December 18-20 Potential Talking Points

[Neblizzard]

apparently the euro isnt showing much more consistency than the GFS!

How's that so? The Euro has been consistent since it backed off the 12z Sun run.....

[atownwxwatcher]

From Will In New England Thread

Wow, way different in the northern stream on the Euro....big differences....it has the lakes energy trying to phase, but the southern stream is so pitiful that this may not get anywhere...but if this has the same southern stream as 12z with the 00z northern stream setup, this might be a big hit.

This is the first time I've seen the Euro go completely different in the northern stream....but unfortunately, the sensible wx result might not be any different, well see. But I'm actually quite intrigued at how much room the Euro is offering the southern stream to phase...it has retrograded the PV so far west that if the S stream had any energy at all, it could rip right up the coast. This is markedly different than the past 3 runs....but amazingly, it might come up with the same SE solution. What a perverse trait of 2010 as Ray would say.

[Chris L]

lol epic fail tn wrt to the models...why does tracking the weather have to be so damn frustrating. I guess its that aspect of it that makes it so exciting at the same time...

Its a lot like life.... Those peak experiences and valley falls go along with weather.

[tombo82685]

ill say one thing the whole h5 pattern on the euro is completely diff. Will said this in the sne thread. If this was 12z and we had that pv move like it did on this run it would of been a huge hit. The problem is the southern enrgy is so weak.

[mattinpa]

ill say one thing the whole h5 pattern on the euro is completely diff. Will said this in the sne thread. If this was 12z and we had that pv move like it did on this run it would of been a huge hit. The problem is the southern enrgy is so weak.

Just goes to show that minor changes can lead to major differences. Maybe the S energy will be stronger tomorrow.

[Zir0b]

ill say one thing the whole h5 pattern on the euro is completely diff. Will said this in the sne thread. If this was 12z and we had that pv move like it did on this run it would of been a huge hit. The problem is the southern enrgy is so weak.

Well the good thing is that southern stream shortwaves usually tend to "trend" stronger as they get into a better sampled region...12z runs will be telling.

[CTWeatherFreak]

How's that so? The Euro has been consistent since it backed off the 12z Sun run.....

well, just compare the 0z with the 12z.. Its the variation in track which results from differences in the upper air composition that makes models inconsistent. Clearly, the euro has been inconsistent with the track... I dont know how one could say otherwise after the 0z debacle.

[IsentropicLift]

this system is right where we want it, still a definite possability five days out. Its not like were forecasting a hurricane here where you can clearly see that a trough is going to break down the ridge and take it out to sea. take a deep breath, relax and prepare for another flip in the models tomorrow.

[SACRUS]

Completely lost the storm? So far, it's the outlier on that, but it has led the way. No reason to give up until we see what happens tomorrow.

Sounds like the ggem or some of the recent runs.

Speaking of the ggem offers another system to track mid next week

[SmokeEater]

this system is right where we want it, still a definite possability five days out. Its not like were forecasting a hurricane here where you can clearly see that a trough is going to break down the ridge and take it out to sea. take a deep breath, relax and prepare for another flip in the models tomorrow.

This is only 4 days out, 0z tomorrow will be telling.

[tombo82685]

if anyone has a chance pull up the h5 map for the euro at hr 120 and compare it to 144, its un believable how much different it is, remarkable. This thing phases but its at cape cods latitude

[Zir0b]

this system is right where we want it,

really? so you wouldn't want the GFS/GGEM/UKMET/Euro to have been showing a MECS tonight?

...whatever helps you sleep better!

[ace0927]

Very, very bad run so far

This has been the trend for quite a few model runs...sans the junk GFS....

[bass28]

watch out for the euro its usually bullish with those s/w's in the south one run its amped up another its nothing and of other models like the nam have a amped up s/w then id pay attention to it.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Well the good thing is that southern stream shortwaves usually tend to "trend" stronger as they get into a better sampled region...12z runs will be telling.

This La Nina is characterized partly by very weak STJ. You'll have to see the northern s/w dive way south and trigger a secondary off the middle atlantic coast. That's probably the only way this could work out...and I think it's unlikely, not impossible, but unlikely.

WX/PT

[Kaner587]

Its a lot like life.... Those peak experiences and valley falls go along with weather.

Unfortunately it can be tough sometimes to not let these frustrations get to you but thats why often times it helps to put things in perspective as not getting a big snowstorm ever again would suck the big one but there are worse things in life that we have either dealt with or will have to deal with. Someone likened being a weather enthusiast to being a fan of a specific sports team, the goal every year is to watch your team win a championship (liken this to the uber winter with storms galore and cold) but often times they fall short, sometimes after having an amazing season (good snow good cold), sometimes after having an OK season (decent snow or cold ) or just have a flat out awful season (2001-2002 lol). I think being a mets fan these past few seasons exemplifies this last one real well lol. But lets not all jump ship just yet, at this point the models are trending towards no storm or something of minimal significance it is still 100 hours out, trends were crap tonight obv though...

[Chris L]

This La Nina is characterized partly by very weak STJ. You'll have to see the northern s/w dive way south and trigger a secondary off the middle atlantic coast. That's probably the only way this could work out...and I think it's unlikely, not impossible, but unlikely.

WX/PT

I think the issue is the ENSO strength here. Weak Ninas have a better STJ, see the 1995-1996 season for that...

IF this was a weak nina, we would be in a heck of lot better place.

[Rtd208]

While the trends tonight are certainly not good I am not ready to write this storm off just yet, the 12z runs on Thursday will be my cutoff. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 06z GFS come in with a hit again and then we do this all over again tomorrow.

[whiteoutwx1796]

Weak south jet= LA NINA

[Wxoutlooksblog]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif

This La Nina is characterized partly by very weak STJ. You'll have to see the northern s/w dive way south and trigger a secondary off the middle atlantic coast. That's probably the only way this could work out...and I think it's unlikely, not impossible, but unlikely.

WX/PT

Also, if you look at GGEM, what it is depicting is probably the only way this can work out and it would probably be later on, like Mon-Tues. The GGEM digging the PV way south and developing a surface low over sw NY State at 144 hours. If this all happened over West Virgnia you'd get your bomb to develop off the mid-Atlantic rather than somewhere se of Boston. The way the GGEM depicts, probably big snows for most of New England (see above).

WX/PT

[winterwx21]

Western ridge not amplified enough. Lacking the 50-50 low. As I've said the last couple days, the pattern just isn't that good for a major coastal storm for us. I have to respectfully disagree with those here that have been saying this is a favorable setup. Some key ingredients missing. A storm can still happen, but it requires such perfect timing with those missing ingredients. I won't completely give up hope, as we still have a ways to go. But the chance is slight.

[tombo82685]

http://www.weatherof...ast/495_100.gif

Also, if you look at GGEM, what it is depicting is probably the only way this can work out and it would probably be later on, like Mon-Tues. The GGEM digging the PV way south and developing a surface low over sw NY State at 144 hours. If this all happened over West Virgnia you'd get your bomb to develop off the mid-Atlantic rather than somewhere se of Boston. The way the GGEM depicts, probably big snows for most of New England (see above).

WX/PT

wouldn't that be to warm for this area, with the southerly flow?

[Chris L]

Western ridge not amplified enough. Lacking the 50-50 low. As I've said the last couple days, the pattern just isn't that good for a major coastal storm for us. I have to respectfully disagree with those here that have been saying this is a favorable setup. Some key ingredients missing. A storm can still happen, but it requires such perfect timing with those missing ingredients. I won't completely give up hope, as we still have a ways to go. But the chance is slight.

Stop with the 50-50 Low.

That block is acting like one....

You might want to read some KU storms on which occured with the -PNA. February 1969 for an example.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

wouldn't that be to warm for this area, with the southerly flow?

It might warm up a little briefly but with heights so low and blocking to the north, you'd get coastal development quickly, winds backing to the n-ne and temperatures would drop with the evaporational cooling. Should be mostly if not all snow but I think it's for New England only if that.

WX/PT

[winterwx21]

Stop with the 50-50 Low.

That block is acting like one....

You might want to read some KU storms on which occured with the -PNA. February 1969 for an example.

It's not as good as actually having the 50-50.

[Chris L]

It's not as good as actually having the 50-50.

I agree in normal cases, classic events.

but this is far from regular you know?

[tombo82685]

some lgt precip backs into the region from a retrograde storm in the hr 192 to 198 slow

[tombo82685]

just cold and dry in the long range of the euro

[forkyfork]

this system is right where we want it, still a definite possability five days out. Its not like were forecasting a hurricane here where you can clearly see that a trough is going to break down the ridge and take it out to sea. take a deep breath, relax and prepare for another flip in the models tomorrow.

[NittanyWx]

I agree in normal cases, classic events.

but this is far from regular you know?

How far from regular is it?