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DEC 11-13th Snow Tracking

Dino

By Dino,
in Mid Atlantic

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Dino

Dino

Posted
Posted

So I think this is the latest information I could get for Snow accumulations over the next 126 hours...

So far looks like:

Mountains in West Virginia, Western Virginia, Western North Carolina- 8 to 12 inches

West of Blacksburg, VA - 4 to 8 inches

Blacksburg and Roanoke, VA - 2 to 4 inches (closer to 2")

Along I-81 - 1 to 2 inches

DC/BWI/Annapolis - trace to 1 inch

Small area south of DC could get 1 to 2 inches?

post-1262-0-25739700-1292045252.gif

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Dr No

Dr No

Posted
Posted

It's 42 with a DP of 22 here. When precip falls, the temps will be in the low/mid 30's it seems. I don't know about other locals, but the ground is as hard as a rock. I think some freezing rain is quite possible the first couple hours of the precip falling.

How much backend snow falls will depend on exactly how far SE the closed 500 mb LP gets before phasing with the PV. I think tonights guidance runs will give us the answer. I can't wait to watch the Steeler game tomorrow PM from Pittsburgh. WSW already up in W PA.

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ACFD FIREMAN

ACFD FIREMAN

Posted
Posted

It's 42 with a DP of 22 here. When precip falls, the temps will be in the low/mid 30's it seems. I don't know about other locals, but the ground is as hard as a rock. I think some freezing rain is quite possible the first couple hours of the precip falling.

How much backend snow falls will depend on exactly how far SE the closed 500 mb LP gets before phasing with the PV. I think tonights guidance runs will give us the answer. I can't wait to watch the Steeler game tomorrow PM from Pittsburgh. WSW already up in W PA.

It'll will likely be rain in Pittsburgh during the game but check out the forecast for the Pats/Bears game in Chicago:

Sunday: Snow and areas of blowing snow. Temperature falling to around 21 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as 1. Very windy, with a north northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 35 and 40 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

That should limit the passing attack.

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Midlo Snow Maker

Midlo Snow Maker

Posted
Posted 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
405 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

...WINTER STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW...COLDER
AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF
WEST VIRGINIA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.


WVZ032-035>040-046-047-120515-
/O.UPG.KRLX.WS.A.0009.101212T1200Z-101214T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KRLX.WS.W.0012.101212T1200Z-101214T1200Z/
TAYLOR-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAFTON...BECKLEY...OAK HILL...
FAYETTEVILLE...MONTGOMERY...SUMMERSVILLE...RICHWOOD...
CRAIGSVILLE...COWEN...BUCKHANNON...PHILIPPI...BELINGTON...
MARLINTON...ELKINS
405 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY
TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.


* PRECIPITATION TYPE: RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO
 EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 8 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.
 A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW MAY FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

* TIMING: RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOW
 WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
 START MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.

* WINDS: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. AREAS OF BLOWING
 SNOW POSSIBLE.

* WIND CHILLS: FALLING BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TEN BELOW ZERO
 MONDAY NIGHT.

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Midlo Snow Maker

Midlo Snow Maker

Posted
Posted

lets see how this forecast works ot for Canaan Valley from PBZ (PIT)

WVZ041-120930-
TUCKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS
336 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING
SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES.
LOWS AROUND 16. COOLER. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. WINDY AND MUCH COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND
16. WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 90 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 7 ABOVE. WEST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 14 BELOW.
.TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. BRISK AND COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 15. CHANCE OF SNOW
90 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15 BELOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. BLUSTERY AND COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND
10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS
15 BELOW.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 20. WIND
CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 BELOW IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE 10 TO 15. CHANCE OF SNOW
30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S.

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC213 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010MDZ003-502-VAZ025>031-504-WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506-120315-/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0022.101212T0000Z-101212T1200Z/WASHINGTON-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-EASTERN GRANT-EASTERN MINERAL-EASTERN PENDLETON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...PETERSBURG...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...FRANKLIN213 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO7 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY.* PRECIPITATION TYPE: FREEZING RAIN* ACCUMULATIONS: LESS THAN A TENTH INCH.* TIMING: BEGINNING BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM TONIGHT...ENDING BETWEEN 4 AND 7AM SUNDAY* TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30...SLOWLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE SUNRISE. SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE LONGEST.* WINDS: LIGHT EAST...5 MPH OR LESS.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

not quite sure where the cold front is.. if it was the backedge of the heavier precip the cold rush is definitely lagging. no major wind shifts yet either ... elkins is gusting from the nw now so it seems the main boundary should still be in the higher terrain but headed out in a bit.

rain band has really slowed just east of dc as trough goes negative.. looks like there is enough energy still to come thru to give us snow showers if temps start falling. nam has also consistently advertised some more tomorrow pm.

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aldie 22

aldie 22

Posted
Posted

18z NAM for JYO 1.1"

0 12/12 18Z 37 37 150 9 0.00 0.00 546 544 2.0 -17.7 997 0 -RA CLR 0.0 14.3

3 12/12 21Z 37 37 137 4 0.05 0.00 543 538 1.2 -17.7 994 100 004OVC361 0.0 0.0

6 12/13 00Z 37 37 256 6 0.12 0.00 539 534 -2.7 -22.6 993 100 RA 009OVC343 0.0 3.4

9 12/13 03Z 32 31 303 16 0.12 0.00 534 528 -3.8 -22.2 993 86 -SN 005BKN155 1.1 5.1

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

The front is clearly through out here now with a shift to a WNW wind, and slowly rising pressure. Temps are slowly nudging down, nearly back to 37.

1/15/2006 and 3/8/2005 the temp dropped 20f in 2 hrs.

This front is a slow POS, just as advertised on models. Watching paint dry is more exciting.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Jeez, Ian, I was just ready to post that. The front is coming thru now, but the cold air is lagging behind the divide still. My wind just switched to the west in the past few mins. I'll be watching that area you focused.

this is not all terribly surprising.. but we're probably more into random snow shower territory... maybe enough to whiten the ground a bit somewhere. those siding with precip leaving before the cold air arrived did pretty well on the whole. now we just hope to get 'lucky'.

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