Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I don't think a coastal bomb qualifies as a swfe. Something is going to secondary even if the primary cuts west..that's why the concern for all snow/ ice is there inland..and the 00z Euro ens shifting south says that is the way to think for now Also looks like it might end as snow for everyone You just contradicted yourself there. Assuming a coastal bomb, then yes, it would not be a SWFE. If the primary cuts west, and a pops a secondary, then I'd qualify that as a SWFE. I do think the primary storm will remain dominant feature, even if a secondary forms. I do want this to dig South. I want less or a later phase with any lobe of the PV that comes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Differences between this morning's GFS runs and yesterdays are very clear. GOA low is stronger and further east powering a strong jet into the Pac NW. The northern s/w also digs much more, resulting in strong s/w ridging downstream and then we're off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 ouch well you'll be in plymouth, no? or home for break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 well you'll be in plymouth, no? or home for break? Still will be in Plymouth. We'll see how much the latitude helps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 FWIW, the track ofthe low on the euro ensemble mean moved slightly east on last nights 00z run compared to yesterdays 12run. Looks like the 00z track was from the eastern tip of LI across the CC canal. Yesterday's 12z run was more of a PVD-PSM track. I think many people from northern CT points north will be pretty happy with a LI to CC Canal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Still will be in Plymouth. We'll see how much the latitude helps... probably a good deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 probably a good deal. No argument there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Differences between this morning's GFS runs and yesterdays are very clear. GOA low is stronger and further east powering a strong jet into the Pac NW. The northern s/w also digs much more, resulting in strong s/w ridging downstream and then we're off to the races. But is it correct in it's depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The 12/13th deal looks like it could be my first and only Bridgton schellacking, might be doing a midyear transfer elsewhere. If this storm comes to fruition as GFS suggests it could be a pretty deep snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I'm actually wondering if a big icestorm isn't a big possibility for early next week..with the cold high to the north locking in cold air at surface... When I looked at the Euro map there was no high to the north. Is other modelling showing it? That would make me feel much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Well whatever happens Friday/Saturday should be able to get at least snow showers down this way, maybe coating the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 FWIW, the track ofthe low on the euro ensemble mean moved slightly east on last nights 00z run compared to yesterdays 12run. Looks like the 00z track was from the eastern tip of LI across the CC canal. Yesterday's 12z run was more of a PVD-PSM track. I think many people from northern CT points north will be pretty happy with a LI to CC Canal track. Maybe CT poeple in Litchfield County........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The 12/13th deal looks like it could be my first and only Bridgton schellacking, might be doing a midyear transfer elsewhere. If this storm comes to fruition as GFS suggests it could be a pretty deep snowfall. Jay, don't let the lack of snow scare you off--it's only December, man! Seriously thinking of transfer? Where/why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Well whatever happens Friday/Saturday should be able to get at least snow showers down this way, maybe coating the ground? Not necessarily--according to the UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 an important vort in the equation: 06z is on the left, and yesterday's 12z is on the right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Not necessarily--according to the UK What's the UK show? I hate trying to read that map...makes my head hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 at least on the NAM we can get an early look at the first clipper and how the set up out west is looking, but still at the limits of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 You just contradicted yourself there. Assuming a coastal bomb, then yes, it would not be a SWFE. If the primary cuts west, and a pops a secondary, then I'd qualify that as a SWFE. I do think the primary storm will remain dominant feature, even if a secondary forms. I do want this to dig South. I want less or a later phase with any lobe of the PV that comes south. I would not qualify it as a swfe unless development is weaker than the primary causing the swfe. If there is strong redevelopment isn't that a Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 It's beyond the typical useful range but I thought the NAM wasn't half bad actually particularly in the evolution of the GOA. And the NAO block is far enough west to help us particularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I would not qualify it as a swfe unless development is weaker than the primary causing the swfe. If there is strong redevelopment isn't that a Miller B? I don't think Miller B primary lows can go west and north of our region. It tends (per my understanding) to be a clipper type system cutting under us and exploding off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I don't think Miller B primary lows can go west and north of our region. It tends (per my understanding) to be a clipper type system cutting under us and exploding off the coast. ahhhhh. I didn't know that. I guess for me a swfe is defined by the precipitation being primarily caused by sw flow aloft/overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 FWIW, the track ofthe low on the euro ensemble mean moved slightly east on last nights 00z run compared to yesterdays 12run. Looks like the 00z track was from the eastern tip of LI across the CC canal. Yesterday's 12z run was more of a PVD-PSM track. I think many people from northern CT points north will be pretty happy with a LI to CC Canal track. Violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Violently agree That would seem like a great track for me, heavy, heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Just saw my first snow showers of the year!....while the sun was out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 That would seem like a great track for me, heavy, heavy snow. You'd want it a bit farther east..but the important thing to note is that the ensembles are shifting east/not west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 You'd want it a bit farther east..but the important thing to note is that the ensembles are shifting east/not west Yup...definitely good that we are seeing the ensembles shift east...I would suspect that as we continue to get closer the OP runs will continue to shift east well. Still a small chance this could shift west but once you see the ensembles settle down on a track chances are that track is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The euro ensembles trended higher with heights out west and lower with heights across the SE towards d7. This isn't a bad thing for those who are hoping for this to dig more. The problem is that we have the block moving east, with ridging developing over the northeast...gradually moving to the east. This is what's causing some of the warmer solutions. It's an interesting battle because the euro ensembles almost imply a snow to rain and then snow again as heights crash and the storm nearly stalls east of the Cape. Nobody should get all bent out of shape being 180 hours out, but obviously we have some uncertainties here. That's about as classic as it gets for an East Coast storm. PNA ridge so that all that Pacific energy dives into the Plains and intensifies. Once it gets near the coast......BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yup...definitely good that we are seeing the ensembles shift east...I would suspect that as we continue to get closer the OP runs will continue to shift east well. Still a small chance this could shift west but once you see the ensembles settle down on a track chances are that track is going to happen. hopefully it doesn't ride right up logan11's fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 hopefully it doesn't ride right up logan11's fanny I'd be grabbing a rope and chair if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 When does the next Euro come out? Isn't it around noonish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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