CT Rain Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Teleconnections slowly improve with a falling NAO towards negative state and rising -PNA. However the same thing happened 2 weeks ago and that was a fail. The key is to bring up heights in AK. That needs to be done. Even if you look at the 13-15 day euro ensemble mean you can see things trying to change for the better... with the -PNA relaxing and some decent ridging over Greenland. That said given then monster negative anomalies still over AK are still going to still produce a lot of warmth over NOAM. As you said Scooter until those low heights are gone it's going to be a relatively mild setup this early in the season even with a somewhat favorable PNA/NAO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Even if you look at the 13-15 day euro ensemble mean you can see things trying to change for the better... with the -PNA relaxing and some decent ridging over Greenland. That said given then monster negative anomalies still over AK are still going to still produce a lot of warmth over NOAM. As you said Scooter until those low heights are gone it's going to be a relatively mild setup this early in the season even with a somewhat favorable PNA/NAO pattern. At least it is trying. I just want to see things trying to come around and they just might be, but I despise seeing that setup right now. Luckily it is 11/15 instead of 12/15. I hope we are looking at something much different in a month. People don't want to hear it, but it is what it is right now. And as we mentioned, it also does not mean you can't sneak in some snow. We have some crappy Decembers produce some good storms. Lets just get this to change in 2-3 weeks. I'm not really concerned right now, but if we start seeing this stay relatively stable on guidance as we head through the first week of December..then maybe there is concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 At least over the past few days we've seen the +EPO sort of break down a bit, hopefully this trend will continue...EPO has been pretty much positive since late winter/early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 At least it is trying. I just want to see things trying to come around and they just might be, but I despise seeing that setup right now. Luckily it is 11/15 instead of 12/15. I hope we are looking at something much different in a month. People don't want to hear it, but it is what it is right now. And as we mentioned, it also does not mean you can't sneak in some snow. We have some crappy Decembers produce some good storms. Lets just get this to change in 2-3 weeks. I'm not really concerned right now, but if we start seeing this stay relatively stable on guidance as we head through the first week of December..then maybe there is concern. The euro ensembles start to retrograde the vortex from Alaska back toward the Bering Sea by Day 15. So you could conceivably see the PNA jump on our side a bit by early December. In fact there are some hints at some decent blocking over Greenland. Even so there's virtually no cold air over NOAM with such a painful looking Pacific and even with a +PNA that we pop it will be difficult to bring cold air into Canada. So who knows maybe a snow threat in the middle of a somwhat average temp regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Anytime now Kevin will make his third post of the morning about a white thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Remember that KA only gives a winter forecast for the DC area. KA is forecasting overall average temps (coldest for Feb) and snowfall of 20-24 inches (150% of normal). http://fortysouthwx....5450#entry35450 MDstorm Wow...suprisingly robust. Thanks. He nailed 2001-02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Anytime now Kevin will make his third post of the morning about a white thanksgiving. After the last few posts from Ryan and Scott he probably has a white monitor right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Just loaded the truck, sun is out temp up to 63, its unbelievable! ~Viva la sizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Wow...suprisingly robust. Thanks. He nailed 2001-02. That is Allan's forecast I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Nice snowstorm on the Euro TDay, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Nice snowstorm on the Euro TDay, You mean Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 That system next week has slowly been trending cooler in guidance. Might be something to watch. The ensembles hint at it too. The ensembles also try to get some blocking to out northeast and relax the -PNA, but we still have a huge Bering Sea low that throws mild Pacific air into NAMR. It's better looking today however. Maybe I'll have something to track during my week off. I'm taking from this Friday on through next week. Haven't takent that much time off in a row in years......can't wait. It would be very funny if that system did come through. Even if it subsequently melted, some folks pushing 3' of snow prior to TG while so many are bemoaning the lack of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Does anyone know what FYP stands for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Nice snowstorm on the Euro TDay, It's on Wed..not Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Does anyone know what FYP stands for? Fixed Your Post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 At least it is trying. I just want to see things trying to come around and they just might be, but I despise seeing that setup right now. Luckily it is 11/15 instead of 12/15. I hope we are looking at something much different in a month. People don't want to hear it, but it is what it is right now. And as we mentioned, it also does not mean you can't sneak in some snow. We have some crappy Decembers produce some good storms. Lets just get this to change in 2-3 weeks. I'm not really concerned right now, but if we start seeing this stay relatively stable on guidance as we head through the first week of December..then maybe there is concern. So important to remember that. Sure, the temps today are ridiculous. But it's possible for a large portion of the folks here can pull off snow with temps above normal at any point in December. November departures are a different story. But I would not throw any towels due to the lack of mid-winter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Maybe I'll have something to track during my week off. I'm taking from this Friday on through next week. Haven't takent that much time off in a row in years......can't wait. It would be very funny if that system did come through. Even if it subsequently melted, some folks pushing 3' of snow prior to TG while so many are bemoaning the lack of a winter. I'm hoping for something. It's 180 hrs so anything from a cutter to fish storm is on the table, but it has been trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 So important to remember that. Sure, the temps today are ridiculous. But it's possible for a large portion of the folks here can pull off snow with temps above normal at any point in December. November departures are a different story. But I would not throw any towels due to the lack of mid-winter cold. When you have alternating warm/cold/warm...etc, you can do that. It just doesn't make for holding a snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Does anyone know what FYP stands for? For Your Pelting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 For Your Pelting. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 It's on Wed..not Thurs 06z GFS has it too to some extent. It has a Norlun/inverted trough look to it as well that keeps -SN/RN here for a while. White Thanksgiving FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Maybe I'll have something to track during my week off. I'm taking from this Friday on through next week. Haven't takent that much time off in a row in years......can't wait. It would be very funny if that system did come through. Even if it subsequently melted, some folks pushing 3' of snow prior to TG while so many are bemoaning the lack of a winter. Seems like most of your time even during workdays is spent cutting wood, drinking coffe, walking, and posting. I'd argue parts of every week are vacations for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Seems like most of your time even during workdays is spent cutting wood, drinking coffe, walking, and posting. I'd argue parts of every week are vacations for you I thought that too. I asked what he did a while back, but I don't remember seeing a response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 When you have alternating warm/cold/warm...etc, you can do that. It just doesn't make for holding a snow pack. That's true, but seriously folks. Most of SNE doesnt' start establishing a pack until after mid-December, and for many areas not until Christmas is common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 That's true, but seriously folks. Most of SNE doesnt' start establishing a pack until after mid-December, and for many areas not until Christmas is common. And for many areas...doesn't really ever get established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Seems like most of your time even during workdays is spent cutting wood, drinking coffe, walking, and posting. I'd argue parts of every week are vacations for you LOL......given your frequent posts, I would argue the same for you. As far as the other stuff, the benefits of working from home. Meanwhile, my work computer crashed last night, so I'm sort of in a holding pattern today. Work ftl, me ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I think with the warm weather I'm going to put my christmas lights out this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Nice snowstorm on the Euro TDay, How are the ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I thought that too. I asked what he did a while back, but I don't remember seeing a response. I'm in sales and consulting. My company's in Iowa, and I work with colleges and universtities in the northeast to help them with their enrollment efforts. I maintain a home office here at the Pit, so I can enjoy some lunchtime splitting, strolls to the beaver pond, a lunchtime run among other things. The flip-side of course is that I'm never realy away from the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Did anyone get a chance to see Venus last week? I was pissed I missed out. I might try and go to this observatory in New Haven which has a huge telescope and you can get a clear look at Venus as well as other objects in space. A friend was telling me about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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