Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 figured I see if I can keep my luck running while im sitting in the dry slot of the current system. DVN THE PATTERN FLATTENS ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER PARTIALLY PHASED SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BRING A ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...THIS APPEARS TO BE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT...BUT A LONG DURATION OF MORE THAN 12 HOURS. THUS...WE MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. MKX WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...UPSTREAM BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHES AS TEMPS MODIFY IN RETURN FLOW. A COMBINATION OF DEEP WAA AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. 0z GFS and 12z GEM images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Dusting at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Looks to have some potential for freezing rain across portions of the Lower Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Near ice storm warning criteria here, cuz 850's are all above 0... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Beat me to the punch. All the well, I'm 0 for my lifetime in starting successful storm threads anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Dusting at best. +1. Dry slot will find a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Dusting at best. That was funny the first 8 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 1 to 3 are preliminary predictions per MKE. Probably be more successful than this current big system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Been watching this on the GFS long term, if it pans out, IND might actually have a white Christmas! That is if our temps don't swing back into the 50s before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Hey, another storm that misses me. Good times are here to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 mentioned this in the disco thread too...excited that i may catch the tail end of it when i fly home wed. evening. mpx has chance sn wed with slight ch for wed nite and thurs. they quite understandably haven't devoted much in their afd to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 dvn LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT A WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW EVENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE...WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOST LIKELY REPRESENTS AN ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENT...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IN 12 HOURS. THE SOUTH MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A MIXED PCPN TYPE IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...BUT WITH NEW SNOW OVER MO...WE WILL KEEP THIS ALL SNOW FOR NOW IN THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Some impressive WAA banding shown on some of the models. GEM would give another nice hit to the MSP/LSE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yes, I know people are sick of hearing about the "NW trend", but the models have already done it on this storm. For example, on Thursday IND thought the system would stay south of their area: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 330 PM EST THU DEC 9 2010 FINALLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE BACK INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 7...BUT PROBABLY STAYING SOUTH OF OUR REGION. By Friday, it was clear that it would be far enough north to affect forecast area: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 330 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010 MODELS MOVE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTH. AT TIME 1000-500 MB THICKNESS INDICATE MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. Finally, yesterday, their concern became mixing as an issue in the southern part pf the state: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 340 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010 .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/ IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. EUROPEAN AND GFS SHOW 1000-500 MB THICKNESS WELL ABOVE 5400 METERS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH PRECIPITATION BELIEVE HPC AND MEX TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT TOO COOL THURSDAY MORNING. EUROPEAN MODEL SOUNDING KEEPS US MAINLY SNOW FROM INDY AND NORTHWARD...BUT MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO OUR SOUTH. Hopefully, they are close to locking in on the track of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Right now not too enthusiastic about this system. Remnants of a Pacific cyclone, and it looks like most cyclogenesis will be over ND/MT with an elongated and stretched warm front. BAroclinic zone not impressive and from a dynamic standpoint rather weak...its only saving grace being the persistent lee troughing and south flow/moisture transport ahead of the wave. By the time that front really establishes itself the cyclone over the Dakotas driving the warm advection will be weakening. That East Coast cyclone will play a prominent role too...the latest GFS retrogrades that low a tad more, hence the farther NW positioning and more rapid weakening as it heads E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I'm enthusiastic about this system, as there's really nothing else to talk about for the upcoming week. The thing we have going for us is a strong baroclinic zone, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a decent clipper associated with this. From the 00z GFS. Temp gradient at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I'm enthusiastic about this system, as there's really nothing else to talk about for the upcoming week. The thing we have going for us is a strong baroclinic zone, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a decent clipper associated with this. From the 00z GFS. Tightly packed temp gradient at 850. You also need a relatively strong baroclinic wave aloft to drive frontogenesis and persistent snow showers. That will be the big missing factor with this. I agree, nothing much else to talk about though. Not saying it won't do anything, it just doesn't look impressive. CMC seems too bullish at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 models trending colder fast...probably more of a very light sleet/snow an inch or less here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Regardless of what this storm does, the upcoming pattern looks exceptionally favorable for Manitoba Mauler tracks to affect the Midwest. Most systems will simply recirculate under the block after passing out into the Atlantic. This setup isn't bad for more frequent lighter/high ratio snows as large pieces of energy rotate around the mean PV in SE Canada, and, while not moisture rich, do tend to carry some Atlantic moisture back inland with them. We saw this last year a few times. Good thing about these systems is that profiles are generally pretty safely into the snow category. There's one mauler at h144 on the Euro and again at h192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Regardless of what this storm does, the upcoming pattern looks exceptionally favorable for Manitoba Mauler tracks to affect the Midwest. Most systems will simply recirculate under the block after passing out into the Atlantic. This setup isn't bad for more frequent lighter/high ratio snows as large pieces of energy rotate around the mean PV in SE Canada, and, while not moisture rich, do tend to carry some Atlantic moisture back inland with them. We saw this last year a few times. Good thing about these systems is that profiles are generally pretty safely into the snow category. There's one mauler at h144 on the Euro and again at h192. Those are probably to north for us down here. But the clipper has trended a bit wetter, then this one, if I can get a couple inches on top of the 3-4 I got with this. With a solidly frozen ground we may be able to hold snow pack here for more then 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 anything but rain please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 From PAH 6:28AM this morning... OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO BRING WARM ADVECTION RAINS INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE BELOW FREEZING WITH SNOW PACK IN THE NORTH WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT FIGURE IT WILL CAUSE TOO MUCH TROUBLE AS LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT A RATHER SHORT-LIVED ISSUE GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION TO OFFSET IT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS APPARENTLY FAVORED BY THE DAY SHIFT. ONLY TWEAKED FREEZING RAIN AREA WITH THIS PACKAGE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT COULD SEE REINFORCING COLD SHOT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. _______________________________________ We've got FZRA in our grids here in Missouri for this time frame. Can't wait for the next disco this afternoon (any minute now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18Z NAM is definitely beefier with the secondary wave ejecting into the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z NAM forecast soundings show snow changing to freezing rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 18Z NAM is definitely beefier with the secondary wave ejecting into the plains. ya for sure, this one will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 ya for sure, this one will be interesting to watch. right on cue, heaven forbid we have nothing to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 DVN OPERATIONAL MODELS ON BOARD WITH A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SETTING UP IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. EARLY ESTIMATES FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON THE GARCIA METHOD. BUT THIS IS JUST A FIRST GUESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z NAM Bacially the same areas hit with the clipper a week or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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