dan11295 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 We getting some kind of consensus finally that this will be pulled to the NE eventually? Maybe it will move fast enough to keep flooding issues down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I have spent many years in the N.O. area of Louisiana. They have flooding problems very easily just from daily thunderstorms. 10+ inches of rain is going to be a very big problem. The pumps will likely not keep up with the amount of rain that will be falling. This is a very concerning problem and I anticipate this system to cause major flooding problems for the city. I have seen the city flood with much less than 10 inches before, this could be very ugly.... 18z NAM Just through 72 hours. 15 to 20 inches of rain for parts of southern Louisiana. Biblical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 18Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 So no 5 pm EDT upgrade, I guess? Maybe 11 pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 It looks like we have a rather sharp wind shift. Just perhaps enough to close this off... 000 URNT15 KWBC 012130 NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 32 20110901 212030 2613N 09116W 9591 00440 0077 +258 +226 189008 008 022 000 00 212100 2614N 09117W 9587 00443 0077 +258 +228 185007 008 021 000 00 212130 2615N 09119W 9588 00442 0077 +257 +230 184007 007 020 000 00 212200 2616N 09121W 9589 00442 0077 +258 +230 172007 008 020 000 00 212230 2617N 09122W 9587 00445 0078 +258 +234 164005 005 019 000 00 212300 2618N 09124W 9589 00443 0079 +257 +230 145005 005 018 000 00 212330 2619N 09126W 9588 00443 0080 +255 +232 154005 006 018 000 00 212400 2620N 09127W 9589 00445 0080 +257 +227 153005 006 016 001 00 212430 2621N 09129W 9589 00445 0081 +256 +233 154005 006 017 000 00 212500 2622N 09131W 9589 00445 0080 +256 +230 161003 004 017 000 00 212530 2622N 09132W 9589 00443 0079 +260 +220 190002 003 017 000 00 212600 2623N 09134W 9589 00443 0079 +261 +219 003002 003 017 000 00 212630 2624N 09135W 9588 00443 0078 +260 +219 006002 003 018 000 00 212700 2625N 09137W 9588 00442 0078 +260 +221 350004 004 018 000 00 212730 2626N 09139W 9589 00442 0077 +261 +220 339005 006 017 000 00 212800 2627N 09140W 9589 00440 0076 +257 +225 332006 006 019 000 00 212830 2628N 09142W 9588 00441 0077 +254 +232 341006 007 021 000 00 212900 2628N 09144W 9589 00442 0078 +255 +231 345006 007 021 000 00 212930 2629N 09145W 9588 00442 0077 +254 +236 341007 007 019 000 00 213000 2630N 09147W 9588 00441 0076 +254 +236 342006 006 019 000 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 So no 5 pm EDT upgrade, I guess? Maybe 11 pm? Eh, its just so disorganized right now.... I think tomorrow is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 So no 5 pm EDT upgrade, I guess? Maybe 11 pm? I think there is a well defined enough circulation for the upgrade to TD... I think they are just waiting for the NOAA plane to finish sampling the storm to make sure they have pinpointed the center location, so we should see a special advisory at some point before 11pm. At this point the NOAA-P3 seems to have pinpointed a center near 26.4N and 91.5W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I think there is a well defined enough circulation for the upgrade to TD... I think they are just waiting for the NOAA plane to finish sampling the storm to make sure they have pinpointed the center location, so we should see a special advisory at some point before 11pm. At this point the NOAA-P3 seems to have pinpointed a center near 26.4N and 91.5W Ugh-- totally W of all the convection. This is not the Mona Lisa of developing Gulf cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Ugh-- totally W of all the convection. This is not the Mona Lisa of developing Gulf cyclones. Adam has been harping all along that this would have a "Monsoonal" type of genesis with a very poorly organized center. Its uncanny how this system currently resembles Frances 1998. Frances (1998) Invest 93L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Tropical Depression 13 forms BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al132011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109012228 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 22:30Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Mission Purpose: Investigate seventh suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 12 A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 22:01Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°25'N 91°33'W (26.4167N 91.55W) B. Center Fix Location: 262 miles (422 km) to the SSW (200°) from New Orleans, LA, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 324° at 7kts (From the NW at ~ 8.1mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WSW (246°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 458m (1,503ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 460m (1,509ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25°C (77°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 30°C (86°F) L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:42Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 1,500 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Adam has been harping all along that this would have a "Monsoonal" type of genesis with a very poorly organized center. Its uncanny how this system currently resembles Frances 1998. It's uncanny how it resembles scrambled eggs. Think we'll get an 8 pm EDT advisory-- or need to wait until 11 pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 It's uncanny how it resembles scrambled eggs. Think we'll get an 8 pm EDT advisory-- or need to wait until 11 pm? well vortex message confirms it along with the ftp site updated, we should see an advisory by 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 They forecast slow strengthening to 50 kt by landfall Saturday afternoon on the C LA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 They forecast slow strengthening to 50 kt by landfall Saturday afternoon on the C LA coast. sounds about right... just not enough time to really get going despite the SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 sounds about right... just not enough time to really get going despite the SSTs. Two days would be enough time to hit Cat 1 or even greater if it weren't such a hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Two days would be enough time to hit Cat 1 or even greater if it weren't such a hot mess. exactly... the fact that its so loosely organized and being sheared currently doesn't leave much chance for rapid intensification. If it could manage to hang around in the gulf beyond 72 hours, that might change, but most of the models seem to be converging on the slow NE motion beyond landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 This "hot mess" just warranted Louisiana to declare a state of emergency. They are taking no chances Looking at the 00z HPC 5 day QPF map, that's a good thing to issue at this time. 24" of rain. http://www.hpc.ncep....qpf/p120i00.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Looking at the 00z HPC 5 day QPF map, that's a good thing to issue at this time. 24" of rain. http://www.hpc.ncep....qpf/p120i00.gif That's up from the earlier forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 That's up from the earlier forecast. That's the highest qpf map I've ever seen (on the US mainland) put out by the HPC!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 That's the highest qpf map I've ever seen (on the US mainland) put out by the HPC!! holy moly. Two feet of rain?! Unimaginable on such low lying areas or anywhere else. That is some high end aggressive modeling for what is a incredibly tough forecast for machine or man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 That's up from the earlier forecast. I have never seen a >15" QPF blob like this before, this is going to be really impressive and historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Sounds like Arlene levels of flooding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Would the effects of this in New Orleans be very bad? Or just a disturbance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Would the effects of this in New Orleans be very bad? Or just a disturbance? Thundersnow posted this in another thread. from LIXALONG WITH HIGH POPS. PW VALUES RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO FLOODING WILL BE CONCERN...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USN Ben Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Would the effects of this in New Orleans be very bad? Or just a disturbance? 2 feet of rain into a below sea level soup bowl would certainly not be ideal for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 2 feet of rain into a below sea level soup bowl would certainly not be ideal for them. Ok, on a scale of 0(just some small minor flooding )-10 (Katrina) around where would this most likely fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Ok, on a scale of 0(just some small minor flooding )-10 (Katrina) around where would this most likely fall. No matter how much rain falls you can't compare it to catastrophic levy failures. It will be bad enough. A lot will depend on rain rates and whether the improved pumps can keep up. Of course if the electric power to the pumps goes out things will get worse in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Having grown up in SE Louisiana, I am worried about my friends and family with this one. There is going to be a long period of long fetched east wind that is going to pile up water east of the Mississippi river delta. Tidal flooding outside of the levee system will be bad enough, but most worrisome of all is at a certain tidal level, the pumps can not dump water out of the city. With these insane rainfall totals showing up, things could get dicey to say the least. East wind is already near TS strength at the mouth of the river, http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=pstl1 Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts Wind Gust (GST): 40.0 kts Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.90 in Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.6 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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