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Sunday/Monday AM storm threat


free_man

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Sunday afternoon is about as impressive in the soundings as any event this year, including June 1.

Strong 70kt mid level jet punches in around the base of the trough PA/NY and punches into western zones by mid afternoon, with llv SW flow of theta-rich air, and strong diabatic heating earlier in the day. 500mb temperatures are down to -12C, which isn't extreme, but supports between moderate to severe updraft velocities for parcel rich risers.

Large hail and possible tornadoes in the back-winded valleys of western Mass, CT, with linear segment straight line wind in momentum transfers combined with negative CAPE production elsewhere all look good to me. Large hail with those mid lvl temps as well.

SBCAPE may approach 3,000 in a band from NW NJ to SE NJ around 2pm; at that time, a broken line with segmented severe and possible meso's embedded should be entering western zones on the nose of said jet. This situation perhaps lacks the same triggering device in that baroclinicity is not as impressive as June 1, but the timing of shear/diabatic heating and CAPE production are super-imposed similarly. Not sure of the EML look but I'm going to be evaluating that shortly.

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Sunday afternoon is about as impressive in the soundings as any event this year, including June 1.

Strong 70kt mid level jet punches in around the base of the trough PA/NY and punches into western zones by mid afternoon, with llv SW flow of theta-rich air, and strong diabatic heating earlier in the day. 500mb temperatures are down to -12C, which isn't extreme, but supports between moderate to severe updraft velocities for parcel rich risers.

Large hail and possible tornadoes in the back-winded valleys of western Mass, CT, with linear segment straight line wind in momentum transfers combined with negative CAPE production elsewhere all look good to me. Large hail with those mid lvl temps as well.

SBCAPE may approach 3,000 in a band from NW NJ to SE NJ around 2pm; at that time, a broken line with segmented severe and possible meso's embedded should be entering western zones on the nose of said jet. This situation perhaps lacks the same triggering device in that baroclinicity is not as impressive as June 1, but the timing of shear/diabatic heating and CAPE production are super-imposed similarly. Not sure of the EML look but I'm going to be evaluating that shortly.

I don't think the soundings I've seen look anywhere close to June 1. The GFS had 3000 j/kg of CAPE with 0-3km helicity >250 m2/s2. I don't see anything close to that with mid level lapse rates a meager 6 c/km as opposed to 7.5-8.5 c/km on June 1.

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Models totally unimpressive with instability tomorrow. NAM gets interesting 00-06z in W CT but when has that ever worked out for us?

Something to be said about the generous QPF that all models have though. Maybe something where we have a line rip through NY state, weaken and then more regenerate overnight with better jet dynamics accompanied by strong s/w and height falls??

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Something to be said about the generous QPF that all models have though. Maybe something where we have a line rip through NY state, weaken and then more regenerate overnight with better jet dynamics accompanied by strong s/w and height falls??

I think the dynamics are definitely there for storms/heavy rain... getting big svr with a line moving in after dark is never easy... especially without an EML and big dews.

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Looks like a mostly cloudy day with some showers and thunderstorms in the evening and overnight. Probably some heavy rain, and strong winds.

We have a good large scale lift mechanism with the trough moving in. Combined with decent low and mid level moisture and not much of a cap will yield widespread cloudiness, and showers moving in by the late afternoon = most forecast sounding are pretty much moist adiabatic through the column by the evening ... skinny CAPE profile. The trough is still relatively broad, with the vortex hanging up over James Bay. So one, most of the cold mid level air is held back to the northwest. Two, we end up with a strung out low at the surface, so low level winds aren't backed a great deal from the mid levels. Hodographs are definitely respectable from 0-1km, but not so much above 1km.

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maybe ill see 2 tornadoes in a year!! jk hotdog.gif but im thinking about going down to wherever future irene hits.. im on vacation for 2 weeks after tomorrow so im thinking about doing something fun

The models are all fairly cloudy through the day tomorrow so it's unclear just how unstable we will get. If we can actually clear things out and lapse rates don't become even less impressive watch out.

Shear is quite impressive.

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A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY

AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS

WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. IN ADDITION...HEAVY

RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

I think this threat extends up into western Mass and much of CT, as well...

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