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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Yeah... the fact that the 06Z GFS takes it over Hispaniola with little to no effect on the system is a bit concerning. How does that even happen? I was pretty sure that terrain is a common element in computing the GFS...

With respect to the Euro... it's extremely interesting that today's 00Z run switched back to yesterday's 00Z run, and yesterday's 12Z run was more similar to the day before's 12Z run. If today's 12Z run switches back to yesterday's 12Z run... clearly there is some sort of strange diurnal effect being plugged into the model that should be compensated for.

Regardless, when looking at the ensembles overall from both, it seems we are starting to get a clearer picture of the future threat from this system.

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WHXX01 KWBC 181512

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1512 UTC THU AUG 18 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110818 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110818 1200 110819 0000 110819 1200 110820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 37.9W 14.0N 40.8W 14.6N 44.6W 15.7N 49.0W

BAMD 13.5N 37.9W 14.1N 40.9W 14.8N 44.4W 15.6N 48.0W

BAMM 13.5N 37.9W 14.1N 40.8W 14.9N 44.5W 16.0N 48.7W

LBAR 13.5N 37.9W 14.0N 40.6W 14.7N 43.7W 15.8N 46.8W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110820 1200 110821 1200 110822 1200 110823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.7N 53.8W 18.9N 62.9W 19.9N 70.6W 19.4N 76.2W

BAMD 16.4N 51.6W 18.4N 58.3W 20.2N 63.1W 22.0N 66.6W

BAMM 17.1N 53.1W 19.3N 61.5W 20.7N 68.8W 20.8N 74.6W

LBAR 16.6N 50.1W 18.1N 56.2W 18.9N 60.9W 18.1N 53.6W

SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 77KTS 80KTS

DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 77KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 35.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 33.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

NNNN

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Wow, the SHIPS intensity model makes this a hurricane at 60W.

That's based entirely on the difference between the forecast intensity and the MPI, which is only applicable to storms with an inner core. Check out the 700-500mb RH values and you'll see why it will take 3-5 days to develop.

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Going all Fay now... come on. Thankfully this is still several days away.. troubling trend though.

Wouldn't it be a good trend for the storm to be disrupted so it doesn't turn into something nasty causing damage stateside?

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Actually I am intrigued by the Westward shift of the operational GFS. The ensembles have suggested Cuba may well be in the 'cards' and that trend is what catches my eye. We still have a long time to watch and see if 97L is a player or not.

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There seems to be some run to run timining differences especially once the system clears FL. On some GFS runs there is high pressure parked over northern New England and this sytem dumps very heavy rain up almost the entire coast. If you take the 12z track verbatim, I don't see how the circulation isn't completely disrupted after hitting land mass after landmass.

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Well, if we are attaching a "moral" angle to it, then no, since we in the US can handle a major better than Haiti

no moral angle from me.. can't control the weather. still, more people here root for a big 'cane then the general public. ;)

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