OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 GFS ensembles bring the second low right over the BM and into the Gulf of Maine. Now we just need to hold this for 180 hours. that's not hard at all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Saturday I think it might end up being Friday or Fri nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I think it might end up being Friday or Fri nite It's possible if the s/w is faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 GFS ensembles bring the second low right over the BM and into the Gulf of Maine. Now we just need to hold this for 180 hours. The problem for mby is that it really can't get much better. That troubles me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 GFS ensembles bring the second low right over the BM and into the Gulf of Maine. Now we just need to hold this for 180 hours. That track is a "classic" for big time snows here, I just don't like being in the bullseye this far out though......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The problem for mby is that it really can't get much better. That troubles me. It's early so that's obviously something to keep in mind, but I just don't want the shortwave to dig for oil in the Midwest. If the clipper were just a little stronger, it would help dampen the flow just a bit and prevent the storm from getting too close. That said, it would be silly to worry about the details this far out..just something I have in mind, that's all. My concerns are much different than those to the west, or up by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 it was pretty cold on that lost analog.. dec 26 1983.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I think the upcoming pattern is going be great for snow north of Philly..south of there not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I think the upcoming pattern is going be great for snow north of Philly..south of there not good Rule #1 of a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Does it look like any p-type issues on the coast or SE Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Ensembles keep some sort of a low east of SNE through the 11-15 day period. This doesn't mean that we have 1 single low sitting there, but the fact that ensemble members at some point have low pressure off the coast, with s/w timing differences. Therefore, the mean appears to have low pressure wobbling east and west. All that really means is that maybe 1 or 2 more shots after whatever happens this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Does it look like any p-type issues on the coast or SE Mass? Verbatim, yes, but way too early to even discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 12z GGEM went out to lunch today. Lead clipper s/w does diddly and the follow up system gives a high 5 to Chi Town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 12z GGEM went out to lunch today. Lead clipper s/w does diddly and the follow up system gives a high 5 to Chi Town. We will toss it....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 What has me a little concerend is the 0z euro has this storm cutting west of NE right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Does it look like any p-type issues on the coast or SE Mass? Anytime you see Scott tell moneypit Mike that he should feel good, there really isn't a need fof that question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 We will toss it....... From a continuity standpoint it's a substantial shift from 00z, so it's possible. We'll have to see what Dr No says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 What has me a little concerend is the 0z euro has this storm cutting west of NE right now.... But the Ens. are East of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 What are we looking at in terms of the clipper/norlun trough. It seems the GFS wants to hit areas Northeast of NYC the hardest....other models not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 What has me a little concerend is the 0z euro has this storm cutting west of NE right now.... I thk the smart money is on a hugger with a mixed bag along the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 But the Ens. are East of that. I will take what the ens have over the op for now until we start getting closer in for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Clipper Bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I thk the smart money is on a hugger with a mixed bag along the cp. That would be my guess, Coast will have issues being its still early and looks to be a closer track if it ends up that way..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 man the continuity here is very impressive in the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 man the continuity here is very impressive in the last few days. yeah... starting to get that tingly feeling in that special place down there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 yeah... starting to get that tingly feeling in that special place down there.... Every now and then you just don't need to alter anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 SSTS on Dec 13th are still going to be pretty hostile.....ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 SSTS on Dec 13th are still going to be pretty hostile.....ouch. Yeah thats the biggest issue i think for coastal communitys and just inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Anytime you see Scott tell moneypit Mike that he should feel good, there really isn't a need fof that question. LOL well I mean he should feel "comfortable", I didn't mean to hint at something much warmer. It's not the SST's the are the concern, but rather the actual storm track. Verbatim you would be fine with the gfs op track...and probably even BOS given that the wind will have a more nrly component. Even if winds were howling northeast, I'd feel fine with cold 950-850 temps. We learned just how good a cold airmass and a nice high can be to the coast in previous Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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