Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 OMG OMG!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like a cell popping up a little west, south west of Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like a cell popping up a little west, south west of Boston... Yeah some strikes down by PVD and over to PYM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Wow SVR on that cell? So tiny too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Wow SVR on that cell? So tiny too. Eastern Mass may be the spot as you suggested earlier...probably still to early to tell, but I hope we get some action... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Wow SVR on that cell? So tiny too. Good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Good call No I was just surprised it was warned, but it looked like it had a good core. Pulsed down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 No I was just surprised it was warned, but it looked like it had a good core. Pulsed down now. Meant for the seabreeze storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 LOL..that sucks...weddings blow..esp ones I don't want to go to At least it's not on a football Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Sunday afternoon is about as impressive in the soundings as any event this year, including June 1. Strong 70kt mid level jet punches in around the base of the trough PA/NY and punches into western zones by mid afternoon, with llv SW flow of theta-rich air, and strong diabatic heating earlier in the day. 500mb temperatures are down to -12C, which isn't extreme, but supports between moderate to severe updraft velocities for parcel rich risers. Large hail and possible tornadoes in the back-winded valleys of western Mass, CT, with linear segment straight line wind in momentum transfers combined with negative CAPE production elsewhere all look good to me. Large hail with those mid lvl temps as well. SBCAPE may approach 3,000 in a band from NW NJ to SE NJ around 2pm; at that time, a broken line with segmented severe and possible meso's embedded should be entering western zones on the nose of said jet. This situation perhaps lacks the same triggering device in that baroclinicity is not as impressive as June 1, but the timing of shear/diabatic heating and CAPE production are super-imposed similarly. Not sure of the EML look but I'm going to be evaluating that shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Sunday afternoon is about as impressive in the soundings as any event this year, including June 1. Strong 70kt mid level jet punches in around the base of the trough PA/NY and punches into western zones by mid afternoon, with llv SW flow of theta-rich air, and strong diabatic heating earlier in the day. 500mb temperatures are down to -12C, which isn't extreme, but supports between moderate to severe updraft velocities for parcel rich risers. Large hail and possible tornadoes in the back-winded valleys of western Mass, CT, with linear segment straight line wind in momentum transfers combined with negative CAPE production elsewhere all look good to me. Large hail with those mid lvl temps as well. SBCAPE may approach 3,000 in a band from NW NJ to SE NJ around 2pm; at that time, a broken line with segmented severe and possible meso's embedded should be entering western zones on the nose of said jet. This situation perhaps lacks the same triggering device in that baroclinicity is not as impressive as June 1, but the timing of shear/diabatic heating and CAPE production are super-imposed similarly. Not sure of the EML look but I'm going to be evaluating that shortly. I don't think the soundings I've seen look anywhere close to June 1. The GFS had 3000 j/kg of CAPE with 0-3km helicity >250 m2/s2. I don't see anything close to that with mid level lapse rates a meager 6 c/km as opposed to 7.5-8.5 c/km on June 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Cell blowing up right behind my place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Weird mini downpours in Dorchester on the way home. You go from big puddles to dry pavement in about 100 yds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Models totally unimpressive with instability tomorrow. NAM gets interesting 00-06z in W CT but when has that ever worked out for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Models totally unimpressive with instability tomorrow. NAM gets interesting 00-06z in W CT but when has that ever worked out for us? Something to be said about the generous QPF that all models have though. Maybe something where we have a line rip through NY state, weaken and then more regenerate overnight with better jet dynamics accompanied by strong s/w and height falls?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Something to be said about the generous QPF that all models have though. Maybe something where we have a line rip through NY state, weaken and then more regenerate overnight with better jet dynamics accompanied by strong s/w and height falls?? I think the dynamics are definitely there for storms/heavy rain... getting big svr with a line moving in after dark is never easy... especially without an EML and big dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I think the dynamics are definitely there for storms/heavy rain... getting big svr with a line moving in after dark is never easy... especially without an EML and big dews. I'm just hoping for some good rumblers overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The models are all fairly cloudy through the day tomorrow so it's unclear just how unstable we will get. If we can actually clear things out and lapse rates don't become even less impressive watch out. Shear is quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Any good winds Sunday evening/overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like a mostly cloudy day with some showers and thunderstorms in the evening and overnight. Probably some heavy rain, and strong winds. We have a good large scale lift mechanism with the trough moving in. Combined with decent low and mid level moisture and not much of a cap will yield widespread cloudiness, and showers moving in by the late afternoon = most forecast sounding are pretty much moist adiabatic through the column by the evening ... skinny CAPE profile. The trough is still relatively broad, with the vortex hanging up over James Bay. So one, most of the cold mid level air is held back to the northwest. Two, we end up with a strung out low at the surface, so low level winds aren't backed a great deal from the mid levels. Hodographs are definitely respectable from 0-1km, but not so much above 1km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 maybe ill see 2 tornadoes in a year!! jk but im thinking about going down to wherever future irene hits.. im on vacation for 2 weeks after tomorrow so im thinking about doing something fun The models are all fairly cloudy through the day tomorrow so it's unclear just how unstable we will get. If we can actually clear things out and lapse rates don't become even less impressive watch out. Shear is quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 18z runs pretty unimpressive and they're also backing off on the shear/strength of LLJ. Looks pretty blah to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 18z runs pretty unimpressive and they're also backing off on the shear/strength of LLJ. Looks pretty blah to be honest. Good news, lots of outdoor stuff going on tomorrow and I'd hate to have the fun interupted by T-storms/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 18z runs pretty unimpressive and they're also backing off on the shear/strength of LLJ. Looks pretty blah to be honest. Thank goodness, the damage to those lives affected is what really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Thank goodness, the damage to those lives affected is what really matters. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 lol Ryan--are you thinking it might be a 'no go'? I'd like it if at least we could keep getting some more rain even if we don't get any thunder. 69.6/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Ryan--are you thinking it might be a 'no go'? I'd like it if at least we could keep getting some more rain even if we don't get any thunder. 69.6/61 Yeah I'm not excited for big svr. I do think we get rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Horrific widespread damage tomorrow...can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Horrific widespread damage tomorrow...can't wait. think of all the tree damage. this is our planet you are talking about. how could you? THINK OF THE TREES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. I think this threat extends up into western Mass and much of CT, as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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