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Second Winter Storm Threat - Oct 29/30


Baroclinic Zone

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You know I won't lie it may be frustrating to watch both of these from the sideline (but we'll get ours sometime), I would love to see a cement storm for the 95 corridor this weekend. It would be absolutely ridiculous considering thetime of year. Its like telling climo to bend over.

I could very well end up in that same situation here, Going to need a few more shifts to the west, That will effect a few to the south though if that happens..

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Well we'll see what the 12z runs do as it will be within 60hrs. My gut is that the GFS will come west just a bit more, but wouldn't be shocked if it held steady. These 12z runs should have good data sampling I think.

i was kind of surprised to see the NAM relatively flat...more just out of its propensity to be so aggressive so often.

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i was kind of surprised to see the NAM relatively flat...more just out of its propensity to be so aggressive so often.

Yeah you would think it would be all fired up. I think there is some wiggle room to the west on the op runs, but sometimes you get these crazy solutions..only to tick east at the last minute.

BTW, Euro and Ukie killed it with Rina. Funny that those models were weakening Rina and also developing that coastal low the most.

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Yeah you would think it would be all fired up. I think there is some wiggle room to the west on the op runs, but sometimes you get these crazy solutions..only to tick east at the last minute.

BTW, Euro and Ukie killed it with Rina. Funny that those models were weakening Rina and also developing that coastal low the most.

Euro and Ukie though aren't really regarded as great tropical models though, no?

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Yeah you would think it would be all fired up. I think there is some wiggle room to the west on the op runs, but sometimes you get these crazy solutions..only to tick east at the last minute.

BTW, Euro and Ukie killed it with Rina. Funny that those models were weakening Rina and also developing that coastal low the most.

yeah i know. don't know if you remember but the euro even had a run that bombed rina out and then literally killed it in like 12 hours - not tooooo dissimilar to what actually happened really.

i'd like to get this thing tucked in close because i think the wind potential is huge given the SSTs and air mass in play.

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yeah i know. don't know if you remember but the euro even had a run that bombed rina out and then literally killed it in like 12 hours - not tooooo dissimilar to what actually happened really.

i'd like to get this thing tucked in close because i think the wind potential is huge given the SSTs and air mass in play.

how were the euro ensembles lots of hits?

i think that unforunately we tick east from here....(or better yet i think the euro could very much crap on us at 2pm today ) .i don't like the nam not coming on board ....i'm really interested in the 0z nam tonite (because inside 48 hours it's a very useful model

after last year i lost my unwavering faith in the euro....and i'm not gonna forget how the euro crapped the bed on many storms inside 84 hours last year ...like every other model

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Euro and Ukie though aren't really regarded as great tropical models though, no?

Well I think the euro is decent with tropicals. My rule with globals regarding tropicals, is that they can give big clues on whether a storm will intensify or weaken. A large or deep system signaled by them is usually a clue to an intense storm, while something that is rather meh looking probably means a weaker solution.

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