully understand, even the large scale weather patterns we don't understand yet. To dismiss the sun as one of those forces would be like sticking your head in the sand IMHO. We do know solar cycles play a part in our weather patterns though. Yep, and cars! We have more cars than anybody, and we all drive on the right hand side....and we have more tornadoes than anybody! Nuff said What is odd to me is that the cold air out at the end of the lr, is always backing up. Never comes forward. Steve, when is that cold air at 14 days, going to be that cold air at 7 days? And I was sure that when I started getting more rain, then mountains of sleet would follow...but...well, I'm getting less rain most recently, but more thunder, way more thunder...and lightening blew out my phone line near the pole. That just ain't right for winter Steve, I'm scared!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Isn't that a major winter storm for northern and western NC on the 12z gfs for this coming friday night/saturday? Looks pretty impressive so far. Probably a bit borderline though. TW It's definitely worth keeping an eye on, but the most important thing is the track and that can't be known for sure this far out. This run has a good track that could make the snow in the northern mountains of NC and into VA possibly, but it appears the model is not quite cold enough, almost though. Its trying to compensate with a lack of warm advection, so atleast there' no real warmth, and the track can be a good one if there are atleast marginal temps, but I don't trust its temps this far out yet. With the ridging in eastern Canada that could force enough cold air south just before the storm arrives, it fits several events I've seen before, but the timing of the cutoff opening up is a big question mark. Regardless this run is atleast keeping 50/50 vortex at times, and hopefully it can keep that, more runs than not lately have had that. That would be a key ingredient in keeping atleast some marginally cold air in place, but right now doesnt' favor many other than NC VA region, possibly TN. Again has a major super outbreak late in the run, which it has been loving to do lately. The model keeps thinking a major ridge will develop out west, until it gets more support or works into a realistic time range, its probably just fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Nice cold look, Now we just need it to move about 200 miles east, the pacific looks good. Oh yeah, we just need it to also show up at something inside 7 days. Here's a slight cool down for you guys: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Isn't that a major winter storm for northern and western NC on the 12z gfs for this coming friday night/saturday? Looks pretty impressive so far. Probably a bit borderline though. TW Unfortunately the OP is SE of the ensembles and the EURO, would be nice if the mountains could get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The 12z GFS ensemble just looks terrible in the long run. No blocking, it does have a ridge in the west but to me it looks like the AO is super positive. Unfortunately, it's kind of pointless to even hope for anything in the next 2 weeks, we need to come back to the models the first week of Feb and hope for a mid-Feb miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The 12z GFS ensemble just looks terrible in the long run. No blocking, it does have a ridge in the west but to me it looks like the AO is super positive. Unfortunately, it's kind of pointless to even hope for anything in the next 2 weeks, we need to come back to the models the first week of Feb and hope for a mid-Feb miracle. keep in mind the ensembles have been having different looks every day too, or atleast every other day. Some times the day 10 to 15 looks good, other times it hasn't. BTW, where are you seeing 12z ensemble this early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 keep in mind the ensembles have been having different looks every day too, or atleast every other day. Some times the day 10 to 15 looks good, other times it hasn't. BTW, where are you seeing 12z ensemble this early? Yeah, good point...we should be taking the good and bad with a grain of salt. On stormvista the ensembles start immediately after the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Like many have said as we get into february here in the south, as each day passes it gets harder and harder to get it to snow. Pretty ironic though we are in a mild la-nina pattern a typical dry pattern and it has been so wet. Over 4 inches of rain so far for the month with possibly another 1 to 2 inches the rest of the month. Ground is like walking on a wet sponge that just cannot absorb anymore moisture. Anything showing on the models this year has been 300 hours or later and then it never makes it to the short or even medium range. It's looking like it is just going to be one of those bad winter seasons, that unfortunatley we have no choice but to accept when you live in the south. The last two years were great but, definitely not the norm for here. Hoping in this terrible pattern one or two kinks come along with perfect timing and at least gives some of us some winter weather. With our luck the pattern will finally change at the worst possible time in mid march and then we will have a cold and damp spring.. Hope I am wrong though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Like many have said as we get into february here in the south, as each day passes it gets harder and harder to get it to snow. Pretty ironic though we are in a mild la-nina pattern a typical dry pattern and it has been so wet. Over 4 inches of rain so far for the month with possibly another 1 to 2 inches the rest of the month. Ground is like walking on a wet sponge that just cannot absorb anymore moisture. Anything showing on the models this year has been 300 hours or later and then it never makes it to the short or even medium range. It's looking like it is just going to be one of those bad winter seasons, that unfortunatley we have no choice but to accept when you live in the south. The last two years were great but, definitely not the norm for here. Hoping in this terrible pattern one or two kinks come along with perfect timing and at least gives some of us some winter weather. With our luck the pattern will finally change at the worst possible time in mid march and then we will have a cold and damp spring.. Hope I am wrong though.... its possible Winter is a complete no show here, but very doubtful as of yet. The pattern wasn't supposed to change until early Feb . so thats still the time frame we're watching. In this year, March may end up colder than Dec and Jan were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 keep in mind the ensembles have been having different looks every day too, or atleast every other day. Some times the day 10 to 15 looks good, other times it hasn't. BTW, where are you seeing 12z ensemble this early? Done! http://www.daculaweather.com/model_run_status_main.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 FWIW: JB still says He thinks cold is coming, SSW has reached it's max you can punch the clock in 2-3 weeks the nation will be turning cold. The NAO and AO up and down, models fighting with itself in the long range? Bottom line He is still on board with a very different pattern than what we have had for Feb.... Just hope he's right!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 winter is not over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Done! http://www.daculawea...status_main.php Nice site! You've done a lot of work to it. anyway the ensembles looked good to me. Keeps the trough in the central to eastern states ridging in western Canada and US the whole run. Unless I was looking at an old run. It looked very climo, which is ok , certainly not very warm looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yeah, good point...we should be taking the good and bad with a grain of salt. On stormvista the ensembles start immediately after the OP run. For some reason my link to Stormvista is not working - what's the url you're using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Nice site! You've done a lot of work to it. anyway the ensembles looked good to me. Keeps the trough in the central to eastern states ridging in western Canada and US the whole run. Unless I was looking at an old run. It looked very climo, which is ok , certainly not very warm looking. Agreed, not warm more seasonal looking, but I didn't see any blocking and the AO was positive. I am of the opinion we really really need blocking to get snow, I know it's not a must, but I don't remember the last one we had without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 For some reason my link to Stormvista is not working - what's the url you're using? Here is what I use... http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/node Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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