phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I wouldn't hang my hat on any of the global models at this point. Wouldn't it make more sense to follow the actual hurricane guidance (models) which trended a good bit East from their 0Z and 6Z runs?? Serious question. Btw, I am living in Cape May at the moment and our home away from home until next Wednesday. Town Bank to be exact. Anyone interested in 'chasing' and needs a place to crash, inbox me. Peace. Hurricane models above 20 N aren't as good...they lose effectiveness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 not good at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The NAM has been all over the place with Irene. It hasn't shown any trends. I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM came back east 100 miles at 0z. The NAM is awful with tropical systems in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 not good at all Oh shi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 not good at all See there is the one part of me that wants to see and experience this....the naive and stupid side. Then there is the other side of me that DOES NOT want to see it because it will be great to watch right up until you see how much damage would be caused. Idk if im the only one that feels that way prob not but I would assume this is the opinion of most weather lovers. If that happens......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 not good at all perhaps a silly question, but that graphic includes tomorrow's storms as well as Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 not good at all The 1944 hurricane precip map earlier in this thread by Grothar is very close to this prog. Similar track and strength as well. Edit: I agree with someone who said that they'll be a sharp cutoff to the west between Altn and Harrisburg. Harrisburg may not get much from Irene itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 perhaps a silly question, but that graphic includes tomorrow's storms as well as Irene? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 if you were wondering what the nam would of looked like post 84 hrs.. I am surprised that someone hasn't posted the Japanese model yet. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I feel for those flood prone areas along Rte 611 that got smashed in the last several years with flooding..when was that, 2005? I am glad I live up on a hill. If the track is similar to the Euro, I am curious how high the winds will get in the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm worried about Wayne. Last Sunday we had bad flooding all over the town. I don't even want to think about another 5 or 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Guys, if you want to see the wind info from the Euro: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap Toggle models, select Euro, and wind, and enjoy (or cringe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 so far hwrf is coming in a good bit west 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z gfs has sustained winds for phl of 30-35 higher gusts obv.. acy is 45-50 sustained with higher gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looking at the euro....if those times were valid for 6-7 days from now would be entertaining....a bit closer in they are sobering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looking at the euro....if those times were valid for 6-7 days from now would be entertaining....a bit closer in they are sobering. Yeah and if this were winter the west trending would have everyone going ballistic with excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z hwrf came west, just a little east of the euros track now 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm worried about Wayne. Last Sunday we had bad flooding all over the town. I don't even want to think about another 5 or 6 inches IF the Euro is right everyone should be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 IF the Euro is right everyone should be worried. Big if* lol Not sold on anything yet... If I see the same tomorrow, I'll start getting excited* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Euro is incredible with heavy rains back here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Euro is incredible with heavy rains back here.. I actually believe the 81 corridor might be near the screw zone where the tight gradient is located like we had for one of last year's winter storms. They'll be a subsidence zone like it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Big run tonight. If tonight's 0z's continue the westward trend, it should raise serious concerns all around the tri-state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 another nam out of range prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I actually believe the 81 corridor might be near the screw zone where the tight gradient is located like we had for one all of last year's winter storms. They'll be a subsidence zone like it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ahh... so put the boards on the inside. Sneaky. EXACTLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 18z gfdl, west 18z hwrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Big run tonight. If tonight's 0z's continue the westward trend, it should raise serious concerns all around the tri-state. I sense with the 18z runs that the models are steadying the western motion. This seems to be modeled just like a winter storm to me. The models go right, right, right, and then correct left, left, and just before the end go back a little to the right. I think we see the final track just to the right of the Euro and skimming the coast of Jersey to a hit on LI. A compromise between the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I just got a call from Radnor Township at my home telling people to start preparing for Irene. Never had anything like that happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Voyager, I know. I was trying to be nice. That one storm though was the ultimate screw job for you guys. As the storm got closer, the back edge shrunk back toward the center. That's a punch to the nuts right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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