weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Paul--mby question. How are things shaping up for the NW corner of Mass? We've seen most activity in the SW corner so far this year. New forecast has upped the ante on pop to 70% today/90% tonight. It's always extremely difficult pinpointing down convection to a specific location or small area but NW MA is in the threat area for severe storms; the numbers are about as good there as anywhere else as far as instability/shear is concerned. 12z NAM coming in and actually it doesn't look all too bad...although it is on the weak side with the ML lapse rates it definitely isn't showing any issues with instability or shear. Actually it developes the strongest helicity values right in western/central MA and CT...east of where the SPC has the 5% TOR risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wonder if we see the 5% TOR contour extended eastward a bit with the new day 1 at 1630z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wonder if we see the 5% TOR contour extended eastward a bit with the new day 1 at 1630z. x10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Numerous mile-wide EF-5 tornadoes likely today, developing in a continuous line from the Canadian border to the Gulf coast. You should all just evacuate now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Numerous mile-wide EF-5 tornadoes likely today, developing in a continuous line from the Canadian border to the Gulf coast. You should all just evacuate now Nah, just Tolland CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Fail or not, you have to like the wind fields tonight. Elevated CAPE should be there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Fail or not, you have to like the wind fields tonight. Elevated CAPE should be there as well. Didn't see the 12z models... but I did notice even sb instability by 3z in S CT given warm SSTs and lack of a capping inversion. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Nah, just Tolland CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Sterling VA AFD for me.. WOWWWWW .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK SHRTWV TROF THIS MRNG INITIATED CNVCTN IN THE BALTIMORE AREA. THESE TSTMS CONTAINED HVY RAIN AND MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS...BUT LKLY WERE ELEVATED. RECOVERY IS XPCD IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE AND AHEAD OF THE STRONG TROF THAT WILL IMPACT THE RGN EARLY THIS AFTN. CNVCTN OVER WV WILL CONT TO MOVE EWD THIS MRNG. WITH HEATING OF VERY MOIST AMS OVER FCST AREA...THIS CLUSTER OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO INCRGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. UPSWING IN INTENSITY AND CVRG OF CNVCTN XPCD BY EARLY AFTN AS SFC TROF SHARPENS AND AMS CONTS TO DESTABILIZE. MODIFIED KIAD 12Z SOUNDING CONTAINS 3000 J/KG CAPE WITH MEAGER INHIBITION. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCRS AHEAD OF APRCHG TROF AND MID-LVL JET NEARS...CNVCTN SHUD BLOSSOM EASILY. AS DP-LYR SHEAR INCRS...UPDRAFTS SHUD BCM INCRGLY ORGANIZED...FAVORING BOTH CELLULAR AND LINEAR MODES. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINEAR STRUCTURES CAN BE XPCD. SGFNT SVR WIND EVENT WILL BE PSBL AS WET DOWNBURSTS COULD REACH VELOCITIES IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH SPCLY E OF BLUE RDG MTNS. DRY LYR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO WILL ENHANCE A HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE POTENT UPDRAFTS XPCD. LOW-LVL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTN IN INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF APRCHG TROF AXIS. ALL MODELS INDICATE DVLPMT OF WEAK SFC LOPRES ALONG THE LEE TROF AXIS...WHICH WILL FURTHER BROADEN THE LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS. WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM MRNG CNVCTN AND FAVORABLE LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE PSBL IN THE MOST INTENSE TSTMS...SPCLY IN NERN MD. ALTHOUGH TSTMS WILL BE MOVG QUICKLY...THE MOST SGFNT RAINFALL IS XPCD IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY SVRL ROUNDS OF RECENT INTENSE TSTMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW. FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE. CDFNT WILL MOVE ACRS RGN THIS EVE AND LKLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHWRS AND TSTMS. SVR WX THREAT WITH THESE TSTMS MAY BE LESSER OWING TO WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM THIS AFTN. BUT IT CANNOT BE SAID WITH CONFIDENCE THAT A SECOND ROUND OF SVR WX IS NOT PSBL THIS EVE. RAPID DECR IN PCPN XPCD BEHIND THE CDFNT...BUT CLD CVR MAY LINGER THRU MUCH OF TNGT. LOW LVLS WILL DRY OUT AS CDFNT CROSSES...WHICH MAY HELP MINIMA TO FALL LWR THAN THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT IN SUCH CLDY CONDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Numerous mile-wide EF-5 tornadoes likely today, developing in a continuous line from the Canadian border to the Gulf coast. You should all just evacuate now And going off the coast as EF-5 waterspouts sucking the Lobsters off the sea bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Line firing west of ALB now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Fail or not, you have to like the wind fields tonight. Elevated CAPE should be there as well. There'll definitely be a couple hour window for some solid winds. I'm still not all that impressed if we're looking for anything more than some isolated damaging winds, and generally run-of-the-mill gusts everywhere else. At least storms could continue to be surface based, with high dps and no cap, which will help mix down some of the strongest winds. I think the main threat is flooding. These forecast soundings are close to moist adiabatic and unstable throughout the column. Otherwise, I'm not as impressed with the wind threat as everyone else, and wb0 heights are too high for a good hail threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 There'll definitely be a couple hour window for some solid winds. I'm still not all that impressed if we're looking for anything more than some isolated damaging winds, and generally run-of-the-mill gusts everywhere else. At least storms could continue to be surface based, with high dps and no cap, which will help mix down some of the strongest winds. I think the main threat is flooding. These forecast soundings are close to moist adiabatic and unstable throughout the column. Otherwise, I'm not as impressed with the wind threat as everyone else, and wb0 heights are too high for a good hail threat. Well I'm not necessarily expecting widespread winds, just the wind field aloft looks impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 x10 Certainly plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Up to 2500 J/KG of SBcape across CT with MLcape at 1500 J/KG, MUcape at 2000 J/KG, and LI values at -6C to -7C! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 are you chasing today? Up to 2500 J/KG of SBcape across CT with MLcape at 1500 J/KG, MUcape at 2000 J/KG, and LI values at -6C to -7C! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 are you chasing today? Possibly. Might be going with NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 nice goodluck! Possibly. Might be going with NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 sun been out all morning here good things to come this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 nice goodluck! Hopefully some good stuff can blow through! Were certainly unstable enough...right now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 11 AM obs should be coming in soon...10 AM obs had temps already into the lower 80's with dews near 70F and south winds just under 10 mph in many locations. sfc winds continue to increase as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 11 AM obs should be coming in soon...10 AM obs had temps already into the lower 80's with dews near 70F and south winds just under 10 mph in many locations. sfc winds continue to increase as well. You mean 12pm obs? it's 11:54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Up to 2500 J/KG of SBcape across CT with MLcape at 1500 J/KG, MUcape at 2000 J/KG, and LI values at -6C to -7C! Same numbers here to your southwest. Some small popups in the area. 77/71 http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 You mean 12pm obs? it's 11:54 Yup...my mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 MCD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Why does it post like that? All cluttered up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 MCD I was wondering when they would put one up. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN VA...THE DELMARVA...SRN AND ERN PA...NJ...INTO THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 211554Z - 211800Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE ONE OR MORE WATCHES DURING THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW TURNING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE SLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN BROAD POCKETS...COMPLICATING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR STILL SOMEWHAT MODEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT DOES APPEAR ONE AREA OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE/WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS COULD SUPPORT INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/ SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS IS DIMINISHING...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG TOWARD THE 18-20Z. THEREAFTER...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS...APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE AREAS FROM THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE THREAT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...OR REMAIN RELATIVELY LOCALIZED ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..KERR.. 08/21/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 looks like no TOR watch for wizzy based on that MCD. I really am not sure what to make of the svr threat today. There's definitely been more sun than I expected... even from 10z this morning. Instability and shear look good but I'm still pretty hesitant to pull the trigger on a big event given some of the negatives still floating around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 How did you get that to post w/o it being all cluttered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 looks like no TOR watch for wizzy based on that MCD. I really am not sure what to make of the svr threat today. There's definitely been more sun than I expected... even from 10z this morning. Instability and shear look good but I'm still pretty hesitant to pull the trigger on a big event given some of the negatives still floating around. What are you concerned about the most as far as negatives go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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