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SE Mid-Long Range Discussion II


strongwxnc

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1 Remember that number because that is how storms we will have this year in our neck of the woods. So enjoy the warm dry winter. And see you in the Crum Chat for that one Storm. LoL :axe: To Winter!

That may be. It could be one big storm but possibly large enough to put mostly everyone at or above average in snowfall (or not). Who knows to be honest. I mentioned earlier how even if January didn't produce something, we have all of February and the first half of March so there is still plenty of time to get in a few storms. Attempting to forecast a week out, let alone for an ENTIRE season has been rather difficult this winter compared to the previous winter. I was already wrong about December's potential but then again our best threat for snow isn't really until this month anyway, which fits climo but that's the thing about winter down here in the Southeast. You really can't expect much but we have had our moments even in a terrible pattern. We already knew what to expect for the most part during the 2010-2011 winter with strong dual blocking in place but the systems themselves were still difficult to track since there was so much variability, be it track, phasing, strength, etc. For this winter it has been possibilities of all sorts and you really can't lock onto one scenario. History will tell you that in a situation like this, there will be lots of variability amongst the modeling even if they all latch onto one particular idea regarding placement of a vortex or maybe how the flow across a particular region behaves. We can only wait and see if the blocking that Robert and a few others have been going on about works out well for us but my idea remains the same (a colder pattern with potential for a few systems to bring wintry mayhem) from this mid-month to the end. No guarantees on where the rest of our winter goes that's for sure but I would advise to just keep watching and perhaps we will cash in good in the latter. Things have been looking better in the long term but until then, we need to take it one step at a time and see if we can keep it up from here.

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As for the 6z GFS solution of snow...well it puts MBY in the bullseye for the most snow...so it has to be right!

Unfortunately there is a lot of model agreement among with Euro/CMC/UK and now GFS, for the weekend storm. Even the 6z NAM doesn't phase that cutoff. It looks rather bleak for the weekend storm. The good news in the extended time period we turn seasonal with transient cold shots :axe: .

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Looks like we are still heading to a pattern of supression. High lat. blocking and ridging are going to occur but ecmwf is alone with its northern Russia ridge and its southern Greenland Ridge, not sure I trust the latter yet, but if that happens thats an even more supressed look beyond 10 days. The general idea is that the cold will get pushed further and further south in time,and both models have the southwest cutoff opening up and taking a pretty far south track. GFS is futher south and rides the arctic boundary around 180 to 192, giving a close call to Tenn Valley to NC and VA. The ecm is using that to ride into the Northeast or MidAtlantic,bomb out and help the NAO go negative, or heading that way, then pulls more cold air from the Northwest into the Mid South and everyone in between. So that model seems to be getting further south with the cold, which makes sense since there's so much warmth and ridging at the pole and literally all around the Arctic (on prettymuch both models).

All you can say is that the cold is going to press far south, and its bitter cold at the core, but the big question is always going to be where any overrunning occurs and nobody can spot that yet, not precisely enough anyway, but it probably will occur. And if any wave amps up, the system will be a major winter storm. I'd feel pretty safe in saying still there will be an anomalous Winter Storm "somewhere". That could be the Pacific Northwest or it could occur in the South somewhere, or even the East coast (which wouldn't be that anomalous--but could be a major one even by their standards). Could be all 3 places that get hit at some point during or after the blocking has shaken up the atmosphere.

The models may be missing out on eastern pacific ridging or western Atlantic/Greenland ridging. It looks a little too zonal days 7 through 15 for such a strong temperature gradient, so be on the lookout for a major buckling, probably in the eastern half of the country in that time frame. If that occurs, severe cold would follow.

No need to go too far out beyond day 15, but I'll say the blocking could repeat or re-locate at another part of the N. Hemisphere. Usually the pattern has residual effects and there are usually long lasting effects of weeks when it runs its course.

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I think the past two days is a great lesson on not jumping on each model run. I think the biggest thing that we need to be doing is finding the pattern, then we can figure everything else out.

True. In the big picture, we're heading in the right direction. Supression later next week and the next, and probably chances after that. Any snow anywhere in the South this weekend or next week is bonus.

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@RaleighWx: Models show warm pattern rebuilding for US for late January.

Just a brief transient cold shot?

I do like the trend toward suppression.

You figured the pattern would relax, hopefully by mid-Feb we can get another wintery pattern. If not we better cash in the next 2 weeks. It would be a shame to have a flake less winter.

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Good to hear form ya Jason! Looks like we are see looking beyond the 10 day mark for anything. So I vote that you start the next mid-long model thread. Might need a little it of the old rankin mojo :)

Hey gang!! I am back!!! SHEW...what a rough two weeks! Thank you all for your prayers and/or thoughts! Looks like I am able to jump back in at the right time? Hope all is well! :)

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Hey gang!! I am back!!! SHEW...what a rough two weeks! Thank you all for your prayers and/or thoughts! Looks like I am able to jump back in at the right time? Hope all is well! :)

Welcome Back! you had a lot of folks on the board worried so I'm sure I won't be the last to say glad to see you .

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Good to hear form ya Jason! Looks like we are see looking beyond the 10 day mark for anything. So I vote that you start the next mid-long model thread. Might need a little it of the old rankin mojo :)

I second that motion, Jason starts the next mid/long range disco!! We owe it to him!

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