VAwxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Well, of course the more S/W solution is going to be more interesting to me-- but not to most of the folks in this thread. It's more interesting to me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Gotcha. Even for five days out, wouldn't that shift-- and the changing strength of the ridge-- fall within the normal model "windshield-wiping"? It seems that if the model is suggesting Hispaniola or just N on successive runs, it's really settling on a solution. What did yesterday's 12Z show? Refresh my memory. (Was it even showing this system then?) The 12Z Euro yesterday was showing something more similar to today's 12Z Euro... develops the system, slams it into Hispaniola, and the redevelops it in the western Caribbean as it heads NW/NNWish into the southern Gulf (versus today's and yesterday's 00Z run which showed an east coast TC threat) Wrt normal windshield wiping, I'm just intrigued at how consistent the windshield wiping is. 12z Euro interesting... Stays weak for awhile and issues with Hispaniola, but really going to town SOUTH of Cuba at 168 now. I noticed that... and that would be a big difference from yesterday's 12Z Euro... now the Euro isn't showing as bad of a disruption from both Hispaniola and the skirting by Guantanamo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 12Z Euro is back to plunging 97L into Hispaniola after taking it just to the north with the 00Z run. I'm really interested in this 00Z north/right, 12Z south/left issue that the Euro seems to be having with this system... I commented on that early this morning. It goes from Gulf/FL to East FL/GA/SC in a cyclic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 rapidly intensifying cane just south of isle of youth at 186 hrs per 12z Euro... main point to this is just that track remains impossible to pin down with any certainty this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 12z Euro interesting... Stays weak for awhile and issues with Hispaniola, but really going to town SOUTH of Cuba at 168 now. Fairly decent agreement with the operationals...if it can form... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Fairly decent agreement with the operationals...if it can form... To that point, not that far off... but after that it's more diff... Euro wants to go "Gulfing" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It's more interesting to me too The 12Z Euro yesterday was showing something more similar to today's 12Z Euro... develops the system, slams it into Hispaniola, and the redevelops it in the western Caribbean as it heads NW/NNWish into the southern Gulf (versus today's and yesterday's 00Z run which showed an east coast TC threat) Wrt normal windshield wiping, I'm just intrigued at how consistent the windshield wiping is. OK, gotcha. Yeah, it is weird how rigidly consistent the models have been with this. rapidly intensifying cane just south of isle of youth at 186 hrs per 12z Euro... Hawt. To that point, not that far off... but after that it's more diff... Euro wants to go "Gulfing" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 GFS spaghettios have something for everyone. Except South Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 So, basically, we have two model camps: Camp #1: 0Z Euro, GFS... a more righward track, possible east coast threat Camp #2: 12Z Euro, GFS ensemble mean, Euro ensemble mean, CMC: a more leftward track, possible Caribbean and Gulf threat Based on history and this season's model trends, I'd have to place my bets with Camp #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 240 hr euro right in middle of Gulf.... shown as a potent cane prolly heading for somewhere from MSY to the middle of the FL panhandle if rolled forward from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Good Bye N. O. hello 5 dollar........oh, nevermind: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 So, basically, we have two model camps: Camp #1: 0Z Euro, GFS... a more righward track, possible east coast threat Camp #2: 12Z Euro, GFS ensemble mean, Euro ensemble mean, CMC: a more leftward track, possible Caribbean and Gulf threat Based on history and this season's model trends, I'd have to place my bets with Camp #2. Option 2, please, for $20. 240 hr euro right in middle of Gulf.... shown as a potent cane prolly heading for somewhere from MSY to the middle of the FL panhandle if rolled forward from there. That region-- NE Gulf Coast-- has been hit frequently in the last 15 or so years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 So, basically, we have two model camps: Camp #1: 0Z Euro, GFS... a more righward track, possible east coast threat Camp #2: 12Z Euro, GFS ensemble mean, Euro ensemble mean, CMC: a more leftward track, possible Caribbean and Gulf threat Based on history and this season's model trends, I'd have to place my bets with Camp #2. I'll go with Camp #3, nothing of great significance develops to track. Torn-up Island hopper, maybe a TS or low-end 'cane that effects most of the islands. Rare, but it has been a while and that area is due for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Holy crapola. 12z Euro Loop http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Anyone else having a hard time buying this system staying together and re-organizing into a major cane if it indeed were to go directly over Hispanolia and it's mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Holy crapola. 12z Euro Loop http://raleighwx.ame...rtSLP_loop.html Next run might be into MX at this rate. Anyway, not to beat a dead horse but the main thing here is that nobody is losing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Anyone else having a hard time buying this system staying together and re-organizing into a major cane if it indeed were to go directly over Hispanolia and it's mountains? It is totally possible. While Hispanola would definitely cause significant weakening it isn't too hard for storms to regenerate after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPVT0844 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I work down on the eastern Island of Puerto Rico (Vieques) and was wondering what are the chances that I make it there on Sunday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The land interaction or lack thereof seems to be affecting the model paths after 120 hours. Interesting that models that have the storm missing Haiti (0z Euro, 12Z CMC), pull the vorticity up the east side of Florida. Those that go through Haiti (12Z GFS and Euro) seem to stall or split the energy and drive it further west. Not sure if this is from the land interaction physics or perhaps the land interaction weakens the storm enough to cause it to go with the west flow like the BAM shallow shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Anyone else having a hard time buying this system staying together and re-organizing into a major cane if it indeed were to go directly over Hispanolia and it's mountains? It's not impossible. Georges in 1998, although not a major hurricane, did make a good recovery from Hispaniola. Next run might be into MX at this rate. Anyway, not to beat a dead horse but the main thing here is that nobody is losing it. You should pay attention to the model trends over more than just two runs. The land interaction or lack thereof seems to be affecting the model paths after 120 hours. Interesting that models that have the storm missing Haiti (0z Euro, 12Z CMC), pull the vorticity up the east side of Florida. Those that go through Haiti (12Z GFS and Euro) seem to stall or split the energy and drive it further west. Not sure if this is from the land interaction physics or perhaps the land interaction weakens the storm enough to cause it to go with the west flow like the BAM shallow shows. Not really... the prior ones you mentioned have a much weaker ridge, whereas the latter ones have a much stronger ridge. It's not really Hispaniola causing the storm to go much further left moreso than the fact that there is a more powerful ridge in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I work down on the eastern Island of Puerto Rico (Vieques) and was wondering what are the chances that I make it there on Sunday afternoon? Pretty good, IMO....unless you are getting there by row boat..... At the modeled speed (which has been fairly consistent between models and runs) the worst impacts would occur (if any) Sun night into Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Holy crapola. 12z Euro Loop http://raleighwx.ame...rtSLP_loop.html three named systems in next ten days according to that, and the second one comes close to Bermuda, with the third one being a big fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 three named systems in next ten days according to that, and the second one comes close to Bermuda, with the third one being a big fish. Will be interesting to see how things unfold the next several weeks. We are getting into the heart of cape verde season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Not really... the prior ones you mentioned have a much weaker ridge, whereas the latter ones have a much stronger ridge. It's not really Hispaniola causing the storm to go much further left moreso than the fact that there is a more powerful ridge in place. Yeah, most likely, but I did notice that today's 12Z does a weird vortex split and pause when it is over Haiti at hour 120, which is what led me to think the models might be struggling with the land interaction. There was a similar vortex elongation at 144 hours on the 0Z, but that run made the northern vortex the dominant one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Also, the BAM shallow and medium differ quite a bit at that same point (Haiti), with the medium diving the storm southwest, while the Bam deep, which misses Haiti, chugs the system along into the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 For those interested, here are my latest thoughts http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/tropics-may-about-to-heat-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 For those interested, here are my latest thoughts http://www.examiner....bout-to-heat-up Great write-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Anyone else having a hard time buying this system staying together and re-organizing into a major cane if it indeed were to go directly over Hispanolia and it's mountains? I'm with you asking the same question, could something like the 12z GFS happen?? I know they can intensify rapidly but it traverses all of Cuba for quite awhile and explodes once it hits the warm waters after. Not the best tropical forecaster here so learning from some of you guys. That 12z Euro loop is very impressive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 There's good agreement from the Canadian, American, and European models of where Invest 97 will be in 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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