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December 18-20 Potential Talking Points

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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isnice

isnice

Posted
Posted

Just saw the Euro :axe:

I will soon be making the list of places that will see 5 inches of snow before New York.

We can start it off with Seattle, Paris, Richmond, SE Virginia, maybe northern parts of North Carolina...you get my point. Everything that doesn't happen in a La Nina is happening :drunk:

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

Just saw the Euro :axe:

I will soon be making the list of places that will see 5 inches of snow before New York.

We can start it off with Seattle, Paris, Richmond, SE Virginia, maybe northern parts of North Carolina...you get my point. Everything that doesn't happen in a La Nina is happening :drunk:

Seattle usually gets more snow in La Nina winters.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Just saw the Euro :axe:

I will soon be making the list of places that will see 5 inches of snow before New York.

We can start it off with Seattle, Paris, Richmond, SE Virginia, maybe northern parts of North Carolina...you get my point. Everything that doesn't happen in a La Nina is happening :drunk:

Shanghai noon:

ZSPD 151130Z 30007MPS 3000 -SN BR BKN010 M01/M02 Q1029 NOSIG

ZSPD 151100Z 31009MPS 2000 R35R/0900VP2000U R35L/1300N -SN BR BKN010 M01/M02 Q1029 NOSIG

ZSPD 151030Z 30008MPS 2200 R35R/1000N -SN BR BKN010 M01/M02 Q1029 NOSIG

ZSPD 151000Z 30008MPS 2000 R35R/0900V1800D R35L/1300N -SN BR BKN010 M01/M02 Q1029 NOSIG

ZSPD 150930Z 30007MPS 2000 -SN BR BKN013 M01/M02 Q1029 NOSIG

ZSPD 150900Z 31008MPS 2000 R35R/1000N -SN BR BKN013 M01/M02 Q1028 NOSIG

ZSPD 150830Z 31008MPS 1200 R35R/1000V1900U R34/P2000U R35L/1100N -SN BR BKN013 M00/M01 Q1028 RESN NOSIG

ZSPD 150800Z 31008MPS 0900 R35R/1500N R34/P2000U R35L/1100N SN BKN016 M00/M01 Q1028 BECMG 1600 -SN

ZSPD 150730Z 31007MPS 0900 R35R/1000N R34/1600N R35L/0900N SN BKN016 M00/M01 Q1027 NOSIG

ZSPD 150700Z 31009MPS 0900 R35R/0800V1200N R34/1100V1700N R35L/0900N SN BKN023 M01/M02 Q1028 TEMPO 0700 SN

ZSPD 150630Z 33010MPS 0900 R35R/1000D R34/1500VP2000D R35L/0900V1800D SN BKN023 M00/M02 Q1027 TEMPO 0700 SN

ZSPD 150600Z 33008G13MPS 7000 -SN SCT030 02/M04 Q1027 NOSIG

ZSPD 150530Z 33009G14MPS 7000 -SN SCT030 01/M04 Q1027 NOSIG

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

I disagree - 0Z GFS OP will trend toward the Euro - Pacific is unfavorable because of the La Nina .....too progressive little room for amplification

I still stand by this statement I made last evening right through this non - event - plus the Euro hasn't shown a hit in days and won't .......sorry ........

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

I think if we don't see a concerted move to the west today on the Euro then we can wrap this one up. 12z would put us right around 96 hrs out which is where the Euro typically excels.

Something about the Euro just reeks if you ask me...I have a bad feeling its going to stink the joint up again like it did last December until the last minute...I'm not so sure we're going to see a storm producing 1-2 foot amounts...as a matter of fact I'm rather confident we won't but a solid 6 inch event remains a strong possibility.

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

Something about the Euro just reeks if you ask me...I have a bad feeling its going to stink the joint up again like it did last December until the last minute...I'm not so sure we're going to see a storm producing 1-2 foot amounts...as a matter of fact I'm rather confident we won't but a solid 6 inch event remains a strong possibility.

The gradient on this storm is going to be so great, I think we have a better chance of seeing a foot than 6". IF, and I stress IF, the low does come up the coast, it will be similar to the storms last year where PHL saw 20" and ABE got screwed (or maybe PHL gets screwed and ACY hits the jackpot - it's a general statement).

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted

The gradient on this storm is going to be so great, I think we have a better chance of seeing a foot than 6". IF, and I stress IF, the low does come up the coast, it will be similar to the storms last year where PHL saw 20" and ABE got screwed (or maybe PHL gets screwed and ACY hits the jackpot - it's a general statement).

What is it with such tight gradients over the past few years? It seems like they are happening much more frequently then in the past, unless I'm just noticing them more since I'm in a location that has been getting screwed lately.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

The gradient on this storm is going to be so great, I think we have a better chance of seeing a foot than 6". IF, and I stress IF, the low does come up the coast, it will be similar to the storms last year where PHL saw 20" and ABE got screwed (or maybe PHL gets screwed and ACY hits the jackpot - it's a general statement).

This gradient though would more likely be skewed SW-NE than it would be E-W or ENE-WSW as the 12/19 and 2/6 events were.

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

This gradient though would more likely be skewed SW-NE than it would be E-W or ENE-WSW as the 12/19 and 2/6 events were.

Right. That's why I was trying to say it was a general statement rather than a specific comparison. The people that would get 6" would have truly "thread the needle."

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
Posted

its still 4-5 days from the event the shortwave isn't even near the continental us and its being a lost cause already lol, just saying there is still a chance that the models could shift for the good again once the wave gets to the west coast. I'm thinking not until Thursday night the earliest should we start thinking what's really gonna happen. Correct?

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

It's encouraging that all models show a storm so its just a matter of a 100-200 mile shift and we are in business. However its discouraging that no models show a hit right now. If we go back a year yes the GFS jumped on board late but at least a couple models showed a big storm several days out.

its still 4-5 days from the event the shortwave isn't even near the continental us and its being a lost cause already lol, just saying there is still a chance that the models could shift for the good again once the wave gets to the west coast. I'm thinking not until Thursday night the earliest should we start thinking what's really gonna happen. Correct?

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

really? so you wouldn't want the GFS/GGEM/UKMET/Euro to have been showing a MECS tonight?

...whatever helps you sleep better!

with as inconsistent as the models have been? no way. the euro may be consistantly showing a miss but for different reasons every run. I would rather not be in the bullseye this far out because the relative skill in predicting an exact track is still low at this point. I won't loose hope till were less than 84 hrs out and none of the models show a hit, including the nam which I think looks promising.

It takes virtually no skill to look at a model and say its a miss basis the location of the coats relative to the coast. What does take skill however is knowing why its a miss and if things look as if they could easily be corrected with a few tweeks. When people say the euro is a miss each time and that makes it consistent, they are wrong, its a miss for different reasons. Just as the 12/14 12z and 18z gfs hits were for different reasons as well.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

I see on the models the -NA0 ridge,PV and the Pacific low are positioned too close together. And they are creating more zonal flow than not, across the CONUS. Which prevents a major storm for most of the east coast. However, I'll wait until 0z Friday to give up. That when some shortwave energy from the Pacific along moves inland. Since the GFS has been phasing it, for more stronger southern stream wave that could come far enough north to graze us.

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

HIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN

CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SATURDAY

WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND COULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO

BRING STEADY SNOWFALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SINCE IT IS TOO

EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AND

ITS EXACT IMPACTS TO THE AREA...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

Interesting...

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_AR_

_AR_

Posted
Posted

HIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN

CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SATURDAY

WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND COULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO

BRING STEADY SNOWFALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SINCE IT IS TOO

EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AND

ITS EXACT IMPACTS TO THE AREA...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

Interesting...

They're just putting it out there that there is a chance for several inches of snow, however confidence is not high yet.

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

IMO, the PV could be the real killer here. Mets, correct me if I'm wrong, but if the PV is too strong, it could keep the storm out to sea, or certainly kill hopes for inland areas at least.

Yes, you are basically saying thing I was on Monday about the wavelengths being too long. That's always been the concern with this system.

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Kaner587

Kaner587

Posted
Posted

The NAM has jumped back tremendously in the right direction. The PV is in a much better position and the trough axis is 150-200 miles further west. Might not pull it off verbatim but at the least it's going to be right off the coast.

agreed earthlight this is drastically different than the look of some of the other models at same time frame sans the EURO which I didn't actually see but heard you guys talking about the much better PV orientation. I hate to get pulled back in here, and it is the 84hr nam but it sure looks a lot better than the last couple runs.

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