MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There's just no friggen way. Low elevation snow in Oct? 6-10 inches? I've seen ORH and others in the NE thread say about this being the coldest looking nor'easter they've ever seen this early.. more like a December storm. Throw on that the typical ocean temps you see at the end of October and your talking a recipe for a bomb.This first wave was crucial to setting this whole thing up and just a real treat to have this early. The nor'easter will already have an abonormally cold airmass to work with. Thus i expect that if we see the heavy precip, snow won't have much trouble accumulating for even folks with some but not necessarily alot of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol at the highs for the next three days. 50's 30's 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Me. lol. I like the spot I am in for this one. A bunch of the GFS ENS have me getting 15"+ and one has 19". So cut that down to like 7-11" and sounds good to me. haha. I will be sure to post plenty of war zone pictures. When I get power back. BTW temp here is now 36 degrees. Oh and I doubt I sleep tonight. This is too exciting. First all nighter..in Oct. Long winter ahead. lol Speaking of which i need to get to bed, gotta be up in lil over 3 hours. Here's the link to the GEFS individual members if anyone wants a gander. Don't seem to be any members sticking out and really skewing the mean, they're just all west and wet. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf042.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol at the highs for the next three days. 50's 30's 50's GFS has for me 40s, 30s, 30s, 30s. Also to note a low of 16 Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Do turkeys even leave the roost during a raging snowstorm? This is going to be some wild hunting Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Do turkeys even leave the roost during a raging snowstorm? This is going to be some wild hunting Sat. Just let the trees fall on them and go pick them up Sat night. If you are thinking about going out in the woods Sat. Not a good idea with the branches that will likely be falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just let the trees fall on them and go pick them up Sat night. If you are thinking about going out in the woods Sat. Not a good idea with the branches that will likely be falling. I thought of that. I'll take my chances. Its the first day of fall turkey after all. Camera will def be going with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 BIGGEST CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LATER TONIGHT ANDSATURDAY...FURTHER RAMPING UP WORDING AND SNOWFALL ACCUMS INANTICIPATION OF A NASTY STORM FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALFOF THE AREA. NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON TIMING AND QPF...BUT SOMEWHEREIN BETWEEN IS THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME. GFS FAST WITH THE ONSET OFPRECIP...BUT A WISE PROFESSOR TELLS US THAT /WARM ADVECTION WAITSFOR NO MAN/. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF ONSET OF THEPRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT. THIS COULD MAKE A FEW INCHESIN THE ELEVATION OF THE LAURELS AND SC MTS BEFORE DAWN ONSATURDAY. THEN...THE WORST OF THE STORM ARRIVES AND SPREADS ACROSSTHE REST OF THE AREA. THE LATEST GFS AND SREF SOLUTIONS AS WELL ASHPC SNOWFALL GUID PUTS A STRIPE OF 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THELOWER SUSQ AND THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...INCL THE POCONOS.HAVE COLLABORATED WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE ISSUED AFIRST SHOT AT A WATCH AREA. MAY NEED TO ADD THE FAR NERN ZONES ASWELL DUE TO THE EVER TRICKY ELEVATION EFFECTS. WHILE LESS QPFEXPECTED THERE...THE SLR/S SHOULD BE HIGHER AS THE TEMPS WILLLIKELY BE COLDER ON THE WHOLE.THE PLUS-SES ARE BIT BIT MORE-WEIGHTY THAN THE MINUS-SES IN THISSITUATION.AIR TEMPS ARE MARGINAL AND DAYLIGHT SOLAR RADIATION ISRESPECTABLE BUT ALSO MUCH LIKE LATE FEBRUARY. WE SEEM TO HAVE OURFAIR SHARE OF STORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE THERAPID DEEPENING/BOMBING OF THE LOW AND DYNAMIC COOLING OF THECOLUMN OVERHEAD. WE ALSO HAVE LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF BETWEEN 0.5AND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE WATCH AREA. THE P-TYPE IS ALMOST NOT INQUESTION OVER ANY OF THE AREA PAST 9 OR 10 AM...MOSTLY SNOW. WILLCALL IT A MIX EARLY...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS WEE CONTINUE TOCOOL OFF FROM SUNRISE HIGHS FOR SAT. THE SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE1-2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS...AND THAT WOULD CAUSEIT TO STICK VERY EFFICIENTLY...COOLING THE SURFACES EVEN IF THEAIR TEMPS STAY MARGINAL. THE BUFKIT PROFILES LOOK VERY SNOW- LIKEWITH ALMOST THE ENTIRE COLUMN ABOVE THE FIRST FEW HUNDRED FEET /ORLESS/ BELOW FREEZING AND FALLING FAST WITH HEIGHT. A MINUS IS THATTHE BEST OMEGA DOES OCCUR LOW IN THE CLOUD...UNDER THE DGZ...BUT80PCT OR BETTER RH/S IN THE DGZ AND ALL SUB-FREEZING TEMPS/SUPER-COOLED WATER BELOW THE DGZ COULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENTAGGREGATION/DEPOSITION. SLR/S COULD BE ONLY 6:1 IN THE MILDERVALLEYS WITH THE MIX AND LESS-THAN-IDEAL NEAR SFC TEMPS. BUT ASMUCH AS 10 OR 12:1 ON THE RIDGES.IT/S THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW THAT IS MOST TROUBLESOME. AS ISNORMAL...MANY AREAS - ESP THE LOWER SUSQ - STILL HAVE A HIGHPERCENTAGE OF THE LEAVES ON THE TREES. THIS HEAVY WET SNOW WILLWEIGH THE TREES DOWN AND BREAK LIMBS AND LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.TAKING ALL THIS INTO ACCOUNT...THE WATCH IS ABOUT 50PCT DUE TOIMPACT AND 50PCT DUE TO THE 6 INCH OR MORE THRESHOLD BEINGREACHED. THE LEAVE PILES AND METAL SURFACE WILL BE THE FIRST TOCOLLECT THE GOODS...AND ROADS WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO COOLOFF. BUT THOSE SNOWFALL RATES COULD GET IT ICY/MESSY REALLYQUICKLY. MANY FOLKS TRAVELING TO STATE COLLEGE THIS WEEKENDSHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION AND START TO CONSIDERCHANGING YOUR TRAVEL PLANS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here is my call on this storm. Might tweak tomorrow after 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 CTP's new snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Dear lord. Merry Christmas..I mean Happy Thanksgiving..I mean Happy Halloween! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow. Won't need white shirts to whiteout the stadium tomorrow. What a change! GEFS: The driest ensemble is 0.75" liquid... the snowiest is 2.55" liq.... with a tighter clustering around 1.5" liq. NAM just coming in and it's made another shift west. How long is this trend going to continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 wow, holy fricking overnight changes batman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I see the ratio's have gone up a little. In NWS discussion. ALL MDL OUTPUT SEEMS TO POINT TO A 10:1 OR BETTER RATIO. BUT AS MUCH AS 10 OR 12:1 ON THE RIDGES. http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I see the ratio's have gone up a little. In NWS discussion. ALL MDL OUTPUT SEEMS TO POINT TO A 10:1 OR BETTER RATIO. BUT AS MUCH AS 10 OR 12:1 ON THE RIDGES. http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off I was just looking at the temps, what a big difference form yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Waking up to: Saturday Snow with a chance of rain in the morning...then snow in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Colder. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph...becoming north 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. ... in October is AWESOME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Waking up to: Saturday Snow with a chance of rain in the morning...then snow in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Colder. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph...becoming north 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. ... in October is AWESOME! i was thinking of you this am. Being in the bankrupt city, wondering you'll ever get plowed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Since this is our first legit snow threat. I would like to make a new Central PA thread. If there is a mod, could he please close this one? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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