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NNE Late Fall & Early Winter


Allenson

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Canadian and Euro have some wintery precip on the front end for NNE... usual climo favored spots would obviously have the best shot (ie. ME and NH foothills where the cold likes to stay put).

A little more dicey where i am, But yes, Those would be the favored location the upslope and higher elevation areas and some of there valleys where its takes much longer to scour out the cold in those areas..

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Gonna be a real short snowmobile season I guess. At this rate, lakes and ponds won't even be rideable till mid-jan, if we're lucky.

Also, it's 51F at my house. Warmer then I thought it was going to be today. Yea for the green lawn:(

Wow, 51, eh? Still in the low/mid-thirties here today and even snow still in the trees some from last week... The past two nights have been quite chilly and the ponds, lakes are starting to show pretty good coverage. Even the mighty Connecticut River had some ice on it this morning.

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got my hopes up sad.png

I'm pretty optimistic that that's the last rain we'll see for a while though.. euro looks to keep us below freezing and a couple opportunities for snow

Yes, You should be able to maintain what you have up there as thurs does not look like we see all that much in the way of precip as well as it will be cold in the high 30s, The Euro looks colder in the long run with a couple of chances around the 21st and the 24th so i am optimistic up this way for us

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I'm feeling pretty good about our snow chances.. maybe a clipper Sun night and then an OH valley storm Tuesday. Both the Euro and GFS showing those two events. And the GFS+Euro ensembles keep the PV over Foxe Basin with a PNA ridge in the long range.

I am as well, Things are starting to look up, Especially heading into the last week of Dec, Pattern may be starting to trend in our favor.

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Thinking PF might be in line for a little orographic magic on friday. Winds line up decently along with low level RH above 80% through h85. Def. thinking some fluffy few inches will be sqeezed out.

Yeah I've been liking Friday's chances for accumulating upslope snow showers. We'll take whatever we can get.

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The zone forecast is starting to look somewhat "wintery" aside from the 1/2 inch of rain coming Thursday.

facepalm.png

Maybe we can come up with some accumulation in the next week.... or just get lucky with some freak upslope stuff. It seems apparent that synoptic storms are not going to get it done here in the next week or two, gotta hope for rouge meso-scale stuff. Maybe we can get a norlun throw in somewhere, haha.

VTZ006-140915-LAMOILLE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE945 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2011.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELYAFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 1 INCHPOSSIBLE. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCEOF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT..

THURSDAY...RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT

.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOWACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT..

FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S..

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20.HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

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I never saw any precipitation in Burlington today, but when I got to the Waterbury Park and Ride it was spitting a few flakes of snow. We had the same thing going on at the house, which wouldn’t have amounted to much, but when I checked the snowboard around 10:30 P.M. there was a tenth of an inch down, so clearly there had been an uptick in snowfall at some point. There’s still moisture out there in the northwest flow, so I’ll update tomorrow morning if there is any additional accumulation:

13DEC11A.gif

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The zone forecast is starting to look somewhat "wintery" aside from the 1/2 inch of rain coming Thursday.

I’m actually excited to see what the snow totals turn out to be at the end of next week in accordance with the list of events you noted in your post in the pattern change thread:

I think we've got some wintery chances at least over the next 10 days... no big whoppers like we need but at least some things to keep it interesting.

Tonight... flurries with a dusting-1"

Wed Night/Thurs... snow/sleet/zr to showers

Friday... snow showers up and down the cordillera on NW flow

Sunday/Monday...clipper like feature? more light snow?

Tuesday (a week out) this keeps looking more wintery...

That’s five potential winter events in the next week, so aside from the fact that our natural snowpack is on the low side, it’s hard to complain about that. Even when we’re in the zone and the Greens are cranking out their magic in mid season, we don’t always have five winter events in a week, so this should be a lot of fun. The snowmakers have been working hard to put down a man made base, so each one of these events means a chance for skiing a bit of fresh snow on top of that. I’m a big fan of lining up the events and seeing how they verify like you did in your post. Anyway, event #1 is in the books already here with a tenth of an inch down – right in the range you mentioned. Hopefully these events can come to fruition and keep us cruising well ahead of December 2006 in terms of snowfall.

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I was talking about this with a mutual friend and we agreed that what's really noticeable is that we haven't been able to preserve any snow that has fallen and northern VT got shut out of the last storm. When it comes down to it, it's pretty rare that you get between 8-12 inches of snow the day before thanksgiving and within a week, it's ALL gone. Had we had that base down, the 4/5 inches that fell last would would have really opened up some terrain. I know I'd be skinning Bolton and likely much of stowe at least- never mind a few mellow bc lines. I mean we've basically been in a dry december pattern for a week- 10 days now but just didn't carry any snow over.

Two things on friday- somebody down in central VT is tapping a lake band and the WRF looks wet. I like. Of course this makes sense because I have to move into a new condo this weekend and only Ullr would feel compelled to muck up my plans by forcing me to ski powder on saturday.

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Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.01” L.E.

Noting a large area of snow coming in from the northwest on the radar last night, I checked outside around 12:30 A.M. and found that indeed the few small flakes that had been falling had bumped up into steadier light snow with some bigger flakes up near the half inch mark in diameter. This morning at observations time there was a fluffy half inch on the snowboard with a bit of snow still falling.

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0

Snow Density: 2.0% H2O

Temperature: 32.0 F

Sky: Flurries/Light Snow

Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

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