December Obs/Disco

[SN_Lover]

Oh i am a little worried and this pattern seems to just suck on and on but i do think things will change. The NAO and AO have been positive pretty much from September through current so it has to go negative sometime. There are signs out there way out there suggesting some blocking and some pretty good cold shots but i think by the end of December we will be in a much better pattern for winter storms. If i am wrong people can stone me! Lol.

Someones wish-casting

[NCSNOW]

Someones wish-casting

They probably just went back and read the thread titles from Page 12 & 11 that where posted in the SE forum last December. If you don't have the patience of Job while waiting on our pattern change then don't go back and look like I did. Talk about wall to wall excitement. What a December 2010 was. I saw frozen precip (most of the time light) every weekend last December. Maybe we can book a historic January this year.

[pcbjr]

Looking back - it was 85º here a year ago today and no one was forecasting what we ended up with - the coldest winter across the board and the most freezes ever. It's going to 32º tonight (never saw 60º today) by way of comparison. It wasn't until 12/8 last year that we started sliding down on temps. Now, I don't have last year's models at my fingertips, but just looking back, perhaps we're all straining. It's still November (at least until midnight).

Here's to hoping and model watching ... :mapstorm:

[LithiaWx]

Looking back - it was 85º here a year ago today and no one was forecasting what we ended up with - the coldest winter across the board and the most freezes ever. It's going to 32º tonight (never saw 60º today) by way of comparison. It wasn't until 12/8 last year that we started sliding down on temps. Now, I don't have last year's models at my fingertips, but just looking back, perhaps we're all straining. It's still November (at least until midnight).

Here's to hoping and model watching ... :mapstorm:

At this time last year there were clear signs we were headed towards cold and stormy weather. Models, Teleconnections, ect.. were all pointing to favorable conditions. I keep hearing "well lets wait till the end of December before we hit the panic button". Well I think I remember some folks on here saying "wait till the end of November before hitting the panic button" a month ago. I'm not saying winter cancel but I am saying we are about to lose a whole month of meteorological winter to predominantly warm temps, with some possible transitory cold shots in between if some mets (who know there stuff) are right. That imo sucks bad.

[Met1985]

Someones wish-casting

Wish-casting or not things will change. Hell it's only November! I remember when we use to not get any snow until after Christmas. The last two years have spoiled people. Yes i am trying to be optimistic rather than saying the hell with winter this year and looking to next which is what a lot of people are doing right now. The change will be gradual not all of a sudden like last year.

[SN_Lover]

Wish-casting or not things will change. Hell it's only November! I remember when we use to not get any snow until after Christmas. The last two years have spoiled people. Yes i am trying to optimistic rather than saying the hell with winter this year and looking to next which is what a lot of people are doing right now. The change will be gradual not all of a sudden like last year.

Right now there is nothing to suggest a major pattern change in the near future. I don't think I ever saw someone say this winter is going to be a bust. I think people are saying that the trend so far and model(s) forecast do not support a major pattern change. I think if your gonna make assumptions that "things will change" that you should back it up.

Right now, we don't have the NAO/AO to save us from La Nina. Best hope we have in the short term, is cold fronts and ULL's like the euro is showing.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

Wish-casting or not things will change. Hell it's only November! I remember when we use to not get any snow until after Christmas. The last two years have spoiled people. Yes i am trying to be optimistic rather than saying the hell with winter this year and looking to next which is what a lot of people are doing right now. The change will be gradual not all of a sudden like last year.

I don't think it was all of a sudden last winter either, could be wrong though. Just went back and read the Day 10 Euro thread HKY_WX made last year which was a win thread BTW. He made the thread November 13, and as you go through the thread it looks like the Euro kept pushing back the development of the -NAO/blocking, hard to tell cause the maps are not static and shows the present day runs. Based on the images it looks like it wasn't until the the 2nd possible 3rd week of December that the blocking really developed, although the NAO may have been predominately negative. Does anyone remember if the models were pushing back the development of the -NAO/blocking last year?

18Z GFS retrogrades the western ridge, and PV moves into Central Canada. Some ridging does exist over Greenland with rising heights, but it's short-lived.

[LithiaWx]

Thw 18Z GFS run is about as bad as you can get with Teleconections... You want the complete opposite of that in a perfect snowy world.

Ensembles are a tad better for the AO.. the NAO and PNA are just as bad.

The Euro is not quite a severe but still ugly.

[pcbjr]

At this time last year there were clear signs we were headed towards cold and stormy weather. Models, Teleconnections, ect.. were all pointing to favorable conditions. I keep hearing "well lets wait till the end of December before we hit the panic button". Well I think I remember some folks on here saying "wait till the end of November before hitting the panic button" a month ago. I'm not saying winter cancel but I am saying we are about to lose a whole month of meteorological winter to predominantly warm temps, with some possible transitory cold shots in between if some mets (who know there stuff) are right. That imo sucks bad.

Oh - I agree about losing the whole month or at least a better part of it,just pointing out that today doesn't absolutely/necessarily portend 2 or 3 weeks from now.

But, in the deep SE, at least, we have the old saying about warm before X-Mas, cold after and vice versa; something to hope for if this is a "typical" year.

[metalicwx366]

Widespread frost event is expected here tonight. Its already 44.

[Cold Rain]

I for one am glad we're not wasting all of the cold now. If I had my wish, it would be cold start to finish, but others disagree and don't want cold without snow. I would argue to get the cold here first then worry about snow. Can't have snow without cold being in place. I'm not too worried about what the long range models are showing now. And frankly, I don't much care what folks are saying about the rest of the Winter. I have noticed lots of times when the consensus is calling for X and Y happens. I've seen it the other way round too. I've noticed that often when the consensus calls for X, X happens. Not to get into a whole thing about long range forecasting, but there is so much we don't know, and the atmosphere can and often does go against conventional wisdom. Therefore, I have much hope for the Winter of 2011-2012. I believe that we'll be just fine. Just enjoy every moment of it, whatever it turns out to be.

[Met1985]

Just trying to be optimistic. Ya your right currently there looks to be no real pattern change that benefits the southeast for cold and stormy. Also going to be a very cold night tonight. Already hit 26 degrees. looks to be the coldest night of the season.

[DaculaWeather]

I for one am glad we're not wasting all of the cold now. If I had my wish, it would be cold start to finish, but others disagree and don't want cold without snow. I would argue to get the cold here first then worry about snow. Can't have snow without cold being in place. I'm not too worried about what the long range models are showing now. And frankly, I don't much care what folks are saying about the rest of the Winter. I have noticed lots of times when the consensus is calling for X and Y happens. I've seen it the other way round too. I've noticed that often when the consensus calls for X, X happens. Not to get into a whole thing about long range forecasting, but there is so much we don't know, and the atmosphere can and often does go against conventional wisdom. Therefore, I have much hope for the Winter of 2011-2012. I believe that we'll be just fine. Just enjoy every moment of it, whatever it turns out to be.

Amen. Look at everyone's winter forecast last season and almost everyone got it wrong. Relax. Back away from the keyboard for a day or two... it will change.

After watching that 4 minute video of the hurricane season, it's a wonder that any of the forecast are correct or that the models can even begin to figure out what's going on.

[Met1985]

Amen. Look at everyone's winter forecast last season and almost everyone got it wrong. Relax. Back away from the keyboard for a day or two... it will change.

After watching that 4 minute video of the hurricane season, it's a wonder that any of the forecast are correct or that the models can even begin to figure out what's going on.

I agree with the both of you. Sometimes to much model casting instead of just watching the weather out your window.

[Gastonwxman]

One thing that we have to remember is that despite what appears to be a new period where winters are colder more often than not, not every winter is going to be what we have recently got spoiled with. Sure it's nice to have things go our way for a change but unfortunately a rest has to come at some point. Every now and then, there will be periods where it is less cold and wintry than others and even in those patterns, you can still wind up with a good event or two. These are those "spikes" that Robert and myself were referring to in our winter forecasts, and this winter may be one of those. I'm not screaming winter cancel yet as we are just now entering December and despite the pattern not trending in our favor (as it stands now), it doesn't mean that we couldn't perhaps get a strong cold shot that actually lasts a few days longer than they have during these past few weeks and with any system developing during those times across the South would be worth watching assuming timing and such are correct. Look at this past event with the ULL. We don't have the best set up for a good winter pattern yes but despite that, many still saw their first snow outside the mountains (and with a few inches to add too) so who's to say that we may not see another one of those later for the next month?

Looking through the analogs that I had for the winter, I had put down the winter of 1967-1968 as one of them. That winter featured a warm December but was followed by a cold January and an even colder February. Of course, this is just strictly going by temperatures.

I know this post sounds a little too optimistic, but the point is there is room for things to become more favorable as winter pushes on even if December ends on a bad note and that there's no reason to assume just because one month looks horrible, it should mean that the whole season will bust on the bad side. Let's just wait and see what is offered before cliff-diving.

[rduwx]

One thing that we have to remember is that despite what appears to be a new period where winters are colder more often than not, not every winter is going to be what we have recently got spoiled with. Sure it's nice to have things go our way for a change but unfortunately a rest has to come at some point. Every now and then, there will be periods where it is less cold and wintry than others and even in those patterns, you can still wind up with a good event or two. These are those "spikes" that Robert and myself were referring to in our winter forecasts, and this winter may be one of those. I'm not screaming winter cancel yet as we are just now entering December and despite the pattern not trending in our favor (as it stands now), it doesn't mean that we couldn't perhaps get a strong cold shot that actually lasts a few days longer than they have during these past few weeks and with any system developing during those times across the South would be worth watching assuming timing and such are correct. Look at this past event with the ULL. We don't have the best set up for a good winter pattern yes but despite that, many still saw their first snow outside the mountains (and with a few inches to add too) so who's to say that we may not see another one of those later for the next month?

Looking through the analogs that I had for the winter, I had put down the winter of 1967-1968 as one of them. That winter featured a warm December but was followed by a cold January and an even colder February. Of course, this is just strictly going by temperatures.

I know this post sounds a little too optimistic, but the point is there is room for things to become more favorable as winter pushes on even if December ends on a bad note and that there's no reason to assume just because one month looks horrible, it should mean that the whole season will bust on the bad side. Let's just wait and see what is offered before cliff-diving.

I agree. All it takes is one or two good storms to make it a good winter for me here and that can happen w/ some good timing. I'm not one that likes it be bone chillin cold and dry. We still have a long ways to go w/ the 2011-2012 winter.

[Met1985]

One thing that we have to remember is that despite what appears to be a new period where winters are colder more often than not, not every winter is going to be what we have recently got spoiled with. Sure it's nice to have things go our way for a change but unfortunately a rest has to come at some point. Every now and then, there will be periods where it is less cold and wintry than others and even in those patterns, you can still wind up with a good event or two. These are those "spikes" that Robert and myself were referring to in our winter forecasts, and this winter may be one of those. I'm not screaming winter cancel yet as we are just now entering December and despite the pattern not trending in our favor (as it stands now), it doesn't mean that we couldn't perhaps get a strong cold shot that actually lasts a few days longer than they have during these past few weeks and with any system developing during those times across the South would be worth watching assuming timing and such are correct. Look at this past event with the ULL. We don't have the best set up for a good winter pattern yes but despite that, many still saw their first snow outside the mountains (and with a few inches to add too) so who's to say that we may not see another one of those later for the next month?

Looking through the analogs that I had for the winter, I had put down the winter of 1967-1968 as one of them. That winter featured a warm December but was followed by a cold January and an even colder February. Of course, this is just strictly going by temperatures.

I know this post sounds a little too optimistic, but the point is there is room for things to become more favorable as winter pushes on even if December ends on a bad note and that there's no reason to assume just because one month looks horrible, it should mean that the whole season will bust on the bad side. Let's just wait and see what is offered before cliff-diving.

Great way of putting things in perspective. It's still real early and things can change. Just hope as we get into December things start to progress a little better.

[dsaur]

I for one am glad we're not wasting all of the cold now. If I had my wish, it would be cold start to finish, but others disagree and don't want cold without snow. I would argue to get the cold here first then worry about snow. Can't have snow without cold being in place. I'm not too worried about what the long range models are showing now. And frankly, I don't much care what folks are saying about the rest of the Winter. I have noticed lots of times when the consensus is calling for X and Y happens. I've seen it the other way round too. I've noticed that often when the consensus calls for X, X happens. Not to get into a whole thing about long range forecasting, but there is so much we don't know, and the atmosphere can and often does go against conventional wisdom. Therefore, I have much hope for the Winter of 2011-2012. I believe that we'll be just fine. Just enjoy every moment of it, whatever it turns out to be.

Maybe it's because I've seen so many winters, but I never expect anything worth mentioning until after Christmas. I think this whole warm Nov, Dec. is a N. Carolina thing anyway, lol. Why any one in Ga would dive is beyond me. The worst winter I can remember, it burned all Jan. I mean, all of it, but still had some cold shots anyway (maybe Dec., maybe Feb, don't remember...I just remember that Jan.... lots of 70's, maybe a few 80's.) Heck, we only get a few inches average in most of Ga. anyway, and after the last 4 years, you could argue we've used up our allotment for a few years to come. Fortunately you don't have balances in weather that way. Sure things balance over time but you can easily have 10 snow years, followed by 10 no years, going by probables Heck, you can have snow on Christmas when climo says "no way, 135 years no way". And, I swear I don't remember any thing of consequence in Dec. other than your masterpiece, though Larry says I have. The only way you can evaluate this winter, is in May, on the first 90 degree day....you look back and decide how it was, lol. As I recall I had pretty much figured winter over, when that amazing weekend Atl. tv met, told me to watch out late next week, for a big deal snow storm. And that hit Mar. 13. You would never, ever see that in July. Only in winter, and winter lasts for months...and it's all out ahead

[GaWx]

No way, Larry In summer it is 90, or over, everyday with little or no breaks....in winter it should be freezing or lower everyday, with few if any breaks! Fairs fair, and we ain't all golfers But that said we don't need bone breaking cold to have winter precip...witness yesterday. Just need a roller coaster with some decent dips, lol.

Did you get close to something frozen yesterday, or were you out on the beach again, eating ice cream? Tony

Hey Tony. Lol about the ice cream/beach! No, I saw no flakes even though I was (and still am) in Dunwoody for now. My 8 y.o. nephew said he saw some flakes!

[Tullioz]

For all of those getting discouraged by the prospects of a warm Winter and below normal snow chances, the last time I was out of the country for an entire Winter was in 86-87. That ended up being the snowiest Winter in Northern NC in my lifetime and I wasn't there tho witness it. I will not return to the US until May, so I expect similar results this Winter. So good luck to all this Winter.

Meanwhile, my current obs here in Mindanao in the Southern Philippines at 4:30pm:

Mostly Cloudy

Temp 87

DP 74

Same as yesterday, the day before, and the day before that . Tomorrow looks like a repeat as well. lol . I guess I will head to the beach and get my daily walk in before the sun sets.

[DaculaWeather]

Wow, got down to 27.1 this morning, they were only calling for 30.

[NCSNOW]

25 imby. Coldest of the season so far thanks to ideal radiational cooling. Check out the Sana Anna winds out west.

[MotoWeatherman]

23.9 here in Dahlonega. 2nd coldest this season as I hit 23.4 on November 18th.

The long...YAWN...range looks.....YAWN....very.....YAWN.....exciting.

[Lookout]

I'm a day late and a dollar short but I did get to see a "mostly snow" snow shower in gainesville tuesday and even a little bit of a mix after I left the house that morning. The snow in gainesville was pretty the 5 minutes or so it lasted before a half mile down the road it went back to rain. I even took some pictures of it though I haven't took the time to upload them yet and figured I probably won't just because it seems pretty lame in comparison to all the snow I've seen the last few seasons.

I figured I'd post this here since everyone has abandoned the other thread and wanted to fully show off my weenieness to everyone.

Anywho, pretty cold this morning. 25.6 with a very heavy frost. Seriously looks like a dusting of snow.

[metalicwx366]

Currently 36 with a windchill of 33. Got down to 34 earlier with a lot of frost.

[rosie]

23.9 here in Dahlonega. 2nd coldest this season as I hit 23.4 on November 18th.

The long...YAWN...range looks.....YAWN....very.....YAWN.....exciting.

19 here this am, looking forward to a few sunny days

[Cold Rain]

Maybe it's because I've seen so many winters, but I never expect anything worth mentioning until after Christmas. I think this whole warm Nov, Dec. is a N. Carolina thing anyway, lol. Why any one in Ga would dive is beyond me. The worst winter I can remember, it burned all Jan. I mean, all of it, but still had some cold shots anyway (maybe Dec., maybe Feb, don't remember...I just remember that Jan.... lots of 70's, maybe a few 80's.) Heck, we only get a few inches average in most of Ga. anyway, and after the last 4 years, you could argue we've used up our allotment for a few years to come. Fortunately you don't have balances in weather that way. Sure things balance over time but you can easily have 10 snow years, followed by 10 no years, going by probables Heck, you can have snow on Christmas when climo says "no way, 135 years no way". And, I swear I don't remember any thing of consequence in Dec. other than your masterpiece, though Larry says I have. The only way you can evaluate this winter, is in May, on the first 90 degree day....you look back and decide how it was, lol. As I recall I had pretty much figured winter over, when that amazing weekend Atl. tv met, told me to watch out late next week, for a big deal snow storm. And that hit Mar. 13. You would never, ever see that in July. Only in winter, and winter lasts for months...and it's all out ahead

Happy December 1! Met Winter starts today. The models still look like crap, but like you said, we have the whole Winter out in front of us.

[FoothillsNC]

23.9 here in Dahlonega. 2nd coldest this season as I hit 23.4 on November 18th.

The long...YAWN...range looks.....YAWN....very.....YAWN.....exciting.

haha. While its true the Southeast might not be getting very cold anytime too soon, its still a very exciting pattern to me overall. We have good consensus on PNA pattern and there's some seriously cold air now and until further notice , up in Canada and the Arctic circle, and actually most is heading for our side of the globe the next couple of weeks. So, if you combine that, with the tendency to get strongly amped (north-south flow regimes)....then a major storm or 3 is coming ....just can't say exactly where yet.

A couple things to watch for those wanting cold and/or ice in the Southeast : The Polar Vortex to slide east of Hudson's Bay. Looks like its going to eventually do just that if the models are right, but first we'll deal with it staying put and helping to carve out the Rockies and Plains trough. This will keep the rain guns aimed at Tenn. Valley /Lower Midwest to Ohio Valley where its already been super-wet this Fall. Pretty soon the PV may slide east, and either a 50/50 low develops or something similar, with strong high pressure coming down from Canada several times that slides east, our first Winter CAD event could occur when that happens. Also, in between that transition when the PV is moving around (particularly south and east), then a supressed flow could offer an overunning snow/ice/mix chance within a couple weeks, but I'm not saying that happens for sure since the models are handling the longwaves pretty badly.

But boring , eh I don't see it too boring for too long anyway. There's still no shortage of extremely powerful storms and still plenty of cutoff's going on. I thought by now we'd see those things begin to go away, yet they still keep on going. Also, a pretty strong arctic outbreak could be on the doorstep, without the usual longer range notice either.... so I wouldn't fret about a "torch" winter and no snow . Odds are, that with so many storms, it'll happen for some parts of the interior Southeast at some point. And it could be a real doozy.

[Met1985]

Nice and cold this morning. Hit a low of 16 degrees. Heavy frost on everything. Hope everybody enjoys the sun today!

[MountainMarvel]

Excellent commentary Robert. I learn so much from you. It was 23 at sunrise, and very heavy frost. The ice ribbons were right on time this year, rising on December 1st. Here are some shots from just after sunrise. Nature is amazing!