Ellinwood Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 6z GFS brings the 0C line down into the WV mountains (0z GFS was close but no cigar)... sub-freezing temps trying to work into the mountains (just a little dot on the map... 0z GFS was slightly cooler at the surface). GFS not showing precip. in that area yet, but there could be some lake effect rain/snow showers. 0z ECMWF brings the 0C line down like the 6z GFS, but the surface temps are a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 yea looks like the models are bringing in the first real true shot of fall air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 BRING IT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 0z euro at hr 180 surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 0z euro at hr 180 surface temps wow! very nice. could being west of the blue ridge actually pay off for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 good to see the only blob of rain that day is where I'll be I'm cursed w/rain; I hope that's not an omen for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 12z GFS has an awesome birthday present for me ...a mega fall cold front mid-late next week. 8pm (0z 17 Sep) temperature on the 16th (my b-day) around 50F . Lows the next day in the low-mid 40s. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtempsGFSLoop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 The wife says it already is cold with the highs in the 60s this week. There's something about that smell you get from the ducts the first time the furnace kicks on in the fall. Looking forward to that maybe late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 12z GFS has an awesome birthday present for me ...a mega fall cold front mid-late next week. 8pm (0z 17 Sep) temperature on the 16th (my b-day) around 50F . Lows the next day in the low-mid 40s. http://raleighwx.ame...mpsGFSLoop.html Hopefully, its mega fall and not mega fail. Best birthday wishes, in advance. I always wish for chilly temps on my birthday, but it seems that every year we get warmer than average conditions that first week of Oct, although in 1979 we had a surprise snow storm in Warren County (14 inches) on Oct 10. Just 3 days too late, but it's as close as I'll ever come again to snow on my b-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 This is great! I grow a crop of hot peppers and my plants are stuffed with unripe peppers. Tropical rains followed with crisp fall air = mega harvest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 climo > models at 7-8 days...it won't get that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 climo > models at 7-8 days...it won't get that cold Maybe, maybe not. It shows 40's at night here in Southern VA. In september that's not that rare. Especially the later in September we go. Now the daytime highs are abnormally low. But I think its possible. Considering with the previous cool down that never made it to the coast..the places that did experience that cool down didn't make it out of the 50's up north and didn't get out of the 60's in the south. We can't write the strength of the airmass off YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 climo > models at 7-8 days...it won't get that cold As much as that is usually true, the ensembles nailed the recent cold in the Southeast at this range, and they have the Mid-Atlantic in the cold next week. Given the recent shift in the pattern (cold East as record highs were recorded in the West), next week's cold isn't far-fetched at all. Parts of Mississippi and Louisiana got into the 40s earlier this week, so 40s here doesn't seem that unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 As much as that is usually true, the ensembles nailed the recent cold in the Southeast at this range, and they have the Mid-Atlantic in the cold next week. Given the recent shift in the pattern (cold East as record highs were recorded in the West), next week's cold isn't far-fetched at all. Parts of Mississippi and Louisiana got into the 40s earlier this week, so 40s here doesn't seem that unreasonable. Like I said above. lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 climo > models at 7-8 days...it won't get that cold 40s during the month of September have been hard to come by in recent years. And there has been a rather substantial decrease in the total number of September days below 50 in the last 8-10 years. At RIC, for example, the last September to feature at least one day below 50 was in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I recorded 4 nights with lows in the 40's last September, including a 46 on 9/6 after being in the upper 90's on 9/1-3, and hit 96 again on the 7th. Other nights were the 11th, 18th and 21st, so not too early for those temps in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Given that we already recorded a 49F low on Aug 30 here, 40's for lows next week seems quite attainable. However, if this next cool down doesn't materialize, it wouldn't be the first time. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Zwyts wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 NWS is really downplaying the WINDS associated with this shot of cold advection NNW gusts to 45 mph not out of the question Seems NWS has a phobia about mentioning strong winds on the forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 NWS is really downplaying the WINDS associated with this shot of cold advection NNW gusts to 45 mph not out of the question Seems NWS has a phobia about mentioning strong winds on the forecasts Why do you say that? It's september, wavelengths are short, hard for deep baroclinic/cold core pressure deepening at this lattitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 We have a 70 percent chance of rain. Hmmm Can someone fill me in as to why it is clear outside? I mean, I really don't mind being missed by these thundershowers - we have had more than our share of rain lately, and I DO want to be missed by these so-called thunderstorms - but why is there still a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms in Dale City's weather forecast tonight? Just askin' Models need calibrating, I'd say, and some of those forecasters need replacing stat. You got a job - You'd better perform or pound pavement like so many Americans out trying to find a job these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 We have a 70 percent chance of rain. Hmmm Can someone fill me in as to why it is clear outside? I mean, I really don't mind being missed by these thundershowers - we have had more than our share of rain lately, and I DO want to be missed by these so-called thunderstorms - but why is there still a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms in Dale City's weather forecast tonight? Just askin' Models need calibrating, I'd say Because it will most likely rain in your backyard, give it about 4hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 We have a 70 percent chance of rain. Hmmm Can someone fill me in as to why it is clear outside? I mean, I really don't mind being missed by these thundershowers - we have had more than our share of rain lately, and I DO want to be missed by these so-called thunderstorms - but why is there still a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms in Dale City's weather forecast tonight? Just askin' Models need calibrating, I'd say, and some of those forecasters need replacing stat. You got a job - You'd better perform or pound pavement like so many Americans out trying to find a job these days This post really added alot to a thread about an end of the week cool down, ( not to mention that it would have been a bad post in any other thread as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Not much love from LWX..."lows around 50". 6z GFS has 4 days straight of lows in the 40s, for at least everyone outside of the urban centers. And low-mid 40s at that most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 12, 2011 Author Share Posted September 12, 2011 DCA could struggle to get below 50, but I don't see why other areas wouldn't get below 50 at least once. The raw ensemble numbers have a consensus in the mid/upper 40s for lows in the DCA/IAD/BWI region on the 17th and 18th (Sat-Sun). Ensembles also saying that 40s are possible Friday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 My forecast has 40s for lows in my location Thursday through Sunday. Not all that unusual here this time of year. Looking back I recorded 7 lows below 50 last year in September, most of them in the first half including two in the first week. In 2009 though were only 2 on the last two days of the month. What I'm looking forward to is the first blustery day that stays in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 NWS has highs of 64 here for Friday and Sat. While I sure hope that verifies, I have a hard time believing in high temps that are 12 - 13 degrees below avg with sunny skies. IDK if I'm buying it. Oddly, the lows are forcast as 48 and 49 degrees. That doesn't seem nearly cold enough if highs are in low to mid 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 NWS has highs of 64 here for Friday and Sat. While I sure hope that verifies, I have a hard time believing in high temps that are 12 - 13 degrees below avg with sunny skies. IDK if I'm buying it. Oddly, the lows are forcast as 48 and 49 degrees. That doesn't seem nearly cold enough if highs are in low to mid 60's. Not to mention the fact that KOKV seems to have their thermometer sitting in a skillet in the middle of an asphalt runway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Not to mention the fact that KOKV seems to have their thermometer sitting in a skillet in the middle of an asphalt runway. Where is KOKV? Winchester. I should've known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.