My CWG thoughts about January temps and snowfall

[usedtobe]

http://www.washingto....html#pagebreakA

big thanks to Bob Chill and Don Sutherland

[hobbes9]

Wes (and Bob and Don), great insight and write-up as usual. Thank you.

[ravensrule]

Another great depressing read like usual. Thank you Wes,Bob and Don.

[wxmeddler]

Nice write up wes! Its always good to convey the forecast uncertainty as much as possible. I think Don's graph with the AO/ENSO really tells the sad truth of the situation.

[Bob Chill]

I have mixed emotions. I'm flattered with being able to contribute meaningful research but I don't like the results of my research at all. CWG does an excellent job at presenting the science in such a way that any reader can understand. Great job guys!

Next time we have a big -AO december it will be alot more fun. The connection appears to be the same for -ao Decembers too. I'm not done crunching #'s yet but so far so good.

[usedtobe]

I have mixed emotions. I'm flattered with being able to contribute meaningful research but I don't like the results of my research at all. CWG does an excellent job at presenting the science in such a way that any reader can understand. Great job guys!

Next time we have a big -AO december it will be alot more fun. The connection appears to be the same for -ao Decembers too. I'm not done crunching #'s yet but so far so good.

Your stats and figures made the post, whether the warmer than normal call works out still is uncertain, I'd give it around a 60% chance because of the cold start. I don't think it will last but I could see the PNA ridge spiking again later in the month. I feel more comfortable about the snow call as more snow years end up being below normal than above normal overall if you look at climo.

[Ji]

Your stats and figures made the post, whether the warmer than normal call works out still is uncertain, I'd give it around a 60% chance because of the cold start. I don't think it will last but I could see the PNA ridge spiking again later in the month. I feel more comfortable about the snow call as more snow years end up being below normal than above normal overall if you look at climo.

do you think we have a good chance at a zero snow month.

I think there is a good chance that Jan will have 2nd half temps below normal

[ravensrule]

do you think we have a good chance at a zero snow month.

I think there is a good chance that Jan will have 2nd half temps below normal

Wes said already that 5.9" is the DCA average for January and he thinks we will get an accumulating snowfall but we will be under that average.

[Ji]

Wes said already that 5.9" is the DCA average for January and he thinks we will get an accumulating snowfall but we will be under that average.

I have a hard time believing 2nd half of Jan will be blowtorch...1st week will be cold...when is the blowtorch going to come in Jan?

[ravensrule]

I have a hard time believing 2nd half of Jan will be blowtorch...1st week will be cold...when is the blowtorch going to come in Jan?

Other than the few day period we will be having after this cold blast next week, i assume he is thinking sometime in the second half of January. He called for above average temps and below average snowfall. He will forget more about the weather than i will ever know so who am i to argue.

[Bob Chill]

Your stats and figures made the post, whether the warmer than normal call works out still is uncertain, I'd give it around a 60% chance because of the cold start. I don't think it will last but I could see the PNA ridge spiking again later in the month. I feel more comfortable about the snow call as more snow years end up being below normal than above normal overall if you look at climo.

It guess it is possible to have a below normal temp +AO month when the PNA locks in for a while. It would be pretty cool if that happens this month. Guidance is hinting at the ridge in the w to flex several times over the next 10 days or so. Too bad we can't buy a damn ridge anywhere near greenland. +pna / -nao is a really good combo this time of year even if the ao doesn't cooperate.

Oh well, maybe we can squeeze in a clipper or decent vort to track south of us when the pna spikes. A 1-3 event would take a load of frustration off the forum for a while.

[ravensrule]

It guess it is possible to have a below normal temp +AO month when the PNA locks in for a while. It would be pretty cool if that happens this month. Guidance is hinting at the ridge in the w to flex several times over the next 10 days or so. Too bad we can't buy a damn ridge anywhere near greenland. +pna / -nao is a really good combo this time of year even if the ao doesn't cooperate.

Oh well, maybe we can squeeze in a clipper or decent vort to track south of us when the pna spikes. A 1-3 event would take a load of frustration off the forum for a while.

If we do not get some snow soon i am coming to the Chill house to spend time with the beautiful Chill family and watch webcams from Western MD .

[Ian]

today was already too cold. f winter.

[Ji]

today was already too cold. f winter.

cold without snow is terrible...but snow without cold is impossible

[Bob Chill]

If we do not get some snow soon i am coming to the Chill house to spend time with the beautiful Chill family and watch webcams from Western MD .

Lol- I have a good skiing game on xbox. We can play that while drinking the coldest beer in MoCo.

cold without snow is terrible...but snow without cold is impossible

That paradox is troubling on so many levels.

[usedtobe]

I have a hard time believing 2nd half of Jan will be blowtorch...1st week will be cold...when is the blowtorch going to come in Jan?

I never said it would blowtorch so you mustn't have read the article. If I remember correctly I said I thought temps would average above normal but not as warm relative to normal as Jan. I also think there is a 40% chance that it could end up colder than normal.

[Ji]

I never said it would blowtorch so you mustn't have read the article. If I remember correctly I said I thought temps would average above normal but not as warm relative to normal as Jan. I also think there is a 40% chance that it could end up colder than normal.

lol..your right. I didnt read the article...i just saw above normal temps in Jan and assumed January. You thinking +1? +2 or higher is blowtorch IMO

[Ji]

wow..i found my old blog. Depressing...2007-2008. Very similar to this one

http://jiweather.blogspot.com/

[stormtracker]

wow..i found my old blog. Depressing...2007-2008. Very similar to this one

http://jiweather.blogspot.com/

It's almost legitimate panic time.

[ravensrule]

I never said it would blowtorch so you mustn't have read the article. If I remember correctly I said I thought temps would average above normal but not as warm relative to normal as Jan. I also think there is a 40% chance that it could end up colder than normal.

I read your article, i was assuming you had said that elsewhere. JI just likes to get you excited i think.

[ravensrule]

Lol- I have a good skiing game on xbox. We can play that while drinking the coldest beer in MoCo.

Well if it is Jan 8th and still no snow, you are on. If we do not get snow by then i may turn into a miserable version of JI.

[winterymix]

I feel more comfortable about the snow call as more snow years end up being below normal than above normal overall if you look at climo.

Wes:

Very nice write up that I can share with family and colleagues.

Compartmentalizing the disappointment about brown lawn rather than

white, it is satisfying to have the explanation.

Some people overcome their blues with retail therapy at the mall;

here in this thread some are discussing Garrett County therapy.

[EastCoast NPZ]

wow..i found my old blog. Depressing...2007-2008. Very similar to this one

http://jiweather.blogspot.com/

I don't know, you blogged about 3 seperate snow chances in a 10-day stretch of mid-Jan. This winter (so far) is making that one look like 09-10 relative to normal.

[Jebman]

It's La NIna.

If you live in DCA - this winter you need another hobby

I got one - Battle Pirates on facebook - been there since May 15

[Jebman]

We need the 1st AmerWx snow chase to the Lake Effect snowbelts.

[H2O]

Great stuff, Wes. Thanks to Bob and DonS for helping out. I am about this close(hold fingers together) to wishing we torch the rest of the way. I want to cut grass in February.

[usedtobe]

Thanks everyone, I half expected the models to show a big storm since I posted that yesterday but they look pretty much as expected. Hopefully, the mjo can help change the pattern down the road. Otherwise we'll be looking at periodic spikes in the pna between periods when the epo is positive an driving the pacific.

[dallen7908]

Is there a connection between MJO phase and ENSO? Are favorable phases less likely during La Nina years? Is a fall into the COD as the phase approaches 7,8,1 more likely during La Nina years?

[usedtobe]

Is there a connection between MJO phase and ENSO? Are favorable phases less likely during La Nina years? Is a fall into the COD as the phase approaches 7,8,1 more likely during La Nina years?

The mjo is most active in years when the ssta are near normal. Strong el nino years the convection spreads east and is in the areas near where phase 8 is located because the ssta are high and support more convection. During strong la nina years the cycle often stalls in the east pacific like it has this year even though this year is only a weak to moderate la nina.

[usedtobe]

Rather than clutter up the January thread, I thought I'd keep my thoughts here and try to keep them to once a day unless the pattern gets more interesting.

I don't see much that changes my thoughts from when I posted the original ideas. BBoy posted a forecast of the mjo which I thought relevant to the forecast problem. The mjo which looked to be marching along towards better grounds is now forecast to take a nosedive back into the circle of death before re-emerging in phase 4 or 5. Either one usually pulls the pacific ridge west and gives a positive EPO look to the Pacific.

Last night's 00Z euro ensemble and GEFS both show a similar look across Greenland into Alaska with lower than normal heights at 240 hr. Last night's GFS looks like it got rid of the bogus next saturday storm and shifted that low north towards the lakes. The euro has a warmer look than the GEFs but neither look cold or favor snow anytime soon barring some type of fluke.

The position of the anomaly in the Pacific is in a place that often leads to some troffiness in the southwest so that may be something to look for down the road. One good thing about the pattern is there is some cross polar flow. The bad thing is the pattern looks better for that air to maybe make it into the northeast. I'd still keep us warmer than normal with the pattern. If you look at the euro 6-10 day 850 temp forecast from last night it is pretty doggone warm. I suspect it is more right than the gefs version of the same product which keeps us seasonal.

By the end of the period the gefs ens mean does retrograde the above normal heights in the Pacific to a position consistent with the mjo forecast. Of course they're both from the same models so that's not a surprise. The gefs keep blue across Greenland suggesting the nao is sitll nice and positive. There still is some cross polar flow but it looks to be aimed at the west not the east though sometimes in such a pattern New England does OK. The pattern is not quite as bad as in Dec but it's still not a good one for the mid atl.