CT Rain Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 6z NAM pretty impressive with 500-700 j/kg of ocean induced CAPE through the SGZ. Nice relatively unidirectional northerly flow 25-30 knots through the BL. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 lol BTV 4km WRF has nearly an inch of liquid on some parts of the Cape. Definitely shows a jackpot more toward HYA than PYM this morning from the 00z run. Our in house 4km WRF (WSI's RPM) has very little QPF out on there. Interesting to see the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 lol BTV 4km WRF has nearly an inch of liquid on some parts of the Cape. Definitely shows a jackpot more toward HYA than PYM this morning from the 00z run. Our in house 4km WRF (WSI's RPM) has very little QPF out on there. Interesting to see the differences. BTV WRF sort of pegged last night's snow up this way... it had some light measurable and I wrote it off as BS but 2" later it might have had the right idea afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 lol BTV 4km WRF has nearly an inch of liquid on some parts of the Cape. Definitely shows a jackpot more toward HYA than PYM this morning from the 00z run. Our in house 4km WRF (WSI's RPM) has very little QPF out on there. Interesting to see the differences. yeah more of an emphasis on the mid and outer cape on the overnight runs. still think there may be two "jackpots" one in the area above and then another near the canal. i will say, the weenie band on the btv wrf over yarmouth/dennis/harwich/brewster fits climo really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Some images from NWS BOX via Facebook. Experimental Models Probs of >1" Probs of >4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Good luck today, folks. You're the only show in town at this point! 33.4/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Wow what a $#ity pattern will do to us.... we're wishing .25 qpf for the cape. In other lame news, my forecast low for tonight is single digits up at the cabin. Will be a good test for the wood stove I picked up form Mark Rosenthal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Looks to me like a two pulser. First should start to expand as the echoes move SE from ORH county etc this morning into early afternoon. That slides down over and off while the actual OES bands get going. Threading a needle i'm expecting a coating to an inch here. MarkO not really wishcasting when every model has had it for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 9z SREF's show .1 to .25 over all of CC and Islands and nothing measurable W of BOS/UUU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 9z SREF's show .1 to .25 over all of CC and Islands and nothing measurable W of BOS/UUU Snow probs aren't all too high but I'd imagine they probably aren't geared for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 9z SREF's show .1 to .25 over all of CC and Islands and nothing measurable W of BOS/UUU Yet I have about .1" here Obv not OES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 NAM likes the Outer Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 It does look like a HYA east jackpot as some have said. I would think maybe another area near Scott as a "secondary" jackpot as well, but just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 Looks to me like a two pulser. First should start to expand as the echoes move SE from ORH county etc this morning into early afternoon. That slides down over and off while the actual OES bands get going. Threading a needle i'm expecting a coating to an inch here. MarkO not really wishcasting when every model has had it for days. your spot is a tough call...i like that spot in these set-ups for that one band that always seems to want to set up n of ptown and run SSW on the western half of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 It's possible the cstl areas of PYM county may get a brief 3-4 hr window as a "wave" of snow swings in from the ne, as 850 winds may briefly be favorable for that. Other than that, looks like an overall wintry night for Phil and even Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 just excited to get these stupid dandelions covered in some ice crystals. these oes things are such a pain...you can literally have a whiteout in one town, and see the stars sometimes 5 miles to the west or east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 just excited to get these stupid dandelions covered in some ice crystals. these oes things are such a pain...you can literally have a whiteout in one town, and see the stars sometimes 5 miles to the west or east of it. It might not be continuous either. If you look at sim weenie radar, you can see how it will come in conv style bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Jealous beyond belief but happy for phil the thrill and c~weat/////////enjoy guys and post some pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Jealous beyond belief but happy for phil the thrill and c~weat/////////enjoy guys and post some pics! They deserve it. They put up with us last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 Jealous beyond belief but happy for phil the thrill and c~weat/////////enjoy guys and post some pics! We'll see what happens tonight. You certainly aren't missing 2/99 or something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 We'll see what happens tonight. You certainly aren't missing 2/99 or something like that LOL, imagine we go through a crap winter and the one storm nails you guys, and Ray gets 4" of fluff on his rear spoiler. He would have sig worthy quotes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 LOL, imagine we go through a crap winter and the one storm nails you guys, and Ray gets 4" of fluff on his rear spoiler. Haha...2/99. See though I'd prefer something widespread so everyone can talk about it. I love oes but it's kind of meh on the board because 95% of the posters don't care. We need 1/05. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Haha...2/99. See though I'd prefer something widespread so everyone can talk about it. I love oes but it's kind of meh on the board because 95% of the posters don't care. We need 1/05. Lol 100% violently agreed. Even a nice 2-4 or 3-5 clipper would bring up spirits. It will probably come sooner or later, but for the time being...enjoy the snow down there. Should look and feel pretty wintry by dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Haha...2/99. See though I'd prefer something widespread so everyone can talk about it. I love oes but it's kind of meh on the board because 95% of the posters don't care. We need 1/05. Lol 'Tis true, I am unaffected but still am happy for the Cape Crew and will be interested in the obs. The board probably won't be rippin' a page every 90 seconds, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Haha...2/99. See though I'd prefer something widespread so everyone can talk about it. I love oes but it's kind of meh on the board because 95% of the posters don't care. We need 1/05. Lol What was the best OES you ever witnessed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The snoinc 4"/hr over in Chatham was insane back in Feb '93. It wasn't directly OES, but defintely the ocean effect contributed to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 HRRR has an impressive convergence band scraping cstl PYM county later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 HRRR has an impressive convergence band scraping cstl PYM county later on. i'm thinking the best of this is probably 1am to 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 nam has some nice lift in the DGZ overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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