calculus1 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 CAD is looking strong for Friday. Here are the temps for Friday afternoon from this morning's 06Z GFS run. Major difference east and west of the Apps, and these are the max temps over this time period: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 CAE.... LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG SURFACE WEDGE FLOW WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT...BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TO HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO OVERRUNNING FLOW...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG WEDGELIKE FLOW CONTINUING. COASTAL TROUGH MAY SETUP ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE FLOW BACK TOWARDS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 CAD is looking strong for Friday. Here are the temps for Friday afternoon from this morning's 06Z GFS run. Major difference east and west of the Apps, and these are the max temps over this time period: Too bad we haven't been able to get these cad events to occur in the winter, in what seems like forever. Still, it will certainly be nice and will no doubt further make me crave fall/winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Oh man it shows my county in the upper 50's low 60's and this would be such a welcome relief.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Too bad we haven't been able to get these cad events to occur in the winter, in what seems like forever. Still, it will certainly be nice and will no doubt further make me crave fall/winter. As we used to say in PA, what the fall does, the winter will remember. Fall patterns have a knack for setting up shop into the winter, especially storm tracks. Have hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Too bad we haven't been able to get these cad events to occur in the winter, in what seems like forever. Still, it will certainly be nice and will no doubt further make me crave fall/winter. thats a big time DITTO!! mby has had a couple of very minor events since the last 'real' one - dec 2005! i would love a good, old fashion cad event this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 CAD is looking strong for Friday. Here are the temps for Friday afternoon from this morning's 06Z GFS run. Major difference east and west of the Apps, and these are the max temps over this time period: I bet big money that the CAD impacts more areas than that. What I see there is a CAD signature not really the exact areas that will get in on it. I think Georgia is going to have much cooler temperatures in the mountains and even down into Atlanta possibly. The GFS shows some stiff East winds, I can't see those winds and the CAD translating into 70's even if we are in September. Maybe it's the weenie in me, but I think the CAD will be larger in coverage than what is shown there. 99 times out 100 when CAD develops it ends up impacting the Atlanta area and the Northeast parts of Georgia. I wonder if FFC will handle CAD events better this year or if it will be the same old bust like they usually do with temps during CAD events. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT SINKING FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FRIDAY AND A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGING INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT BY FRIDAY EVENING THE RIDGE WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL INTO THE CWA PUSHING THE TSTORMS SOUTH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG COOL RIDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR TOO WARM FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN AND WILL THEREFORE KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. FFC is calling it Ridging and not CAD. They also acknowledge that temps are modeled too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 This damming event will be MAJOR, one for the Record Books here in the Carolinas, especially in NC and lower VA, where the light rain/drizzle will enhance it, and keep the temps down. The GFS looks very reasonable now, and has got rid of the odd heavier rains, now showing much more likely drizzle/light rain, over the wedge, and a strong 1032 high wedging down sharply. Remember, models usually under-do damming in classic CAD, however, GFS has proved, as recently as mid July, it can handle it if the CAD is truly legit, so I think its numbers look pretty close. Its shockingly cold for September for Hickory , Charlotte and Greensboro, where average highs are low 80s...so going into the upper 40's Friday afternoon is going to be truly amazing for this time of year. Folks are going to be stunned, especially looking at the media outlets here in my market where the forecast highs I'm still seeing are still being forecast anywhere from 60's to 70's....this could be an enormous bust. The GFS is showing the max will be early Friday in the damming region (a midnight high) and down from there, into the upper 40's by 18z Friday. Again, its dependent on rain and drizzle...without it, temps would be a little warmer, but still a very impressive CAD event regardless. To have temperatures around 35 degrees below normal is extremely rare, any season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 This damming event will be MAJOR, one for the Record Books here in the Carolinas, especially in NC and lower VA, where the light rain/drizzle will enhance it, and keep the temps down. The GFS looks very reasonable now, and has got rid of the odd heavier rains, now showing much more likely drizzle/light rain, over the wedge, and a strong 1032 high wedging down sharply. Remember, models usually under-do damming in classic CAD, however, GFS has proved, as recently as mid July, it can handle it if the CAD is truly legit, so I think its numbers look pretty close. Its shockingly cold for September for Hickory , Charlotte and Greensboro, where average highs are low 80s...so going into the upper 40's Friday afternoon is going to be truly amazing for this time of year. Folks are going to be stunned, especially looking at the media outlets here in my market where the forecast highs I'm still seeing are still being forecast anywhere from 60's to 70's....this could be an enormous bust. The GFS is showing the max will be early Friday in the damming region (a midnight high) and down from there, into the upper 40's by 18z Friday. Again, its dependent on rain and drizzle...without it, temps would be a little warmer, but still a very impressive CAD event regardless. To have temperatures around 35 degrees below normal is extremely rare, any season. Can't wait! even if the GFS busts I will be happy as long has it is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 This damming event will be MAJOR, one for the Record Books here in the Carolinas, especially in NC and lower VA, where the light rain/drizzle will enhance it, and keep the temps down. The GFS looks very reasonable now, and has got rid of the odd heavier rains, now showing much more likely drizzle/light rain, over the wedge, and a strong 1032 high wedging down sharply. Remember, models usually under-do damming in classic CAD, however, GFS has proved, as recently as mid July, it can handle it if the CAD is truly legit, so I think its numbers look pretty close. Its shockingly cold for September for Hickory , Charlotte and Greensboro, where average highs are low 80s...so going into the upper 40's Friday afternoon is going to be truly amazing for this time of year. Folks are going to be stunned, especially looking at the media outlets here in my market where the forecast highs I'm still seeing are still being forecast anywhere from 60's to 70's....this could be an enormous bust. The GFS is showing the max will be early Friday in the damming region (a midnight high) and down from there, into the upper 40's by 18z Friday. Again, its dependent on rain and drizzle...without it, temps would be a little warmer, but still a very impressive CAD event regardless. To have temperatures around 35 degrees below normal is extremely rare, any season. Nice writeup Robert, I have a question. What do you think about the GFS showing temps in the 70's for north Georgia during this event? Everything in my body is telling me this is way overdone and low 60's to even upper 50's(maybe lower...) fit much better than the 70's advertised. Am I being a weenie or do you think there is a chance that Atlanta area gets much cooler than advertised? If this is truly a strong CAD then Atlanta will have no problem cashing in but the 70's just don't fit imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Nice writeup Robert, I have a question. What do you think about the GFS showing temps in the 70's for north Georgia during this event? Everything in my body is telling me this is way overdone and low 60's to even upper 50's(maybe lower...) fit much better than the 70's advertised. Am I being a weenie or do you think there is a chance that Atlanta area gets much cooler than advertised? If this is truly a strong CAD then Atlanta will have no problem cashing in but the 70's just don't fit imo. I think that given that temps. will be dropping throughout Friday, it makes more sense to look at the min. temps for Friday afternoon than max., since max. is capturing what they would be at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Nice writeup Robert, I have a question. What do you think about the GFS showing temps in the 70's for north Georgia during this event? Everything in my body is telling me this is way overdone and low 60's to even upper 50's(maybe lower...) fit much better than the 70's advertised. Am I being a weenie or do you think there is a chance that Atlanta area gets much cooler than advertised? If this is truly a strong CAD then Atlanta will have no problem cashing in but the 70's just don't fit imo. No way. You'll have your high early Friday and then downhill with a low cloud deck and drizzle developing, and the northeast winds ushering in the falling temps through the afternoon. I'm not sure what Atlantas temp will be to start early Friday, but this run of the GFS clearly shows it falling to lower 60s by Friday afternoon and then upper 50's by Friday night. The further north and east of Atlanta, the colder, but the damming will certainly stretch to Atlanta with no problem. Its classic CAD, and I can't remember the last classic cad. If the rain were more widespread and heavier, the models may be too high on temps still, but I have doubts on anything other than light rain and drizzle at this point and the GFS looks reasonable. The coldest, relative to normals, look like western and central NC, south VA. where some areas will be 30 to 40 degrees below normal. Amazing CAD event, imo. I'd like to see another one of this relative magnitude in the Winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 No way. You'll have your high early Friday and then downhill with a low cloud deck and drizzle developing, and the northeast winds ushering in the falling temps through the afternoon. I'm not sure what Atlantas temp will be to start early Friday, but this run of the GFS clearly shows it falling to lower 60s by Friday afternoon and then upper 50's by Friday night. The further north and east of Atlanta, the colder, but the damming will certainly stretch to Atlanta with no problem. Its classic CAD, and I can't remember the last classic cad. If the rain were more widespread and heavier, the models may be too high on temps still, but I have doubts on anything other than light rain and drizzle at this point and the GFS looks reasonable. The coldest, relative to normals, look like western and central NC, south VA. where some areas will be 30 to 40 degrees below normal. Amazing CAD event, imo. I'd like to see another one of this relative magnitude in the Winter months. Thanks Robert. I think I may be reading the IPS meteostar page incorrectly. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGE I knew the GFS was showing a classic CAD for my area due to the stiff east winds and rising surface pressures. Glad to see the maps you posted are very clear unlike the IPS Meteostar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 CAD is looking strong for Friday. Here are the temps for Friday afternoon from this morning's 06Z GFS run. Major difference east and west of the Apps, and these are the max temps over this time period: That's me down there at the point of the 60's spear. I love how the mountains align is such a way as to bring that Atlantic drizzle and cold ne wind right over ya'll, and down on me. Hard to beat a strong cad. And they'll often go right on into central Ala. too...the strong ones. During the best one last year I was out facing ne enjoying the wind, and my pup was with me, and I looked down at her to see her ears were sticking out like wings and flapping, lol. Got to love good cold cad winds!! 84.3 here now...don't see 90 happening today...it was hotter at this time yesterday, and only made a little over 86. Nice sig. by the way. That guy must be one smart dude T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 That's me down there at the point of the 60's spear. I love how the mountains align is such a way as to bring that Atlantic drizzle and cold ne wind right over ya'll, and down on me. Hard to beat a strong cad. And they'll often go right on into central Ala. too...the strong ones. During the best one last year I was out facing ne enjoying the wind, and my pup was with me, and I looked down at her to see her ears were sticking out like wings and flapping, lol. Got to love good cold cad winds!! 84.3 here now...don't see 90 happening today...it was hotter at this time yesterday, and only made a little over 86. Nice sig. by the way. That guy must be one smart dude T The CAD will likely be an over performer for you Tony. The high is nicely situated and I won't be suprised to see it push west into eastern Alabama. On the edges of CAD sometimes models are the most off on temps, usually being too warm. I think Sat. is your colder day. Plus, decent rains. Can't be that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Robert...to help you understand how much I want some cold..imagine I want this cad the way you've wanted rain the last few years, lol! Here's hoping I can see the upper 40's. It's gonna be flannel shirt time in Tonytown.!!! But first, I'm facing one more showdown with 90. I'm at 86.9 at 3:45...tomorrow might be worse. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Robert...to help you understand how much I want some cold..imagine I want this cad the way you've wanted rain the last few years, lol! Here's hoping I can see the upper 40's. It's gonna be flannel shirt time in Tonytown.!!! But first, I'm facing one more showdown with 90. I'm at 86.9 at 3:45...tomorrow might be worse. T well I don't think the 40's make it that far southwest yet, but still mid to upper 50's is very doable. And I'm sure you'll beat me in the rain dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 77 here in Boone currently. I can't wait for the cool down this weekend; it's going to feel great out there tailgating before the App game. Hopefully I'll be posting pics of the first snow in about 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 This weekend will be awesome. The weather in general here the last week has been great. Fall is really great in NC, probably the best season of all as far as comfort goes (though winter is still my favorite season due to SNOW!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Raleigh doesn't seem to be too impressed. SEVERAL DETAILS DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE ARE UNCLEAR. WHILE A CADWEDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT INDICATIONSARE THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK GIVEN THE REDUCED AMOUNT OFPRECIPITATION AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ITS DEMISE BY SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 This is reminicient of the October 15-19, 2009 period in central North Carolina, which featured a day where the high was 52 at RDU, which was a record low maximum. Except, that was in mid October, whereas this Cold Snap will occur in mid September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Had a high of 84.2 at my house today after a low of 58. There calling for 90 tomorrow but they have been overdoing the highs here lately. I bet 86. Im looking forward to a nice cool saturday to pick some early persimmons and watch some football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Had a high of 84.2 at my house today after a low of 58. There calling for 90 tomorrow but they have been overdoing the highs here lately. I bet 86. Im looking forward to a nice cool saturday to pick some early persimmons and watch some football. I think Atlanta will flirt with 90 tomorrow but most areas will stay in the 80s. I know the heat island has a big impact on night time temps but even during the day Atlanta seems to be a couple degrees warmer than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 FFC WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRECIP AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. NEAR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTA AREA WEDNESDAY...AND ASSUMING KATL REACHES THE 90 DEGREE MARK...THE RECORD FOR THE MOST NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IN A SINGLE SUMMER COULD BE TIED. THE PREVIOUS RECORD IS 90 DAYS HELD IN 1980. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE DIFFERED LITTLE. DIFFERENCES MORE EVIDENT BEGINNING WITH THURSDAY HIGHS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WEEKEND WEDGE. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE MADE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM...AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON PAR. MODELS IN COULD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTH GEORGIA FRIDAY...AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO BUILD DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS. WITH STRONG WEDGE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY WEEK...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK TO BE TOO WARM...AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. we may set the record tomorrow in Atlanta. Also funny how FFC says it's a strong wedge and Raleigh goes with the weak route. Glad to see FFC saying that progged temps are too high. I think I'll take FFC on this one as they are in agreement with Robert's analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 FFC we may set the record tomorrow in Atlanta. Also funny how FFC says it's a strong wedge and Raleigh goes with the weak route. Glad to see FFC saying that progged temps are too high. I think I'll take FFC on this one as they are in agreement with Robert's analysis. Atlanta can't break the record tomorrow. They can only tie it. FFC was wrong when they said they said the record for a single "summer" could be tied. They should have said year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Raleigh doesn't seem to be too impressed. SEVERAL DETAILS DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE ARE UNCLEAR. WHILE A CADWEDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT INDICATIONSARE THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK GIVEN THE REDUCED AMOUNT OFPRECIPITATION AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ITS DEMISE BY SUNDAY. GSP similarly not impressed: "We should be in the middle of a cold air damming event as the medium range begins. The problem will be when to end it. Although The Wedge might be relatively weak...the model guidance does not hold much in the way of destructive force as we go through the weekend." I wonder what sort of guidance it would take for them to consider a wedge event a strong one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 GSP similarly not impressed: "We should be in the middle of a cold air damming event as the medium range begins. The problem will be when to end it. Although The Wedge might be relatively weak...the model guidance does not hold much in the way of destructive force as we go through the weekend." I wonder what sort of guidance it would take for them to consider a wedge event a strong one... CAE stays with strong .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ASTRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WEEXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHTHURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITHINCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDSFROM THE NORTH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNTFOR WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A TREMENDOUS TEMPERATURE DROP ISANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHTEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY BUT ONLY THE 70S ON FRIDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 This will be interesting weather if this occurs. If the min verifies, and there's upper 60s down to Charleston during the daytime, that will be important. It may not go this far south, but it will be big to have days 10 or more degrees below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 I hit 90.1F today (5:26pm), this first time since the 3rd that I've hit 90. http://www.daculaweather.com/dacula_wxtempdetail.php I can't wait for cooler weather, 90 is way too hot for me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 I hit 90.1F today (5:26pm), this first time since the 3rd that I've hit 90. http://www.daculaweather.com/dacula_wxtempdetail.php I can't wait for cooler weather, 90 is way too hot for me at this point. Wow, I only hit 85 today under full sunshine. I wonder why such a difference in temps ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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