Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Getting a little more concerned with the leftward GFS trend, hopefully it can stay clear of the Major Antilles. We have had enough of that from Fay. Thankfully the Euro oddly enough is more to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Its gonna be a fun next 10 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Its gonna be a fun next 10 days! As long as it isn't a direct hit on my location, I'm cool with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Its gonna be a fun next 10 days! I did not expect to awake to such madness. Mabye this will become the long-feared Georgia Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Yeah... the fact that the 06Z GFS takes it over Hispaniola with little to no effect on the system is a bit concerning. How does that even happen? I was pretty sure that terrain is a common element in computing the GFS... With respect to the Euro... it's extremely interesting that today's 00Z run switched back to yesterday's 00Z run, and yesterday's 12Z run was more similar to the day before's 12Z run. If today's 12Z run switches back to yesterday's 12Z run... clearly there is some sort of strange diurnal effect being plugged into the model that should be compensated for. Regardless, when looking at the ensembles overall from both, it seems we are starting to get a clearer picture of the future threat from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 WHXX01 KWBC 181512 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1512 UTC THU AUG 18 2011 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110818 1200 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 110818 1200 110819 0000 110819 1200 110820 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 13.5N 37.9W 14.0N 40.8W 14.6N 44.6W 15.7N 49.0W BAMD 13.5N 37.9W 14.1N 40.9W 14.8N 44.4W 15.6N 48.0W BAMM 13.5N 37.9W 14.1N 40.8W 14.9N 44.5W 16.0N 48.7W LBAR 13.5N 37.9W 14.0N 40.6W 14.7N 43.7W 15.8N 46.8W SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 110820 1200 110821 1200 110822 1200 110823 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 16.7N 53.8W 18.9N 62.9W 19.9N 70.6W 19.4N 76.2W BAMD 16.4N 51.6W 18.4N 58.3W 20.2N 63.1W 22.0N 66.6W BAMM 17.1N 53.1W 19.3N 61.5W 20.7N 68.8W 20.8N 74.6W LBAR 16.6N 50.1W 18.1N 56.2W 18.9N 60.9W 18.1N 53.6W SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 77KTS 80KTS DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 77KTS 80KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 35.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 33.5W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Wow, the SHIPS intensity model makes this a hurricane at 60W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I did not expect to awake to such madness. Mabye this will become the long-feared Georgia Hurricane. As long as it doesn't tear up Savannah, I'm good. Send it straight NW from there and have it stop over my house. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Wow, the SHIPS intensity model makes this a hurricane at 60W. That's based entirely on the difference between the forecast intensity and the MPI, which is only applicable to storms with an inner core. Check out the 700-500mb RH values and you'll see why it will take 3-5 days to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 GFS has been consistently nailing PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 [/url]Wxrisk.com 954 MB!!! cat 3... and it track thrugh central NC and eastern VA into lowerr MD eastern shower ACCORDING TO THE MODEL DATA9 minutes ago · LikeUnlike Not sure if this is from the GFS or not though.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This run has it dancing with every landmass it can find along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Right thru Hispanola at hour 120: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Going all Fay now... come on. Thankfully this is still several days away.. troubling trend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Going all Fay now... come on. Thankfully this is still several days away.. troubling trend though. I'm happy the euro takes this north of the islands. Wasted potential if this runs through the DR/Haiti and Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm happy the euro takes this north of the islands. Wasted potential if this runs through the DR/Haiti and Cuba. Like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Going all Fay now... come on. Thankfully this is still several days away.. troubling trend though. Wouldn't it be a good trend for the storm to be disrupted so it doesn't turn into something nasty causing damage stateside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Actually I am intrigued by the Westward shift of the operational GFS. The ensembles have suggested Cuba may well be in the 'cards' and that trend is what catches my eye. We still have a long time to watch and see if 97L is a player or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Wouldn't it be a good trend for the storm to be disrupted so it doesn't turn into something nasty causing damage stateside? for most people, yes.. here, not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Florida Keys hour 204: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 for most people, yes.. here, not so much Well, if we are attaching a "moral" angle to it, then no, since we in the US can handle a major better than Haiti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 There seems to be some run to run timining differences especially once the system clears FL. On some GFS runs there is high pressure parked over northern New England and this sytem dumps very heavy rain up almost the entire coast. If you take the 12z track verbatim, I don't see how the circulation isn't completely disrupted after hitting land mass after landmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Well, if we are attaching a "moral" angle to it, then no, since we in the US can handle a major better than Haiti no moral angle from me.. can't control the weather. still, more people here root for a big 'cane then the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Florida Keys hour 204: Charley hook into SW FL edit - and then a 95 special right to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Charley hook into SW FL Looks like a Tampa hit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 no moral angle from me.. can't control the weather. still, more people here root for a big 'cane then the general public. I think the only people rooting for a big 'cane harder than the weather weenie boards are the media outlets (and JB). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This thing is over water for like three frames and it never loses strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Charley hook into SW FL edit - and then a 95 special right to Boston Does it bring wind all the way up 95 to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The GFS has a US landfall 14 runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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