Indystorm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Warnings now being issued by Duluth for NW WI for storms with winds in excess of 70 mph moving se at 40 mph. This may be the complex to watch unless something fires farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Severe parameters are astonishing at present per SPC meso page for parts of MN if something goes. They are pretty crazy in central MN and the OFB from the morning convection is now lifting back northward. 95/82 west of MPX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Looks like SPC is thinking the cap might win again for the Upper MS Valley region. Would love to be proven wrong. ...20Z UPDATE... FOR THE UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITY...THE MIDDAY DEMISE OF A LEAD SUPERCELL/SMALL LINEAR CLUSTER NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF THE MINNEAPOLIS-ST PAUL AREA HAS REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN AN APPRECIABLE/FOCUSED SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/CORRIDOR OF ROBUST INSTABILITY FROM SOUTHEAST MN/SOUTHERN WI INTO IL. HAVE THUS REMOVED 30 PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Initiation occuring from around De Witt, IA down into C. Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Looks like SPC is thinking the cap might win again for the Upper MS Valley region. Would love to be proven wrong. ...20Z UPDATE... FOR THE UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITY...THE MIDDAY DEMISE OF A LEAD SUPERCELL/SMALL LINEAR CLUSTER NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF THE MINNEAPOLIS-ST PAUL AREA HAS REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN AN APPRECIABLE/FOCUSED SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/CORRIDOR OF ROBUST INSTABILITY FROM SOUTHEAST MN/SOUTHERN WI INTO IL. HAVE THUS REMOVED 30 PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES... Well, the cap has almost always won this summer, so my thoughts are that potential isn't very good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Initiation occuring from around De Witt, IA down into C. Illinois. I will be pleasantly surprised if these storms can survive and break the cap. I'm thinking they will be like the southern WI storms of Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Initiation occuring from around De Witt, IA down into C. Illinois. Nice tower to the northwest out the window here. I just drove through a light shower with very large rain drops near Hillsdale a bit ago. There's a line of towering cumulus extending southeast/northwest back towards the cell west of Clinton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 These storms over far eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois are almost stationary, as they keep backbuilding. Very localized so far, but a few very lucky locations are really getting dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 My buddy from Galva Illinois just said they're having pea to marble sized hail with that storm northeast of Galesburg. I could hear the rain/hail pouring in the background. Ahhhh I'm jealous as hell right now lol. Looks like a potential flash flood event all along this developing line from far eastern Iowa to southeast of the QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 While not rated as high and not as damaging (or killer), this may be one of the stronger tornadoes since Northwood, 2007 for North Dakota. I am thinking it could get upgraded to low-end EF4. Why? Because remember the Pocahontas, Iowa tornado being rated high-end EF3 then upgraded to low-end EF4 a few weeks later. The damage reminds me of that same tornado that happened on either April 9th of 10th of this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 NW WI is now having some svr storms moving se once again after a brief lull. Maybe things might still get interesting this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 192228Z - 192330Z COMPLEX OF TSTMS HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY AS IT CROSSED FROM NERN MN INTO NWRN WI. THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT ALONG TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND SHOULD PROPAGATE TOWARD GREEN BAY LATER THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 04-05Z. IT APPEARS VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IF N-S LINE SEGMENT BEGINS TO BOW AND SURGE SEWD. GIVEN THE AIR MASS IN PLACE A WW WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR LAKE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 NW WI is now having some svr storms moving se once again after a brief lull. Maybe things might still get interesting this evening. those are our only shot at storms here in northern IL...the HRRR has been trying to bring them down here in a weakening phase. 91/72 BEHIND the lake breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 those are our only shot at storms here in northern IL...the HRRR has been trying to bring them down here in a weakening phase. 91/72 BEHIND the lake breeze Say it isn't so!? I probably shouldn't get sucked into model watching again tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Say it isn't so!? I probably shouldn't get sucked into model watching again tonight. New storm watch just north/northwest of you. Could get interesting late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 New storm watch just north/northwest of you. Could get interesting late evening. Interesting perhaps. I'm glad I have low expectations (and previously had no expectations). This is the 4th watch that portions of my CWA has had in the last 2 days (all ST watches). Shows how liberally they issue watches these days. I don't know if they used to be so liberal with those, or if it is a recent occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Saturday's threat is looking not very good anymore. The trough isn't nearly as strong as originally forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Cell over ND looking pretty impressive. Probably because ND hasn't got their daily twister yet today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drizzle Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I have a friend reporting a tornado (probably a funnel cloud) in East Peoria, IL or very close to there. I'm unsure if it touched down or not. Conveniently enough KILX's radar is down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Saturday's threat is looking not very good anymore. The trough isn't nearly as strong as originally forecast. Was just discussing this with a friend. Never count anything out with that amount of instability. This past week has thrown out all my pre-conceived notions of "unbreakable" mid level capping as well as what storms can do given the insane amount of instability we've had. I'm sure at least North Dakota and northern MN are going to have some more tornadic "fun" this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 One of the cells in NW Wisconsin is now tor-warned. Doppler radar indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 That cell to the northeast of Minneapolis looks beastly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 If that one nasty cell keeps up, someone in the MKX CWA is going to get blasted. It has definitely taken a bit of a right turn as it has intensified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Looks to have a strong couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 New warning on the line to the southeast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Is Bow still in the Dells? If so, he might be in for a surprise. Obviously extrapolating at this point is pointless, but the Dells and Madison look to be the larger cities in the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I'd be happy if the chicagoland area gets ANY rain at this point. I was really hyped/monitoring conditions ALL day yesterday. Counting down the hours etc. Late evening was a tease. Especially with that cell southeast of Madison, Wisconsin that looked great. Once it came closer to the border. Gone. Not even a drizzle : \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Not a shock that these storms are exploding up there in WI, huge parameters including Supercell Composite >50, Sig Tor (effective layer) >12, >6,500 SBCAPE, 0-1km shear >35kts, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I'd be happy if the chicagoland area gets ANY rain at this point. I was really hyped/monitoring conditions ALL day yesterday. Counting down the hours etc. Late evening was a tease. Especially with that cell southeast of Madison, Wisconsin that looked great. Once it came closer to the border. Gone. Not even a drizzle : \ Same here. If we just get some of the eastern edge of the small rain shield associated with the storms in Northern Wisconsin, it will be satisfying enough. I think SW and SC Wisconsin may have some problems on their hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Is the temp and dew point difference b/w Milwaukee and Madison due to the lake breeze or warm frontal position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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