NortheastPAWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Watch this trend too far to our west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Straight up the Chesapeake into eastern PA as a Cat 1 hurricane...Philly gets destroyed by it. Yeah I just saw a picture the center goes right over Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Watch this trend too far to our west now. At this point fine by me. Sorry for double post on my iPod can't multi quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GHM takes it up the Chessy almost to Lancaster. Guess I did the old jinx by posting a 'forecast' so early in the game. Bracing for the worst here in Cape May and hunkering down. Can't leave the house even with evacs...gathering storm preparedness items tomorrow, boarding the windows, and removing all lawn furniture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I got more uncomfortable in my chair when I looked at the 00z GFS 925 mb winds. Thank god the error at day 3 is 100 miles or so...that's what I'm hoping (wishing) for...want this to go east 100 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Straight up the Chesapeake into eastern PA as a Cat 1 hurricane...Philly gets destroyed by it. At least for Philly the core of winds at 925 mb on the ECMWF is to their east, basically the Delaware and New Jersey coasts get racked by 70-80 knots of wind at 925 mb. I am not liking this!! I like the CMC better as it is farther off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Thank god the error at day 3 is 100 miles or so...that's what I'm hoping (wishing) for...want this to go east 100 at this point. Yeah really. Shove this thing east!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 At least for Philly the core of winds at 925 mb on the ECMWF is to their east, basically the Delaware and New Jersey coasts get racked by 70-80 knots of wind at 925 mb. I am not liking this!! I like the CMC better as it is farther off the coast. Perhaps it's me but it seems the GFS is arguably a worse scenario than the EC...while the EC track sucks Irene will have tracked over land for a good 12-18 hours and would probably weaken a fair bit. The Shore still gets nailed with strongest winds but locally it would be sustained 40-50 in Philly at worse, perhaps? It's not "good" by any stretch but at least you have 12-18 hours inland working against the storm. GFS looks like an absolute pillaging at the Shore and for the DE Beaches...and Philly would be in a prime spot for heavy rainfall. GFS is almost worst case scenario locally for what a storm could do track wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Not liking what I'm seeing in the modeling... that's all I have to contribute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ugh... This is what I woke up to this am? Hoping for east shifting on today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ugh... This is what I woke up to this am? Hoping for east shifting on today's runs. I know. I don't like the 06z GFS. Gives 5-6" for the Lehigh Valley. I guess that's somewhat better than Jersey, where it's widespread 7-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Was reading up on hurricanes that produced wind/damage in E PA and came up with, among others, Hazel (1954) and David (1979). Both of those tracked well west of the Delaware. Different trajectories for sure, but enough for me to want this one to scrape by to the east. Thankfully these solutions are still on the western edge of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like possible major flooding and further south the OBX could be changing landscape.But,we have many more miles to go on this thing. Guessing that rate of error is at least 150 miles at this point. You know that 12z models will cause a stir in the solutions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like possible major flooding and further south the OBX could be changing landscape.But,we have many more miles to go on this thing. Guessing that rate of error is at least 150 miles at this point. You know that 12z models will cause a stir in the solutions.. The 12z runs will have all the 06z RAOB data ingested into them. I like the fact that they specifically asked Montana NWS to sample. That shortwave must be the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Was reading up on hurricanes that produced wind/damage in E PA and came up with, among others, Hazel (1954) and David (1979). Both of those tracked well west of the Delaware. Different trajectories for sure, but enough for me to want this one to scrape by to the east. Thankfully these solutions are still on the western edge of the guidance. I'm sure you also hit on Floyd and Gloria-Irene looks like a blend of these-for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I have a friend in Bethany Beach Delaware. Should i tell them to stay, or end their vacation and come home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm sure you also hit on Floyd and Gloria-Irene looks like a blend of these-for now... Well, yeah, but this morning I'm focusing in on the inland progs of the Euro and GFDL. Not saying they're right, but I think it's prudent to telegraph the impacts associated with any solution within the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I have a friend in Bethany Beach Delaware. Should i tell them to stay, or end their vacation and come home? They should probably end their vacay tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well, yeah, but this morning I'm focusing in on the inland progs of the Euro and GFDL. Not saying they're right, but I think it's prudent to telegraph the impacts associated with any solution within the spread. You want the eyewall to come over your house. Jus' kiddin' of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I am now pretty sure its time for us that are close to Philly and also those in DE and NJ to be fully prepared for long term power outages like days or weeks? Or am I kinda taking it out of context? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 They should probably end their vacay tomorrow. I would suggest today, so they dont deal with the massive movement of people trying to get out of the shore-points, other wise tomorrow its gonna be grid-lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I live in Berks county...but I will be getting my generator in the mail today...along with my shipment of chem lights and candles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 They should probably end their vacay tomorrow. Thank youi I told them yesterday they should probably leave by lunch time Saturday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just woke up and looked at the models...this could be one of the worst tropical systems ever in the Lehigh Valley if the consensus verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 move east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I am now pretty sure its time for us that are close to Philly and also those in DE and NJ to be fully prepared for long term power outages like days or weeks? Or am I kinda taking it out of context? Not at all. There may not be enough crews to handle the work. Also depends on where you live. Mains and metro areas have priority. Could easily be 2-3 days for many..if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Good morning all.....wow the Euro dropping Irene over PHL is something. Still see the NAM, GFS and Canadian have her at of just of the Jersey shore Sunday. Regardless, looks light a major mess on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm not afraid to admit that I am scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm not afraid to admit that I am scared. You are pretty far inland and if you don't live near a creek you will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Repercussions of the ECMWF track for the Delaware Valley are going to be quite severe considering the area has received 8-13" rain over the last three weeks, flooding and power outtages due to down trees. I have concern about losing power for an extensive period of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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