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I wanted to create a thread that could compare the two monster blizzards that have struck Cape Cod in the last ten years. From 2005 to 2015 winters in these two years has brought Cape Cod travel to its knees. I remember both of them vividly. Both winter storms appeared in the 7-10 day range while losing them between days 3-7 while bringing them back within 48 hours. Models have poorly figured into these two beasts final accumulation totals. Below are attached two photos, both of the two blizzards at their most intense moments. While the January 2015 blizzard is much more matured at its most intense pressure moment, the January 2005 Blizzard developed an eye like feature as well at this moment depicted in the image below. While the two blizzards developed differently, the results were very much similar. They both passed over the 40n/70w benchmark and they at their most intense sub 980mb at that time. Winds were both fierce in the two blizzards with gusts over 78mph in the 2015 blizzard while gusts over ACK were 86mph in the 2005 Blizzard. The 2015 blizzard dove much further southeast into a position over the Outer Banks at H5 while the 2005 Blizzard dove as far south as Chicago, IL. One was more amped than the other, but not by much. The 2005 Blizzard had a much stronger deformation band and stronger end of the storm mode. Both storms had a duration of 24 hours, while the NAO remained positive in both events. The PNA was positive in both events, while the AO was negative providing the very cold air in both events. Temperatures failed to reach 32F in both events as storms that pass over the benchmark producing their own cold air mass normally do not warm the surface layer over the Cape and Islands unless you live on the island of Nantucket, MA. The Blizzard of 2005 brought more snow to ACK than the 2015 Blizzard, likely due to the presence of a strong warm front in the vicinity of ACK. Models poorly handled the westward progression of both systems as local network meteorologists forecasted a changeover to rain for areas east of Hyannis, the NWS did a better job with the 2005 Blizzard forecasts while they pooped on the Cape Cod forecasts for the Blizzard of 2015. With their initial amounts forecasted for the 2015 blizzard was 4-6" at CHH, we ended up with 30" of snow. The Blizzard of 2005 produced more snowfall at Harwich, MA then the 2015 Blizzard, but they both belong on my wall of fame for the strongest winter storms ever to hit Cape Cod, MA, especially for the Outer Cape Cod. I will have more on my personal experiences later on in the replies.
Coolwx.com shows the 18z GFS producing a few snow flakes for CHH as winds turn northerly at the surface through 850mb for a time on the 19th. Temps look a little too warm maybe around 40F for daytime temps and -8C 850mb temps which should produce a really good delta T number in producing ocean effect snows, so maybe a band or two may develop, I can't wait for December as I think our first accumulating snowstorm occurs in the beginning of the month as PNA stays positive throughout the winter months and then NAO and AO comes negative for a time as well. December 20-30th a big KU special occurs. In my opinion, but this thread is just for the OES event potential on the 19th. We are still 3 days away from it so it is still in question.