CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Op Euro might hit be close to hitting SNE after 240 hours lol. Weird solution...landfall in Florida...back over the water and then moving up the coast with positive height anomalies over the North Atlantic and a pretty decent midwest trough. Donna?? I still think it's a far cry...but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Donna?? I still think it's a far cry...but who knows. GEFS seems to want to be at the BM too, so far off but expecting slugs of trop moisture this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Potential heavy rains from a 'Cane in 7 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 more like 9 but yeah it could happen Potential heavy rains from a 'Cane in 7 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Gotta love the 00z Euro, 00/06z GFS. Brings Irene (or whatever is left) up over CT/RI/MA. Out in lala model land right now but something to start monitoring after todays rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Gotta love the 00z Euro, 00/06z GFS. Brings Irene (or whatever is left) up over CT/RI/MA. Out in lala model land right now but something to start monitoring after todays rains. Nice 850 wind speeds on the Euro, this has potential now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Nice 850 wind speeds on the Euro, this has potential now. With a track as such, you'd think we would see some pretty good gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 With a track as such, you'd think we would see some pretty good gusts. Yea could be a nice southerly flow , some good body surfing, fishing weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hey guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Phil paster, river flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 No... the 850 line is still in Canada... 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Potential is there for a heavy windswept rain event enhanced by ET transition, something to watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro would probably give 40kt+ gusts to SNE and wipe Albany off the map with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro would probably give 40kt+ gusts to SNE and wipe Albany off the map with rain. NOGAPS and GGEM farther east. That's a good sign, often times they are the furthest west/ too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro would probably give 40kt+ gusts to SNE and wipe Albany off the map with rain. 8" in 48hr along the NH/VT border. A tropical deluge would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 8" in 48hr along the NH/VT border. A tropical deluge would be nice. You know there would be epic amounts, if that tracked verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'd suggest folks start stocking up on batteries ,plywood and perishables over the next few days..This one could be retired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Phil punisher probably gust to 60 south facing beaches per Euro, river flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I think the Euro solution would disappoint for all those except people with a hydro fetish. The slow motion and the late/rather tame phase with the digging trough probably means a boring ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I think the Euro solution would disappoint for all those except people with a hydro fetish. The slow motion and the late/rather tame phase with the digging trough probably means a boring ET. Getting an early start on winter Debbie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Getting an early start on winter Debbie? No but I've been tracking things like this for long enough to know what tropical threats to get excited about and which not to. This could certainly be high impact with a major hydro event... but I think the damaging wind threat is extremely low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 No but I've been tracking things like this for long enough to know what tropical threats to get excited about and which not to. This could certainly be high impact with a major hydro event... but I think the damaging wind threat is extremely low. This would def be more of a hydro for sure. That's a ton of rain, west of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This would def be more of a hydro for sure. Slow motion and non-explosive baroclinic forcing says blah to me for impacts outside of rain. That said if the trough digs more sharply and the storm winds up very strong and just offshore maybe something more interesting happens but that seems extraordinarily unlikely now. I do have rain in the forecast for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Slow motion and non-explosive baroclinic forcing says blah to me for impacts outside of rain. That said if the trough digs more sharply and the storm winds up very strong and just offshore maybe something more interesting happens but that seems extraordinarily unlikely now. I do have rain in the forecast for Sunday. I think as is, there would be some pretty good squalls...almost like what Floyd had, along the south coast. However, it would be nice to have a sharp trough dig down and try to intensify it baroclincally. I think the GFS tried to do this a few days ago. I won't be here, so hopefully you get some good impacts from it in some shape or form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Dumb question based on something I saw on another board. WRT Irene and if she was to hit Florida, if the path goes over the Everglades/Lake Okechobee, does it gain any energy? I would think you only strengthen a cane over really warm ocean waters due to the available kinetic energy I know, sounds dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Dumb question based on something I saw on another board. WRT Irene and if she was to hit Florida, if the path goes over the Everglades/Lake Okechobee, does it gain any energy? I would think you only strengthen a cane over really warm ocean waters due to the available kinetic energy I know, sounds dumb Not really..lol. The glades do have warm water, so if anything...it slows the weakening of the storm down. It's a good question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Not really..lol. The glades do have warm water, so if anything...it slows the weakening of the storm down. It's a good question. Well, that makes sense, but I could not imagine a storm strengthening over inland lakes/swamps, etc My knowledge of tropical development is even less than snowstorm development, if that is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well, that makes sense, but I could not imagine a storm strengthening over inland lakes/swamps, etc My knowledge of tropical development is even less than snowstorm development, if that is possible There was Erin in OK who actually strengthened through latent heat processes...over land! It basically took on a life of it's own and that is such an outlier that I wouldn't even use it as an example. http://www.srh.noaa....bune/fall07.pdf The only time a storm may strengthen, is when it encounters a trough, and baroclinic (temperature advection) processes take over. By then, even though it may be the same low pressure, it's an entirely different process of intensification. No longer do we have the warm and moist high octane fuel underneath the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 There was Erin in OK who actually strengthened through latent heat processes...over land! It basically took on a life of it's own and that is such an outlier that I wouldn't even use it as an example. http://www.srh.noaa....bune/fall07.pdf The only time a storm may strengthen, is when it encounters a trough, and baroclinic (temperature advection) processes take over. By then, even though it may be the same low pressure, it's an entirely different process of intensification. No longer do we have the warm and moist high octane fuel underneath the low. Neat article. I remember that vaguely. Good analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I think as is, there would be some pretty good squalls...almost like what Floyd had, along the south coast. However, it would be nice to have a sharp trough dig down and try to intensify it baroclincally. I think the GFS tried to do this a few days ago. I won't be here, so hopefully you get some good impacts from it in some shape or form. Yeah I guess I think of Floyd as a wind disappointment for most (most places didn't even come close to sustained TS winds) and the pattern was infinitely more favorable to get damaging winds up here with the thing merging with the sharp trough digging out of the Great Lakes. Given that this thing will be crawling through teh Carolinas, most likely, I have a hard time buying an exciting wind event. The hydro issues... especially if we develop a PRE in fron t of a slow moving storm could be huge depending on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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