Parsley Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 imho, i think this thing misses us to the point we get some rain but not much. I think e li and sne are under the gun.The models are continuing to pick up on the trough being deeper. This will only escape so far east though do to the expanding ridge in the atl. Its just rare to see the track the euro shows from a storm that scrapes the banks then bends nnw into our region. Climo would favor a bend ots or over ack, we shall see. Agreed, based on the trends the past 2 days. A Hurricane Bob-like track wouldn't shock me.Basing things alot on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Very interesting discussion from the HPC this afternoon... ...AFTERNOON FINALS... PROG PRODUCTION AND PMDEPD INTERUPTED BY EAST COAST EARTHQUAKE AND BUILDING EVACUATION. IRENE TRACK ADJUSTED TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/FORECAST. LATEST AFTN GLOBAL MODEL BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION TRACK WITH RIGHT MODELS CMC/GFS COMING LEFT AND ECMWF/UKMET COMING RIGHT. NHC TRACK SHIFTED EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME THIS HAS ALL THE LOOK OF A VERY DEEP DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY TO THAT OF THE GREAT HURRICANE OF 1944. SEE NHC FORECAST/WATCHS/WARNINGS ALONG WITH NWS LOCAL OFFICE WARNINGS/STATEMENTS. From the main thread. Bad track for our area and points N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 From the main thread. Bad track for our area and points N This is not good for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Mt.Holly: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ***SEVERE/FF POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND A POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOLLOWED BY IRENES TBD IMPACTS SUNDAY*** KEEPING THIS RELATIVELY SHORT AND TO THE POINT. THURSDAY...SCATTERED MID LVL SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE IN THE MORNING BUT THOSE SHOULD DRY OUT AT THE EXPENSE OF COLD FRONTAL ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVENING. BLENDED NCEP POP GUIDANCE. ALL THE MODEL MOS AND 2M TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD BY 5F AND RAISED THOSE GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR A +18C 850 SW FLOW SCENARIO. TT SHOULD BE IN THE 48-52 RANGE WITH 30-40 KT BULK SHEAR. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FF ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR WHERE GRIDDED FFG IS LOW /BUT DRYING OUT FOR ANOTHER DAY TIL THURSDAY/. FRIDAY...PROBABLY A SHORT INTERLUDE IN THE MORNING BUT THE PWAT AND KI GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND READY TO EDGE NWWD. 12Z/23 GFS MEX POPS BLENDED WITH HPC GUIDANCE. FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY EVENING...UKMET IS WELL E OF ITS PREVIOUS INLAND TRACK AND THE 12Z/23 EC HAS EDGED EAST...MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z/23 GFS/GGEM OP. NO MATTER...IF IRENE GOES ALONG AS PREDICTED INTENSITY AND AND CENTROID TRACK...AM EXPECTING A PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST NW OF AN INVERTED TROF...SE FLOW TO THE I95 CORRIDOR WITH LIGHT NELY FLOW IN E PA. THE PRE PPT IS ON-LINE. IN ESSENCE A STRENGTHENING RRQ OF THE UPPER LVL JET WILL ASSIST SE INFLOW/IRENE LEAKAGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR WELL TO THE NW OF IRENE IN A SORT OF BANDING SCENARIO THAT SHOULD PERMIT MID LVL INSTABILITY TO YIELD POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WHERE THIS WILL BE...PRESUMING IRENE REMAINS ON THE 21Z FCST TRACK...MY ESTIMATE THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN 30 MI OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. AN EVENT LIKE THIS COULD EASILY PRODUCE FF/FLOOD POTENTIAL RFALL OF 5 INCHES OR MORE. AGAIN...JUST DONT KNOW WHERE AND MUST HAVE A HURRICANE TRACK SIMILAR CLOSE THAT OF 21Z/23. THEREAFTER...NHC TCM WINDS/PWS ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE BACKGROUND WINDS OF THE GFS MEX AND THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL IRENE IS BELOW TCM WIND/PWS THRESHOLD POTENTIAL. PLEASE NOTE...AT LEAST TODAY THERE WILL BE STANDARD 330PM AND 330AM ISSUANCE`S WITH A NECESSARY APPROXIMATELY 515 PM/AM RE-ISSUANCE TO INCORPORATE NHC TCM WINDS AND PROBS. SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...FAR TOO EARLY TO BE SURE OF IRENE AND ITS IMPACTS. PLEASE MONITOR NHC FORECASTS AND THE PHI BACKGROUND INFORMATION. THIS 330 PM FCST CUTOFF THE TROP CONDITION PHRASING AT 12Z DUE TO GUIDELINES. THIS WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY BY THE 530 PM UPDATE AS THE DAY 5 NHC FCST EXTENDS FURTHER INTO SUNDAY. THE RISKS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING...ARE A GLANCING BLOW TO THAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS..TREES DOWN ON SATURATED GROUND...FF RAINS /ESPECIALLY AUGUST STORM TOTAL 10+ INCH RAIN AREAS SO FAR TO DATE AND URBAN CENTERS/ HIGH SEAS AND ASSOCIATED TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE. WE JUST DONT KNOW AND SO FOR NOW...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ALTER THEIR WEEKEND PLANS FOR MORE SAFE ALTERNATIVES. ECMWF HAS A LARGE AREA OF 6 INCH RFALL IN E PA....LESSER TO THE EAST. IF IRENE FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK AND INTENSITY AS FCST AT 21Z TODAY...WATCH THE BACKSIDE PRES RISE-FALL COUPLET AND TRANSFER OF OF VERY STRONG 975-950 WINDS TO THE SFC. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Man, mt. Holly means business. Can't blame them. Gonna be in overdrive till next Monday with 3 threats . Storms/ff on Thursday, fri night-sat rains and then the immediate impacts from irene. Good luck fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Man, mt. Holly means business. Can't blame them. Gonna be in overdrive till next Monday with 3 threats . Storms/ff on Thursday, fri night-sat rains and then the immediate impacts from irene. Good luck fellas! Agreed, it was enthralling to read and somewhat sobering considering the potential impacts. The flooding concern is obvious, but like they discuss, the winds and resultant downed trees will be the real story. As always, the track is critical. Most of SNJ is hosed if we get prolonged periods of >=TS force winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Man, mt. Holly means business. Can't blame them. Gonna be in overdrive till next Monday with 3 threats . Storms/ff on Thursday, fri night-sat rains and then the immediate impacts from irene. Good luck fellas! You guys getting ready? We've got 2 pumps coming from the County just in case this rocks us. We're not gonna get caught with our pants down again with the lakes/river, like happened with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Agreed, it was enthralling to read and somewhat sobering considering the potential impacts. The flooding concern is obvious, but like they discuss, the winds and resultant downed trees will be the real story. As always, the track is critical. Most of SNJ is hosed if we get prolonged periods of >=TS force winds... Gloria brought down many trees, I spent many 14 hr days putting Verizon drop wires back up. When Floyd came through they sent me to N Jersey because of flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 12z euro is the worse case scenario possible...lamdfall is delaware bay/cape may , nj sub 965 i cant count the isobars so it may be lower...worse case track that can happen...just one run though...dumps 5-8 inches of rain from jerz shore to harrisburg. Hasn't this model been rock solid? I also read, from other sources that will go unnamed (not JB), say that euro is the best model in the world when it comes to this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Agreed, based on the trends the past 2 days. A Hurricane Bob-like track wouldn't shock me.Basing things alot on climo. Yeah...maybe Gloria track if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 First post in a while here. But genuinely getting worried about the effects of Irene here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah...maybe Gloria track if the GFS is right. Being on central LI for both Gloria and Bob, much different impacts were felt. Amazing the difference being on the west side of the center (Bob) compared to the east (Gloria). Bob dropped several inches of rain, but no loss of power. Gloria knocked out power for over a week and also was a little stronger when it passed. Since its been 25+ years since Gloria, it just goes to show how hard (and how overdue) the East Coast is for a hurricance to hit the Jersey Shore and/or NYC. With that in mind, that recent history has me hedging my bets east on a landfall. -- Did Bob have any impact here in SE PA in 91'? I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 From the main thread. Bad track for our area and points N Any track that's close to the coast with a large storm isn't going to be good. You don't want this to come inland and up I-95 though...that's even worse for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Did Bob have any impact here in SE PA in 91'? I doubt it. http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPHL/1991/8/19/DailyHistory.html PHL had some t-storms in the evening that inflated the rain total for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Regardless, and whatever it's called these days.. I feel like the public needs to know. Don't worry...the hype machine will kick in tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Don't worry...the hype machine will kick in tomorrow. If it hadn't been for the earthquake, it would have been today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hasn't this model been rock solid? I also read, from other sources that will go unnamed (not JB), say that euro is the best model in the world when it comes to this stuff. in general its the best model in the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 im not sure if you can use the gfs ens mean in this, but everyone of them are east of the op..the euro ens were east of the op also taking it on a gloria track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If it hadn't been for the earthquake, it would have been today. Yeah...I would agree with that. im not sure if you can use the gfs ens mean in this, but everyone of them are east of the op..the euro ens were east of the op also taking it on a gloria track. That doesn't surprise me (they do that with the winter storms as well more often than not...not sure if that applies on tropical stuff as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z hwrf now taes a track like the gfs, 12z was inalnd towards phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DerekZ Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The 18z GFDL (posted in the model thread on the main forum) would be potentially catastrophic for our area: Shows a 950 mb storm tracking straight up Chesapeake Bay. Philadelphia would be on the east side of the storm for the strongest winds. Plus surge up Delaware Bay driven by strong southeast winds would break tidal flooding records along the Delaware River. That doesn't even get into rainfall, and if we got 5"+ areawide we would have some serious flooding problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z hwrf now taes a track like the gfs, 12z was inalnd towards phl I think the models are starting to nail down a track. Something like Outer Banks to E LI/SNE is the overall consensus. Probably sparing us the heavier winds/rain, but surf should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah...maybe Gloria track if the GFS is right. Gloria track for context of the discussion/comparison. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gloria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I would not park my car under any large trees this weekend, with the frontal passage on Thursday and Irene combined it will probably only take 45 mph gust to topple many trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 From the main thread. Bad track for our area and points N Well thats funny the HPC references the Hurricane of 1944 because Sept 5th 1944 was also the largest earthquake in New York history. Magnitude 5.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Latest GFS has most of the precip offshore. Seems each model run moves things east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Latest GFS has most of the precip offshore. Seems each model run moves things east. Euro took a 12z GFS track (shift east for Euro as well) Think we're going to dodge a bit of a bullet here...might have some heavy rain on Saturday evening/night but the worst of it is going to be at the coast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Euro took a 12z GFS track (shift east for Euro as well) Think we're going to dodge a bit of a bullet here...might have some heavy rain on Saturday evening/night but the worst of it is going to be at the coast at this point. The models have performed horribly so far with Irene. Possibly the worst tropical performance I've ever seen. A hit from New Orleans to Mobile to Pensacola to Tampa to miami to Savannah to Charleston to Myrtle Beach to Wilmington to Morehead City to Hatteras to NYC/LI to ...... That's about a 1500 mile error within seven days on nearly ALL models. That said, I'm glad it's out to sea. Didn't need the extra rain and the timing for me personally was bad. Edit: I will add that once the G-IV data was ingested into the models, the writing was on the wall. I hope they do more of that on future events that may impact the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know many want a hit but I'd rather see this east shift continue. Hate to see tons of damage to homes / businesses / beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know many want a hit but I'd rather see this east shift continue. Hate to see tons of damage to homes / businesses / beaches. trends are our friends (for those who want a miss that is) I am not shocked at all waking up this morning and seeing the NHC with a track east of NC and Long Island. There is a reason why a place like Long Island hasn't been hit hard by a Hurricane in just over 25 years. It doesn't happen easily based on the upper air pattern in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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