JamieOber Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Here goes. The first half of this month was insane. Welcome to the sequel. Hopefully this one has less of a disaster-movie theme. Onto frost and first snowflakes and other, better thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 to soon to be gettin this chilly..for your garden folks anyhow.. good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Just delightful outside. 62 here at lunchtime. Hopefully the upcoming days prove beneficial for all of the waterlogged areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Meh the pesky clouds stuck around last night, then fog developed which kept my temperatures up fairly good. I only got down to 36.6°F, tonight doesn't look much better at beating that low either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Too windy. Too much of a cloud deck. Low of 44F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 17, 2011 Author Share Posted September 17, 2011 Got to 37.4 Fri am, only 44.7 this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Got to 37.4 Fri am, only 44.7 this am. same here 37 & 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Dropped to 40.1° this morning...chilly. Beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Last night was officially the coldest night at the Ft Indiantown Gap Metar during this cold spree. Low of 44 which is a nine degree departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Some interesting scenario's playing out with this projected cutoff entering the area around the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Some interesting scenario's playing out with this projected cutoff entering the area around the 24th. looks rainy to be certain, but doesn't look like serious amounts. Will be interesting to see where exactly the cutoff stalls around our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 looks rainy to be certain, but doesn't look like serious amounts. Will be interesting to see where exactly the cutoff stalls around our region. Prolly going weenie style, but maybe the interior NE (down into the PA region might be a stretch) can get some rain to snow/flurries OBS as the the Northern branch kicks into the backside of the ULL and the whole thing swings negative. Long way to go but one can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Not good that WJ is posting his concerns about PA into New England in the DC thread NWS State College meanwhile has to admit that it really impossible to see the smaller scale set ups that will mean the difference btwn some rain and a whole lotta rain. THE FCST ONLY GETS MUDDIER FROM THAT POINT ONWARD HOWEVER ASTHE UPPER TROF REALLY STARTS CARVING OUT OVER THE ERN US. WHILE THE GFS IS WET THURS NIGHT...THE NAM/SREF AND GEFS ARE MAINLY DRY. ABOUT THE ONLY CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER WET WITH BOTH THE SREF AND GEFS SHOWING HIGH POPS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SURGING A CHUNK OF RAIN OUR WAY. FROM THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONFIDENCE ONLY CONTINUES TO FALL OFF. WHAT SEEMS AGREEABLE IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE 12-24 HOUR PERIODS OF RELATIVE LULLS IN THE PRECIP BUT TIMING THEM WITH ANY CONFIDENCE MORE THAN A DAY OR 2 OUT WILL BE VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE. IT ALL LEADS TO A RATHER REDUNDANT FORECAST WITH A LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER WE SEE ANY HEAVY PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. AS OF NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH TRY TO DEVELOP A STRONG WAVE ALONG THE FRONT NEXT TUESDAY WHICH THEY USE TO CRANK OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP. HARDLY WORTH GETTING EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS RANGE AND WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THIS STAGE I WOULD PLACE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR SIG RAINS TO BE ON FRIDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- With soaking water tables still remaining from Lee, well, there should be some anxious days ahead. Edit - just noticed the HPC disco that is in full agreement of the water table situation THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES WILL AFFORDTHE PROLONGED FORCING NECESSARY FOR ANOTHER STRING OF RAINY DAYS... IN SOME CASES INCIDENTAL WITH AREAS OF NEAR-SATURATED GROUND FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Cautiously optimistic about our chances for a decent winter here. Seem like some good signs, from what I am reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Cautiously optimistic about our chances for a decent winter here. Seem like some good signs, from what I am reading. I've read lots of opinions that this will be an interior winter...it's been quite a while since we've seen one of those and long overdue for true CPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Not good that WJ is posting his concerns about PA into New England in the DC thread NWS State College meanwhile has to admit that it really impossible to see the smaller scale set ups that will mean the difference btwn some rain and a whole lotta rain. With soaking water tables still remaining from Lee, well, there should be some anxious days ahead. Edit - just noticed the HPC disco that is in full agreement of the water table situation http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdepd Not sure if this was posted, sorry if it was. A nice write-up from R. Grumm on the heavy rainfall from Lee Heavy Rain from TS Lee and frontal interactions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Not sure if this was posted, sorry if it was. A nice write-up from R. Grumm on the heavy rainfall from Lee Heavy Rain from TS Lee and frontal interactions Your avatar = win. I'll have to read that report later. As for winter...meh. I'll believe a decent winter for interior PA when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Re: Winter. We've seen more of those black caterpillar things this year than the 6 years we've lived here combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 I've read lots of opinions that this will be an interior winter...it's been quite a while since we've seen one of those and long overdue for true CPA. 2009-2010 was a bit above normal but nothing like down your way, 2003-2004 was the last one for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Re: Winter. We've seen more of those black caterpillar things this year than the 6 years we've lived here combined. Yes, same here - all black, no brown band in middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Yes, same here - all black, no brown band in middle. I haven't seen any yet, but I'm still debating whether to believe any color on a mere caterpillar can have predictable weather outcomes. I only say this because I have seen mulitple winters from varying colors, I really don't see any correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 I haven't seen any yet, but I'm still debating whether to believe any color on a mere caterpillar can have predictable weather outcomes. I only say this because I have seen mulitple winters from varying colors, I really don't see any correlation. Yeah, totally agree. I have noted a few other nature things that seem to have some correlation, like very active squirrels, plants rushing their seed making process, etc. Both of the ones I've mentioned, I've noted this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Yeah, totally agree. I have noted a few other nature things that seem to have some correlation, like very active squirrels, plants rushing their seed making process, etc. Both of the ones I've mentioned, I've noted this year. i just said that to my wife the other evning while sitting on the patio about the squirrels. Even the ground hog seemed more active in my neibhors garden then usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The past few weeks have been very enjoyable for me. I have been traveling on the bus to see my gf in Pittsburgh and have noticed a few trees changing on the Turnpike around Bedford and Johnstown. I am quite excited about the colors I'll be seeing in the next few weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 It rained really f'n hard early this morning. Wee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 i just said that to my wife the other evning while sitting on the patio about the squirrels. Even the ground hog seemed more active in my neibhors garden then usual I hear ground hog and garden in the same sentence my first reaction is "trap and move that bastard." The squirrels here on campus are fat but that's not due to winter, that's due to knowing which students are softies and will give up a few potato chips. The past few weeks have been very enjoyable for me. I have been traveling on the bus to see my gf in Pittsburgh and have noticed a few trees changing on the Turnpike around Bedford and Johnstown. I am quite excited about the colors I'll be seeing in the next few weeks! Starting to turn up here, check it out: http://146.186.221.252/cgi-bin/jpg/image.cgi?resolution=704x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The only good squirrel is a dead squirrel. We use them as target practice with pellet guns at the wife's grandmothers in Carlisle. Picking them off the fence is super-fun. Edit: Only, not old. Old squirrels are bad - that means your target practice failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Very muggy here this morning ...miss the cool weather already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Very muggy here this morning ...miss the cool weather already Yeah, 70/66 here...hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The old good squirrel is a dead squirrel. We use them as target practice with pellet guns at the wife's grandmothers in Carlisle. Picking them off the fence is super-fun. Ahh many of my days growing up included sitting on the deck with a Bb gun taking out the tree rats that would come near the bird feeder. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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